1 competitive injection molding david o. kazmer, p.e., ph.d. sme/eastec 2004 conference springfield,...
TRANSCRIPT
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COMPETITIVEINJECTION MOLDING
David O. Kazmer, P.E., Ph.D.
SME/Eastec 2004 Conference
Springfield, MA
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Agenda
• Economic Structures & Data
• Evaluation of Injection Molding
• Barriers to Competition
• Modern Molding Technologies
• Summary
3
Cost StructuresTotal
Production Costs
TotalLabor Costs
TotalConsumables
Cost
TotalFacilities
Costs
Machinery
Maint’nce
Facilities
Yield
$/Hr
Output
Downtime
Energy
Resin
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Cost Parameters
• Cost parameters N.E. China– Operator labor $13/hr $0.70/hr– Eng/Mgt labor $30/hr $3/hr– Energy cost $0.08/kWh– ABS resin $1477/ton $950/ton– Machinery cost $30/hr $15/hr– Facilities cost $7.00/ft2 $4.20/ft2
– Maintenance rate 10% 20%
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Agenda
• Economic Structures & Data• Evaluation of Injection Molding
– Class 0: Obsolete– Class 1: Standard– Class 2: Efficient– Class 3: Lights Out
• Barriers to Competition• Modern Molding Technologies• Summary
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Injection Molding Economics
• Case Study for a Mid-Sized Molder– 200 million parts per year– Average part weight: 10g
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Class 0: ObsoleteOperating Conditions
• 8 cavities/mold with cold runners• Poorly selected hydraulic machines (26 kW)• 50 seconds per cycle (optimistic)
– Cooling issues & semi-automatic
• 95% quality level (optimistic)• 1 operator per 1 machine• 1 eng/mgt per 15 operators• 2 shifts, 5 days per week• 4 hour setup per 10,000 parts
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Class 0: ObsoleteFactory Characteristics
#Operators#Machines #Eng/Mgt Energy Use
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Class 0: ObsoleteCost Data
0
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To
tal
Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
($M
illi
on
s)
New England China
Facilities
Labor
Energy costs
Resin costs
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Class 1: StandardOperating Conditions
• 16 cavities/mold with 50% hot runners• Well selected hydraulic machines (30 kW)• 45 seconds per cycle (optimistic)• 98% quality level (optimistic)• 1 operator per 2 machines• 1 eng/mgt per 15 operators• 2 shifts, 5 days per week• 2 hour setup per 10,000 parts
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Class 1: StandardFactory Characteristics
#Operators#Machines #Eng/Mgt Energy Use
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Class 1: StandardCost Data
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tal
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ctio
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ost
($M
illi
on
s)
New England China
Facilities
Labor
Energy costs
Resin costs
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Class 2: EfficientOperating Conditions
• 32 cavities/mold with hot runners• Electric machines (26 kW)• 40 seconds per cycle, fully automatic• 99% quality level• 1 operator per 4 machine• 1 eng/mgt per 15 operators• 3 shifts, 5 days per week• 1 hour setup per 10,000 parts
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Class 2: EfficientFactory Characteristics
#Operators#Machines #Eng/Mgt Energy Use
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Class 2: EfficientCost Data
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To
tal
Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
($M
illi
on
s)
New England China
Facilities
Labor
Energy costs
Resin costs
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Class 3: Lights OutOperating Conditions
• 32 cavities/mold with hot runners• Electric machines (22 kW)• 35 seconds per cycle
– Fully automatic including crating, etc.
• 99.9% quality level• 1 operator per all machines• 1 eng/mgt per all machines• 3 shifts, 7 days per week• 0.5 hour setup per 10,000 parts
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Class 3: Lights OutFactory Characteristics
#Operators#Machines #Eng/Mgt Energy Use
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Class 3: Lights OutCost Data
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ctio
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($M
illi
on
s)
New England China
Facilities
Labor
Energy costs
Resin costs
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0
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0 1 2 3
Factory Class
To
tal
Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
($M
illi
on
s)
• New England
Comparison
• China
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0 1 2 3
Factory Class
To
tal
Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
($M
illi
on
s)
Shipping
Production
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Head to Head Competitive Assessment
0 1 2 3
0 -139% -280% -447% -512%
1 -7% -71% -146% -175%
2 39% 3% -40% -57%
3 52% 23% -10% -23%
China Factory ClassN
ew E
ngla
nd F
acto
ry C
lass
0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
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Validation: World Production
• US Plastics industry went from surplus of $894 million in 2000 to a deficit of $1,387 million in 2002– A swing of $2,281 million.
• In 2001, China exported $6bn of fabricated plastic products last year. – China also exports plastics in many other forms…
– In 2002 China doubled the volume of its exports
• China is world's largest petrochemical importer– Chinese petrochemical demand is doubling every 8 years.
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Validation: Molded Utensils• In 2003, US imported more than 100bn plastic bags
• A coalition (Intelplast Group, PCL Packaging and Sonoco Products) claimed that Asian countries were flooding the US market with below-cost PE bags and demanded an anti-dumping duty
• In September, the US Inter’l Trade Commission determined that "there is a reasonable indication that a US industry is threatened with material injury by reason of imports of polyethylene retail carrier bags from China, Malaysia and Thailand that are allegedly sold in the United States at less than fair value".
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To
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Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
($M
illi
on
s)
New England China
Facilities
Labor
Energy costs
Resin costs
A producer of plastic utensils found that they could purchase products from China for less than the cost of their resin.
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Agenda
• Economic Structures & Data
• Evaluation of Injection Molding
• Barriers to Competition
• Modern Molding Technologies
• Summary
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Resource Cost as aCompetitive Barrier
• Labor rates
• Material costs
• Overhead costs
• These are hard to control in U.S.
• Need to use less resources!– Or avoid commodity markets
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Capability as aCompetitive Barrier
• Automation requires very high consistency• “Open loop” strategy:
– Monitor & control inputs– Accept all parts without inspection
• “Closed loop” strategy:– Characterize process (design of experiments)– Monitor outputs– Accept good parts– Adjust process to fix problems
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Investment as aCompetitive Barrier
• Each application requires:– Automation– Sensors– Software– Extended setup times
• Investment is significant w.r.t. tooling costs
• Difficult to earn back unless high volume• Very difficult to try unproven technology
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Agenda
• Economic Structures & Data
• Evaluation of Injection Molding
• Barriers to Competition
• Modern Molding Technologies
• Summary
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Modern Manufacturing
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Molding Technologies:Automation
• Robotics provides for:– Reduced labor content (demolding & degating)– Repeatable cycle times– Fast cycle times
• Trend to continue:– Cheap computers– Low cost motors &
standard designs
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Molding Technologies:All Electric Machines
• All electric advantages– ~50% of the power– Silent operation– Cleanliness– Precision– Reduced AC costs
• Trend to continue– Automotive hybrids
fuel motor technology– Asian machine technology improves
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Molding Technologies:Hot Runners
• Melt delivery systems provide:– Low pressure drops– Fast cycle times– Zero material waste– Tight quality control
• Trend to continue:– Lower priced systems– New technologies– Economic decisions
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Molding Technologies:Cavity Pressure Control
• Closed loop pressure feedback provides:– Automatic V/P switchover– Improved consistency– Quality control data
• Trend to continue:– Low cost sensors– Cheap computers– New technologies
• Improved control• Improved sensing
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Molding Technologies:Quality Control
• Quality control systems should enable:– Automatic acceptance or rejection– 100% part testing– Automatic cycling– Variance analysis
• Trend to grow:– SPC is crude compared
to emerging methods– Sensor:analysis explosion– Improved capabilities
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1-D Flow In A Tube
• Hagen-Poiseuille– Viscous, laminar flow (constant viscosity)– Relates flow rate, pressure, and viscosity
• Flow conductance, k, defined as:
L
PRQ
8
4
L
R
P
Qk
8
4
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Flow Network Analysis
• Consider a two-branched hot runner system
• Geometry & flow conductance known– Develop flow conductance matrix
1
2 3 4
5 6
6
5
4
3
2
1
4646
3535
46462424
35352323
242324231212
1212
6
5
4
3
2
1
0000
0000
000
000
00
0000
P
P
P
P
P
P
kk
kk
kkkk
kkkk
kkkkkk
kk
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
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Flow Network Analysis
• Apply boundary conditions:– P1, P5, & P6 observed– Q2, Q3, & Q4 equal 0
• Solve on-line in real-time
1
2 3 4
5 6
obs
obs
obs
P
P
P
P
P
P
kk
kk
kkkk
kkkk
kkkkkk
kk
Q
Q
Q
6
5
4
3
2
1
4646
3535
46462424
35352323
242324231212
1212
6
5
1
0000
0000
000
000
00
0000
0
0
0
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On-Line Analysis Results
• Pressures– Mostly similar– Flow rate & fill effects?
• Flow Rates– Not previously
observable on-line
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 5 10 15Time (sec)
Pre
ssur
e (M
Pa)
Gate 1
Gate 2
Gate 3
Gate 4
Injection
0
50
100
150
200
0 5 10 15Time (sec)
Flo
w R
ate
(cc/
sec)
Gate 1
Gate 2
Gate 3
Gate 4
1
3
2
4
5
6
Coming ability to estimate part weight, shrinkage, melt temperature, …
BEFORE MOLD OPENS!!
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Molding Technologies:Electronic Data Systems
• Electronic data systems should enable:– Production scheduling– Materials requirements planning– Real time plant feedback– Real time process feedback
Suppliers
Customers
Suppliers
Customers
Application Server
ApplicationData
PDA
Computer
CD burner
Network
MachineData
SupplierData
Printer
ApplicationData
Computer
Printer
SupplierData
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2
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1311
10
9
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4
3
12
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2324
2526
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TruCo Molding Company 121 Producers Lane Flora, IL 54120
WORK ORDER
Date 8-May Shot Size 5.2 in Application Printer Tray 1: Ram Position, Velocity (0,20%)
Machine Maxis 450 2: Ram Position, Velocity (40,45%) Material ABS4400 3: Ram Position, Velocity (80,10%)
Drying Time 2 Hours 4: Ram Position, Velocity (90,5%) Drying Temp 230 F Cushion 0.4 in
… … … …
Flimold 8 Nueva Via Monterrey, Mexico
ORDEN DE TRABAJO Fecha 8-May Tamaño Del Tiro 124 mm
Uso Printer Tray 1: Posición, Velocidad (0,18%) Máquina HPE500 2: Posición, Velocidad (40,40%)
Resina ABS4400 3: Posición, Velocidad (80,9%) Tiempo Se Secado 2 Horas 4: Posición, Velocidad (90,4%)
Temperatura De Sequía 110 C Amortiguador 9 mm … … … …
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Many Molding Technologies
• Coinjection• Dynamic feed• Gas assist• In-mold assembly• In-mold color• In-mold film• In-mold painting• Insert molding• Lost core molding
• Mold filling analysis• MuCell• Pad printing• Pulsed heating• Rapid prototyping• Stack molds• Thin wall• Two-shot molding• Water assist
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Head to Head Competitive Assessment
0 1 2 3
0 -139% -280% -447% -512%
1 -7% -71% -146% -175%
2 39% 3% -40% -57%
3 52% 23% -10% -23%
China Factory ClassN
ew E
ngla
nd F
acto
ry C
lass
0 1 2 3
0
1
2
3
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Summary
• Competitiveness isn’t all about labor rates– Automation & localization can largely offset
• True commodities are in jeopardy.
• It is about efficiency …– Knowing which/how to leverage technology
• … and differentiation– Market understanding, penetration, & recognition– Product & process specialization– Cost & time performance
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Final Thoughts
• Mid-Term Issue: Oil & Natural Gas Supply– Increasing Asian demand– Weakening dollar
• Government debt• Trade deficit• Euro as preferred currency
• Long-Term: Sustained Labor Demand– Global supply of all labor– Improving supply chains