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Critical Water Informationfor Floods to Droughts

Hydrology Program Priorities

National HIC Meeting

January 25, 2006

Responsive to Natural Disasters Forecasts for Hazard Risk Management

Valuable Data for Local and State GovernmentsDetailed Information for Zip Code Level Analysis

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Protecting Life, Livelihood,and Way of Life

River channelDevelopedShrubs/GrassAgricultureWetlandsForecast PointForecast Basin

River Services(600 miles per forecast point)

Water Resource Services(6 square mile forecast basins)

River Conditions Soil Conditions

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Program Team Composition

• River Forecast Centers

• National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

• Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Hydrologic Services Division

• Office of Hydrologic Development

Program Customers

• Federal Water Agencies

• Commercial Waterway Navigation

• Emergency and Water Resource Managers

• General Public

Councils associated with the Hydrology Program

• Research, Platform Allocation, Observing Systems, CIO,

Education, International Affairs

NOAA Hydrology Program

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Office of Hydrologic Development Gary Carter, Director

Hydrology LaboratoryChief

Planning, Programming, and CoordinationLinda Ingram, NOAA Program Liaison

Donna Page, NWS Program LiaisonKen Pavelle, Matrix Support Focal Point

3 FTE

Resource Staff5 FTE

Hydrologic Science and Modeling BranchGeoff Bonnin, Chief

13.5 FTE

Hydrologic Software Engineering BranchJon Roe, Chief

20.5 FTE

Senior ScientistPedro Restrepo

Office of Hydrologic Development Organization Chart

45 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Positions

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AlgorithmServices

DataServices

ControlServices

DisplayServices

SecurityServices

Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

Federal agenciesState, regional, and local cooperatorsUniversitiesPrivate sectorInternational organizations

River Stage & Flow

Surface Water Storage

Water Supply Availability

Flood Potential

Water Quality

Soil Moisture

RunoffSnow Water Equivalent

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Near-Surface

Deep

Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells)

Vector Information (River Segments)

Hydrology XML ConsortiumEvolving to become “pulse” of CHPS

http://www.weather.gov/oh/hydroxc/index.html

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Collaborative ResearchAreas of Emphasis

Observations

Analysis

Model Forecasts

Post-processed Model Data

Forecaster

User (public, industry…)

ForecastSystem

Data Assimilation

CommunityModels

CommunityObservations

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Long-term Vision: Integrated Water Science

Coupled ocean/atmospheric/ land-surface model (global)

Coupled atmospheric/land-surface model (regional)

Interface with Estuary Models, Water Quality Models

WEATHER & CLIMATE FOCUS

WATER FOCUS

Observing SystemsCommon Hydrologic

Land-Surface Modeling System

(Uncoupled)Research

Labs

Land Surface Hydrology & Water Resources Modeling

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R&D Algorithms

Prototype Operational Algorithms

“Test” Environment

Collaborative R&D Partners (NOAA Labs,

Universities)

Operational Implementation

Validation & Verification

New Science

Users & Customers

(RFCs, WFOs, Other Agencies)

Feedback

Hydrology Testbed: RTO Process

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• Enable Full Utilization of Existing Observing Systems

– Development of data processing and assimilation capabilities

• Science-to-Operations

– Test new stream flow prediction models and forecasting techniques for time scales of hours to months

Long-term Vision:Hydrology Testbed

Airborne

Satellite

Radar

In-Situ

physiographic

New physiographic

data

AHPS Infrastructure

New observing systems

NOAA

NASA USGS

USDA

DODEPA

DOE

Water Resources Data Assimilation and

CHPS

OTHERS

Experimental River Forecast Center

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From Weather and Climate Predictions to Water Management

Weather and Climate

Predictions:

Temperature

Precipitation

Wind, …

Weather and Climate

Predictions:

Temperature

Precipitation

Wind, …

Hydrology and Water Resources Modeling, Data

Assimilation

Water Management

Water Management

Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction

Water PredictionWater Prediction

Decision Support Tools

Drought Mitigation

Flood Management

Flash Flood Prediction

Water Supply

Transportation

Emergency Management

Agriculture

Ecosystem Stewardship

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Hydrologic Modeling

Meteorological inputs

Physical, Institutional,& Legal Features

Topography• Vegetation, land use• Lakes, glaciers• Soil properties• Ground water• River channel shape• River depth/flow• Dams, locks, levees• Reservoir operations• Irrigation, drains• Water rights•

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High Resolution Soil Moisture Forecasts – near term activities

Test prototype version of soil moisture products from CONUS runs of HL-RMS and compare with other models

Conduct economic impact analyses and case studies to identify the potential benefits of soil moisture forecasts

UZTWC UZFWC

LZ

TW

C

LZ

FS

C

LZ

FP

C

UZTWC UZFWC

LZ

TW

C

LZ

FS

C

LZ

FP

C

SMC1

SMC3

SMC4

SMC5

SMC2

Sacramento Model Storages

Sacramento Model Storages

Physically-basedSoil Layers andSoil Moisture

Modified Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model

In each grid and in each time step, transform conceptual soil water content to physically-based water content

CONUS Physically-based Soil Moisture Fields at 4km Grid Scale

gridded precipitation

CONUS-scale 4km gridded soil moisture and temperature prototype products

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Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) – next steps

NWSRFS Data Service – deliver, via AWIPS Operational Build 7.2, first increment of distributed hydrologic modeling capability integrated into NWSRFS using CHPS Data Services components proven in River, Reservoir, & Snow (RRS) pre-processor proof-of-concept.

Hydrology XML Consortium – build schema-compliant XML read/write adapters, develop SHEF-XML translators, develop common dictionary, move Consortium beyond just OHD.

Future NWSRFS Enhancements –

Reservoir model: provide RFCs with a CHPS service to run the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Reservoir System Simulation program (HEC-ResSim) as an integral part of NWS operationsAdditional Hydraulic Models: identify the potential applications and feasibility for operational use of the USACE River Analysis System (HEC-RAS)Rapid Prototype Opportunity: examine WL/Delft Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) infrastructure to expedite migration to CHPS

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Debris Flow Pilot Project

• Interagency team chartered in December 2004

• Team activities

– Two day meeting (Jan. 31 - Feb. 1, 2005)

– Focus areas:

• Customer identification/pilot project area

• Models and modifications

• Communications protocols/data acquisition mechanisms

• Requirements for budget, personnel, operation and maintenance costs, etc.

– Plan delivered in July 2005

– Prototype for Southern California during Winter 2005-6

Long-term Vision: Debris Flow Watches and Warnings

• Land use/cover

• Terrain

• Soil type

• Precipitation Analyses

• Precipitation and Soil Moisture Forecasts

• Debris Flow Analyses

• Service Delivery

NOAA/USGS

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Working Together: NOAA’s Science and Technology Infusion and Hydrology Programs

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IT/SoftwareManager

AHPSWater Resources

Science Manager

NIDIS“Development Test”

Environment

Core Projectand NASA grant

Stage1: Hydrology Testbed

Cluster Computing

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Stage 1: Hydrology Testbed

• Development System for Water Resource Models

– Structured software compatible with the Community Hydrologic Prediction System

– Open platform for collaborative R&D and RTO, including objective and transparent testing

– One-stop storehouse for new and emerging capabilities and experimental products

– Laboratory for prototyping the next-generation hydrologic forecasting system

and its computational and communications infrastructure

• “Operational” Environment

– National domain

• Full domain modeled, focus on RFC test basins

– Develop/test new science, demonstrate pathway to operations, conduct retrospective analyses

– Requires modest cluster computing resources

– Staff

• Science Coordinator

• Software Development/Architecture Specialist

• Synergism with Other NOAA Testbeds

– Climate Testbed

– Hydromet Testbed

– Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) Testbeds

• Oversight - HOSIP/OSIP

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Stage 1: Hydrology Testbed

HOSIP HOSIP

HMT

Cluster Computing

Climate

Testbed

AHPS Water Resources

OHDInternal Research:Core Project, other

GAPP, Other

OHD Collaborative Research,

incl. HEPEX

(DMIP) (NLDAS)

Hydrology Testbed

River Forecast Centers

HEPEX

Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

NOAA Hydrology Program Strategic PlanFunding sources: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/OGP, NASA

HOSIP HOSIP

HMT

Cluster Computing

Climate

Testbed

AHPS Water Resources

OHDInternal Research:Core Project, other

GAPP, Other

OHD Collaborative Research,

incl. HEPEX

(DMIP) (NLDAS)

Hydrology Testbed

River Forecast Centers

HEPEX

Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

NOAA Hydrology Program Strategic PlanFunding sources: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/OGP, NASA

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Hydrology Program Objectives

Outcomes

• Improved Ecosystem Management

Contribute mercury concentration predictions for the Gulf of Mexico Mercury

Contamination Project (collaborating NOAA Programs: ER, EO, FM, AQ, EM)

• Increased Economic Benefits using Water Forecasts and Information

Contribute gridded forecasts of soil moisture and temperature for the National

Integrated Drought Information System (STI, LFW, EM, RDS, COA, CPP, CE)

• Reduced Losses due to Floods

Contribute more accurate flood forecasts and warnings via the Advanced

Hydrologic Prediction Service (LFW, CEO, STI)

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Hydrology Program Assessment

Program Priorities

• Extend Hydrologic Forecasting Service to Include:- Community Hydrologic

Prediction System (CHPS)- Data Assimilation

• Meet Customer Needs, e.g., National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

• Provide Infrastructure for Water Quality Forecasts

Water Resource Services• Watershed and soil condition forecasts

for hazard resilient communities

– Run-off or River flow

– Soil moisture

– Soil temperature

– Precipitation

– Snowpack

– Surface storage

– Ground water

– Water temperature

– Water quality

• Short- to long-term water risk forecasts support hazard resistant businesses (including agriculture) and local ecosystem stewardship

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AHPS ProgramPlan

Water ResourcesVision

Science andTechnology

Vision

Future Environment

HOSIP/OSIP

Hydrology Program: Enhancement Process

Current Operational Environment

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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

HOSIP/OSIP

Flash Flood

River Flow(short to long term)

Water Resources Services*

Water QualityForecasts**

*Resources in FY06 Budget**Potential capability currently being considered

Graphical Dissemination

National Integrated Drought Information

System**

AHPS ReviewCommittee

Theme Teams

Hydrologists in ChargeDOH Science Steering Team

NOAA ProgramManagers

Requirement Drivers

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Hydrology Program:

Proposed Oversight Group

Objective: Introduce a process to ensure high priority requirements are being addressed in an effective manner

• Hydrology Program Manager

• OHD Representative

• HSD Representative

• HIC RepresentativeWater PredictionsforLife Decisions