1 economic analysis water resources planning ( ea-wrp ) deep-draft waterborne navigation analysis an...
TRANSCRIPT
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Economic Analysis Water Resources Planning
( EA-WRP )
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation Analysis
An Overview
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Outline or Topic Agenda
– I. Introduction; Purpose & Objectives• General References for Guidance & Procedures
– II. Basis for Benefit Measurement Benefit Categories
– III. Planning Settings
– IV. National Economic Development (NED) Evaluation Process
– V. Other\Notable Economic Considerations
(continued)
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Outline or Topic Agenda (continued)
– VI. National Economic Development (NED Cost(s)
– VII. Navigation Data & Related Sources
– VIII. Abbreviated Exercise(s)– IX. Supplemental Information\Slides
– X. End;
Open Time for Questions/Discussion
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Institute for Water Resources (IWR)
– Navigation & Water Resources Applications Division (CEIWR-NA)
– Ian A. Mathis (Economist); (703) 428-7257
7701 Telegraph Road
Casey Building (Building #2594)
Alexandria, Virginia 22315-3868
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Purpose
– To provide an overview of the requirements and procedures for conducting deep-draft navigation economic analyses in accordance with standards and guidance as applied by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Objective(s)
– Identify the General Concepts and Procedural Steps for Economic Analysis Applied to
the Study of Deep-Draft Waterway Improvements Under National Economic Development (NED) Criteria.
– Identify primary sources of guidance and data , and exposure to some of the general
terminology applied for studies.
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Primary References for Planning and Analytical Guidance
– Water Resource(s) Council’s (WRC) Economic and Environmental Principals and
Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies [alternatively identified as the Principals and Guidelines or “P&G”)
– Engineering Regulation (ER) 1105-2-100 [ alternatively identified as the Planning Guidance Notebook or “PGN” ] (continued)
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Primary References for Planning and Analytical Guidance (continued)
– Planning Manual [IWR Report No. 96-R-21; November 1996]
– National Economic Development (NED) Procedures Manual - Deep-Draft Navigation
[ IWR Report No. 91-R-13; November 1991 ]
– Engineering Manual (EM) 1110-2-1613, Hydraulic Design Guidance for Deep-Draft Navigation
Projects [April 1983 or as currently revised]
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Conceptual Basis for Benefits
– The Reduction In The Value of (Economic) Resources Required to Transport Cargo or Commodities
and
– The Increase In The Value of Output for Associated Goods and Services
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Principal Direct Economic Benefits
– Elimination or Reductions in Transportation Cost(s)
– Benefits for Shift-of-Origin or Shift-of-Destination
– Induced Movements
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Elimination or Reductions In Transportation Costs(s)
– Employment of Larger Vessels
– More Efficient Use of Vessels
– Lower Tug Assistance or Handlings Cost(s)
– Reductions In Transit Time (Waterborne or Landside, etc.)
– Use of Alternative Mode (Land vs. Water, etc.)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Shift-of-Origin/Destination & Induced Movements Benefits
– Shift-of-Origin/Destination - Realignment to/from Other Ports or Transport Facilities
(typically to reduce costs)
– Induced - Change in Mode or Scale of Cargo Throughput Activity and Related Cost(s) Via New
or Unique Movements That Would Not Have Occurred or Existed Without Waterway
Improvements
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Planning Settings
– Historical Conditions
– Existing Conditions
– Future Conditions• “With-Project”
• “Without-Project”
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• “Without-Project” Condition(s)
– In the General Context of Planning: The Most Likely Condition(s) Expected to Prevail Over the
Planning Horizon in the Absence of a Specified Course of Action or Plan.
– Specific to USACE Navigation Studies: The Most Likely Conditions Expected to Prevail
Without the Implementation of Proposed Waterway Improvements.
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• “With-Project” Condition(s)
– In the General Context of Planning: The Most Likely Condition(s) Expected to Prevail Over the
Planning Horizon if a Given Course of Action or Plan is Implemented.
– Specific to USACE Navigation Studies: The Most Likely Conditions Expected to Prevail and Uniquely Attributable to Implementation
Proposed Improvements.
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Basic Economic Criteria for Plan Formulation\Selection\Optimization
– Plan, Alternative or Increment Where Net Economic Benefits (Above Project Costs) are Maximized……
…Subject to Reasonable Assessment of Marginal or Incremental Economic Costs vs. Benefit(s) or Economic Return(s).
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Basic Steps of the Evaluation Process
– As Presented by the Principals and Guidelines (P&G)
– As Presented by the NED Procedures Deep-Draft Manual
(IWR Report 91-R-13; November 1991)
• Process is Not Characteristically Comprised of Rigid or “Discreet” Requirements in Terms of a Detailed Model, Structure, or Order of Process for Analysis………
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
Determine the Economic Study Area
Identify CommodityTypes, Volumes, & Flows
Project Waterborne Commerce
Determine Harbor Use With andWithout Project Implementation
Compute NED Benefits
Determine Vessel Fleet Composition and Costs
Determine Current Commodity Movement Cost(s)
Determine Alternative Movement Cost(s)
Determine Future Commodity Movement Cost(s)
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653
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WRC’s P&G 9-Step NED Evaluation Process Schematic
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
Determine the Economic Study Area
Identify CommodityTypes, Volumes, & Flows
Project Waterborne Commerce
Determine Harbor Use With andWithout Project Implementation
Compute NED Benefits
Determine Vessel Fleet Composition and Costs
Determine Current Commodity Movement Cost(s)
Determine Alternative Movement Cost(s)
Determine Future Commodity Movement Cost(s)
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NED Procedures Deep-Draft Navigation Manual 9 Step Evaluation Process
NED Multi-Port Analysis
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Detail of the Basic 9-Step Process
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Determine Economic Study Area– Origin to Destination
– Will Vary by Commodity
– Competing ports and modes are factors
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Identify Commodity Types, Volumes & Flows– Which commodities are likely to be
impacted by the proposed improvement.
– What are the expected tonnages
– What are the expected routes
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Project Waterborne Commerce– Projections supplemented with interviews
and historical data.
– By commodity
– 20 years is usually sufficient
– Sensitivity Analysis
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Vessel Fleet Service Composition Cost(s)
– Vessel Characteristics • Route, Commodity, Distance
• Draft, DWT, Immersion Factors
– Current and Future Fleets
– Vessel Operating Costs
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Determine Current Costs of Commodity or Cargo Transport
(With Regard to Origin/Destination as Appropriate)
– Ocean Transit Costs
– Handling/Transfer Costs
– Hinterland/Tributary (Landside or Inland Waterway) Transit Cost(s)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Determine Alternative Movements Cost(s) (Next Best Alternative(s); Applicable?)
– Lightering, Topping-Off, or Offshore Facilities
– Transhipment Facilities
– Pipelines
– Traffic/Port Facility Management
– Other Transport Modes
– Competitive Harbors
– Other?
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Determine Future Commodity Movement Cost(s)
Relative to Foreseeable & Probable Changes In:
– Fleet Service and/or Composition
– Port Logistics (Delays, Throughput Process, etc.)
– Port Throughput Capacity (Undertaken Relative to Time & Resources)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Determine Harbor or Waterway System Use Under “With” &\vs. “Without-Project” Conditions
– Compare costs for alternatives to determine use– Integrate Multi-Port Analysis (as Appropriate)
– Identify and Quantify Uncertainties
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Calculate or Quantify National Economic Development (NED) Benefits
(Cost Reduction Benefits - Examples)
– Same Cargo Flow, Origin/Destination, Harbor
– Same Cargo Flow, Origin/Destination, New or Alternative Harbor
– Same Cargo Flow, Origin/Destination, Alternative Mode.
– Induced Movement
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Notable Economic Evaluation Considerations– Fleet changes
– Service changes– Vessel Load Parameter(s) and Logistics– Commodity changes– Sensitivity– R&U
(continued)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• General Guideline for Level of Effort for Process or Analysis
– Undertaken Until It Is or Can be Determined Additional Significant Effort or Analysis Would Not Yield or Result In a Significant Variance in Finding Concerning Disposition for Both Justification and Plan Formulation…..
…………Subject to Time and Budgetary Constraints for Studies…….
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Historical Findings of the Army Audit Agency (AAA)– Economic benefits often or typically overstated (relative
to intent of applied guidance)
– General lack or absence of multi-port analysis
– Commodity\cargo projections not current or updated as might otherwise be appropriate
– Frequent inconsistencies in fleet service projections
– Vessel\Carrier size often overstated or overestimated
– Inconsistency(ies) in comparison of with vs. without-project conditions.
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Notes or Questions:
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Short Break
• 10 Minutes
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Abbreviated Exercise(s)
– Plan Formulation\Selection\Optimization
– Sample Calculation of Vessel Loading(s) & Immersion, & Derivation of Associated cargo
Unit Costs
– Bulk Carrier
– Containerized Cargo Carrier
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Open Period for Questions/Discussion
• END
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Supplemental Slides\Information
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Navigation Data & Related Sources - General– Required Sources are Multiple or Numerous……Currently There Does
Not Exist One Singular Source Applicable to the Needs of USACE Deep-Draft Navigation Studies
– Not Always Readily or Consistently Available in Desired Level of Detail or in Time Series for All Studies
– Sources Often Require Notable Lead and Labor Time to Acquire & Compile, Reconcile, and Refine
– Applicable Sources Include Governmental & Private-Sector Entities
– Some Critical Sources are Commercially-Based and Require Purchase for Acquisition
– Nature of Data Requires Update or Currency for Reasonable Analysis (reference supplemental slides for a listing of typical sources)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Supplemental Slides\Information for Reference\Individual Review
– General Schematics for Considerations of Risk & Uncertainty (R&U) Analysis
– General Schematics for Waterway Terminology\Nomenclature
– Information Concerning Research Efforts for Improvements to Waterborne Navigation Analysis &
Planning
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• General Schematics for Waterborne Navigation Risk & Uncertainty
– “Flow” Diagram– “Hierarchal-Order” Diagram
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
Waterway System (or Feature) Dimension/Specification Uncertainty >Depth, Width, and Alignment >Length or Duration >Lead/Lag Time
EnvironmentalRisk(s)
Waterway System (or Feature) Maintenance Uncertainty > Dredging\Excavation - Volume, Scheduling, & Cost(s)
> Material Disposal
Shoaling/Sedimentation Uncertainty > Sediment Flow/Transport - Degree, Nature, and Location of Material Deposition
> Other
Fleet Forecast UncertaintyCommodity Forecast Uncertainty
Vessel Operations Uncertainty
National Economic Development (NED) Cost(s) Uncertainty
National Economic Development(NED) Benefit(s) Uncertainty
Vessel Safety> Vessel Clearance(s) - Underkeel/Passing
Clearance(s)
> Maneuverability
Vessel Traffic Uncertainty >Cargo/Commodities >Service Schedule(s) >Vessel Specifications
Deep-Draft Navigation Risk(s) & Uncertainty (R&U) (“Flow” Diagram)
Total Navigation Study/Project Uncertainty
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
Navigation Project Uncertainty
NED Cost(s) Uncertainty
NED Benefit(s) Uncertainty
Voyage Cost Estimates
Construction Cost(s)
Vessel Operating Practice(s)
Traffic Projections
Maintenance Cost(s)
Disposal Cost(s)
Construction Quantities
Maintenance Quantities
Design Vessel Design Conditions
Design Dimensions
Advance Maintenance Quantities
Design Quantities
Dredging Allowance
Dredging Allowance
Existing Dimensions
Operating Cost Estimates
Commodity Projections
Fleet Projections
Dredging Cost(s)
Disposal Cost(s) Dredging Cost(s)
Advance Maintenance Quantities
Existing Dimensions
Deep-Draft Navigation Risk(s) & Uncertainty (R&U) (“Hierarchal-Order” Diagram)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• General Schematics for Waterway Terminology or Nomenclature
– Conceptual Coastal Waterway\Entrance Layout• (Overhead\Horizontal Plane Perspective)
– Waterway\Channel Cross Section(s)• (Vertical Plane Perspective; Typical Interior\Protected vs.
Entrance\Ocean Approach Channel Segments)
– Vessel Underkeel Clearances and Waterway Specifications
• (Cross Section;Vertical Plane Perspective)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
Ocean Approach Contour
Turning\Maneuvering Basin
Transit Channel Segment
Quay or Berthing Area(s)
Ocean Approach Reference Depth: 48.0 Feet MLLW
Interior\Protected Reach Reference Depth: 45.0 Feet MLLW
Transit Channel Wideners
Turn\Transition
Protective Jetty(ies)
Conceptual Waterway\Entrance Layout
Interior\Protected Reach
Ocean Approach\Entrance
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
General Channel Cross Section SchematicProtected Water Reaches\Interior Channels *
(Basic Increments for Depth Excavation)
Margin for Dredging Tolerance ( Allowable )
Margin for Advance(d) Maintenance ( Required )
Waterway Reference Depth ( as Authorized & Maintained; Includes Allowances for Squat and Freshwater\Load Zone Sinkage; Required )
Mean Tide Variation Above Reference Datum( MLW to MHW or MLLW to MHHW )
Reference (Bottom) Width
0.0 ft.
-45.0 ft.
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (1+)
-45.0 ft. – (1+?)
* Vertical Plane Perspective of Waterway Cross Section
-45.0 ft. – (1+)
-45.0 ft. – (1+?)
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft.
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
General Channel Cross Section SchematicOcean Approaches\Entrance Channels *(Basic Increments for Depth Excavation)
Margin for Dredging Tolerance ( Allowable )
Margin for Advance(d) Maintenance ( Required )
Waterway Reference Depth ( as Authorized & Maintained; Required )
Mean Tide Variation Above Reference Datum( MLW to MHW or MLLW to MHHW )
Reference (Bottom) Width-45.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (1+?)
* Vertical Plane Perspective of Waterway Cross Section
Margin for Coastal\Open Water Climatic Conditions ( Required )
0.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (2+)
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (1+)-45.0 ft. – (1+)
-45.0 ft. – (1+?)
-45.0 ft. – (2+)
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft.
Marginal Width for Coastal\Open Water Climatic Conditions
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
Vessel Underkeel Clearance(s) and General Waterway Depth Specifications
Mean Bed Level
Vessel Vertical Motion Due to ClimaticConditions (Significant Wind & Waves, etc.)
Vessel Squat (Dynamic\Underway)
Net Safety Clearance
Dredging Tolerance ( Dredge Allowable )
Reference Datum (i.e., MLW or MLLW)
Advance(d) Maintenance ( Dredge Required )
Effect of Freshwater (Sinkage)
Mean Tide Variation (MTV)
Gross Underkeel Clearance(Static condition)
Mean High Reference Level Above Reference Datum (I.e., MHW or MHHW)
Vessel Loaded\Laden Draft (i.e., Transit Draft; Static Condition)
Vessel Hull
Waterway Reference Depth( as Authorized & Maintained;
Dredging Depth Margin Required )
Waterway Design Depth(s) (or Increments)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Supplemental Slides\Information for Reference\Individual Review
– Information Concerning Research Efforts for Improvements to Waterborne Navigation Analysis & Planning
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Activities for Integration of Engineering and Economic Analysis
•
[Undertaken with the Support of the U.S. Naval Academy USNA)]
• Design Procedure Literature Review
• Comparison of Study Procedures (& field surveys)
• Channel Design & Maintenance Assessment
• Safety Performance Review
• Shipping Trends Analysis
• Summary Report of Findings & Recommendations
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Ongoing Investigations\Evolving Methods or Guidance
– Efforts to Enhance the Integration of Engineering & Economic Analysis for Planning of
Waterway Design.
– Efforts to Develop Practical/Applied MethodsAnalysis of Risk & Uncertainty (R&U) in
Planning of Deep-Draft Navigation Projects.
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Efforts to Develop Practical/Applied Framework for Analysis of Risk & Uncertainty (R&U) of Deep-Draft Navigation Projects
– Literature Review and Survey of Methods
– Delineation of Parameters Considered Most Significant
– Development of Risk-Based Computerized Models for Standardized Practice
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Navigation Data & Related Sources:
Cargo/Commodity Data
– Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center (WCSC)
– Port(s) Authorities
– Port Maritime Exchanges
– Industry• Journal of Commerce (Port Import/Export Reporting
System or PIERS) (continued)
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• Navigation Data & Related Sources
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Navigation Data & Related Sources
– Traffic\Commerce Data
• Cargo/Commodity Movements– Type and Volume of Movement(s)
– Origin(s) and Destination(s)
– Handling Requirements
– Other
(continued)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Navigation Data & Related Sources– Traffic\Commerce Data (continued)
• Vessel/Fleet– Service Frequency by Type and Class of Carrier– Type and Tonnage of Cargo Handled– Physical Characteristics and Operating Cost(s)– Other
» Port/Landside Facility Operations» Independent and Industry Forecasts» Other
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Navigation Data & Related Sources: (continued)
– Vessel/Fleet Data– Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center
(WCSC)– Lloyd’s Register of Ships (LR)– Lloyd’s Voyage Records– Clarkson Ship Register/Research Studies– Janes Maritime References (continued)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
• Navigation Data & Related Sources: (continued)
– Fairplay Ship Register– Journal of Commerce (JOC) - Port
Import/Export Reporting Service (PIERS)– Pilot’s Log(s)– Shipping/Steamship Agents– Vessel Operators/Owners– Other
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
Ocean Approach Contour
Turning\Maneuvering Basin
Transit Channel Segment
Quay or Berthing Area(s)
Ocean Approach Reference Depth: 48.0 Feet MLLW
Interior\Protected Reach Reference Depth: 45.0 Feet MLLW
Transit Channel Wideners
Turn\Transition
Protective Jetty(ies)
Conceptual Waterway Layout
Interior\Protected Reach
Ocean Approach\Entrance
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
General Channel Cross Section SchematicProtected Water Reaches\Interior Channels *
(Basic Increments for Depth Excavation)
Margin for Dredging Tolerance ( Allowable )
Margin for Advance(d) Maintenance ( Required )
Waterway Reference Depth ( as Authorized & Maintained; Includes Allowances for Squat and Freshwater\Load Zone Sinkage; Required )
Mean Tide Variation Above Reference Datum( MLW to MHW or MLLW to MHHW )
Reference (Bottom) Width
0.0 ft.
-45.0 ft.
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (1+)
-45.0 ft. – (1+?)
* Vertical Plane Perspective of Waterway Cross Section
-45.0 ft. - (1+)
-45.0 ft. - (1+?)
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft.
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
General Channel Cross Section SchematicOcean Approaches\Entrance Channels *(Basic Increments for Depth Excavation)
Margin for Dredging Tolerance ( Allowable )
Margin for Advance(d) Maintenance ( Required )
Waterway Reference Depth ( as Authorized & Maintained; Required )
Mean Tide Variation Above Reference Datum( MLW to MHW or MLLW to MHHW )
Reference (Bottom) Width
-45.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (1+?)
* Vertical Plane Perspective of Waterway Cross Section
Margin for Coastal\Open Water Climatic Conditions ( Required )
0.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (2+)
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (1+)-45.0 ft. – (1+)
-45.0 ft. – (1+?)
-45.0 ft. – (2+)
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft.
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US Army Corpsof Engineers R
Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
General Channel Cross Section SchematicOcean Approaches\Entrance Channels *(Basic Increments for Depth Excavation)
Margin for Dredging Tolerance ( Allowable )
Margin for Advance(d) Maintenance ( Required )
Waterway Reference Depth ( as Authorized & Maintained; Required )
Mean Tide Variation Above Reference Datum( MLW to MHW or MLLW to MHHW )
Reference (Bottom) Width
0.0 ft.
-45.0 ft.
+5.0 ft.
-45.0 ft. – (2+)
-45.0 ft. – (1+?)
* Vertical Plane Perspective
Margin for Coastal\Open Water Climatic Conditions ( Required )
-45.0 ft. – (1+)
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Deep-Draft Waterborne Navigation - An Overview
Vessel Underkeel Clearance(s) and General Waterway Depth Specifications
Mean Bed Level
Vessel Vertical Motion Due to ClimaticConditions (Significant Wind & Waves, etc.)
Vessel Squat (Dynamic\Underway)
Net Safety Clearance
Dredging Tolerance ( Dredge Allowable )
Reference Datum (i.e., MLW or MLLW)
Advance(d) Maintenance ( Dredge Required )
Effect of Freshwater (Sinkage)
Mean Tide Variation (MTV)
Gross Underkeel Clearance (Static)
Mean High Reference Level Above Reference Datum (I.e., MHW or MHHW)
Vessel Loaded\Laden Draft (i.e., Transit Draft; Static Condition)
Vessel Hull
Waterway Reference Depth( as Authorized & Maintained;
Dredging Depth Margin Required )
Waterway Design Depth(s) (or Increments)