1 ee evaluation report on 2009 bridge funding period california public utilities commission november...
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1
EE Evaluation Report on 2009 Bridge Funding Period
California Public Utilities Commission
November 22, 2010Energy Division
Energy Efficiency Evaluation
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Meeting Agenda
• 1:00 PM -1:10 PM Introductions (Tagnipes).• 1:10 PM - 1:15 PM Background (Franzese)• 1:15 PM – 2:15 PM Updates Made (Various)• 2:15 PM – 2:20 PM Results (Franzese/Best)• 2:20 PM - 2:50 PM Q & A• 2:50 PM - 3:00 PM Comment process (Franzese)• 3:00 PM – Adjourn
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Background
Commission Directives for the 2009 Bridge Funding Period• D. 08-10-027
– 1-Year bridge funding period in 2009 for certain programs carried over from 2006-2008
– Use 2005 DEER values to determine a baseline and 2008 DEER updates for reporting and evaluating performance in 2009
• D. 10-04-029– Use results from 2006-2008 impact evaluation reports as primary
inputs for calculating energy savings for 2009 bridge funding programs– Programs and measures continued from 2006-2008 were considered
for updates– Programs and measures new for 2009 were passed through– Updates were for those eight specific parameters identified in the
Performance Basis Protocol issued on January 11, 2006 ALJ Ruling
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Residential• Logic used to update Residential records
Primary Condition Secondary Condition
Use 06-08 EM&V NTG
Use 06-08 EM&V Irate
Use 06-08 EM&V UES RR
Use 06-08 EM&V EUL
No changes to the program / HIMs N/A Y Y Y Y
Measure/s dropped from program N/A N N N N
Measure/s added to program Changed overall weighted savings Y Y N Y
No change to overall weighted savings
Y Y Y Y
Measure name changed, syntax only N/A Y Y Y Y
Measure name changed, disaggregate detail
Changed overall weighted savings Y Y N Y
No change to overall weighted savings
Y Y Y Y
Significant changes to rebates/incentives
N/A N Y Y Y
Significant changes to UES N/A Y Y Y Y
New climate zones added N/A Y Y Y Y
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Small Commercial• Prioritization
– The parameters for measures included in the 2006-2008 study (virtually the same measure going by a different name) or were updated using the results from the 2006-2008 HIM Impact Evaluations.
– DEER values were applied to EULs.– Pass thru values were applied where no better parameter update could be
made.
• Major differences between 2006-2008 ERT and 2009 ERT– High Bay occupancy sensors in SDGE’s programs were a major percentage of
the program savings.– High Bay occupancy sensors were passed thru because they were not
studied in the 2006-2008 program evaluation.
• Lighting updates (by measure name, program and building type)– Delta watts (by measure name) X Hours of Operation (by program and building
type) = Savings– New combinations of the measure name, program, and building type existed in
2009. The UES for the new combinations were calculated using the 2006-2008 results.
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Major Commercial SBW Major Commercial Study (SBW_MC)
8270 records across SCE2517, SCG3513, SDGE3010 and SDGE3025 updated with UES, NTGR and IRate results
ADM Commercial Facilities HIM Study (ADM_ComFac) In SCE2517, 3618 refrigeration records
updated with UES and IRate results and 4688 records updated with NTGR
Itron Small Commercial HIM Study (Itron_SmCom)2372 lighting records in program SCE2517
updated with UES, NTGR and IRate results Database for Energy Efficiency Resources (DEER)
541 records in SCE2517 updated with NTGR and 8463 records in SCE2517 and SCG3513 updated with EUL..
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Major Commercial• Percent kWh and therms affected by updates
Program/Element Source UES NTGR EUL Irate UES NTGR EUL Irate
SCE2517 Express ADM_ComFac 3 6 0 3 0 0 0 0Itron_SmCom 22 22 0 22 0 0 0 0SBW_MC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0DEER 0 5 35 0 0 0 0 0PassThru 18 10 65 18 0 0 0 0
SCE2517 NonRes Audits SBW_MC 14 14 0 14 0 0 0 0SCE2517 SPC SBW_MC 43 43 0 43 0 0 0 0
SCE2560 PassThru 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0
SCG3513 SBW_MC 0 0 0 0 73 73 0 73DEER 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0PassThru 0 0 0 0 27 27 75 27
SCG3546 PassThru 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
SDGE3010 SBW_MC 100 100 0 100 100 100 0 100PassThru 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0
SDGE3025 SBW_MC 100 100 0 100 100 100 0 100Pass Thru 0 0 100 0 0 0 100 0
SDGE3054 PassThru 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
% kWh % Therms
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Commercial Retro-commissioning• SBW Retro-Commissioning Study (SBW_RCx)
– 120 records among 8 PGE programs and 198 records among 2 SCE programs updated with UES and NTGR results
• KEMA Non-Res New Construction Study (KEMA_NRNC)– 11 measures in PGE2006 NRNC updated with UES
and NTGR results; 8 of those measures part of “Whole building – new construction” HIM
• Database for Energy Efficiency Resources (DEER)– 309 PGE records and 1 SCE record updated with
EUL values from DEER
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Commercial Retro-commissioning• Percent kWh and therms affected by updates
Program/Element Source UES NTGR EUL UES NTGR EUL
PGE2006 NRNC KEMA_NRNC 34 34 0 62 62 0
PassThru 0 0 34 0 0 62
PGE2006 Other SBW_RCx 19 19 0 21 21 0
PassThru 47 47 66 17 17 38
PGE2015 SBW_RCx 11 11 0 51 51 0
DEER 0 0 4 0 0 -5
PassThru 89 89 96 49 49 105
PGE2025 DEER 0 0 18 0 0 79
PassThru 100 100 82 100 100 21
PGE2052 SBW_RCx 20 20 0 41 41 0
DEER 0 0 5 0 0 59
PassThru 80 80 95 59 59 41
PGE2070 SBW_RCx 100 100 0 100 100 0
PassThru 0 0 100 0 0 100
PGE2072 SBW_RCx 100 100 0 100 100 0
PassThru 0 0 100 0 0 100
PGE2090 SBW_RCx 100 100 0 100 100 0
PassThru 0 0 100 0 0 100
PGE2091 SBW_RCx 100 100 0 100 100 0
PassThru 0 0 100 0 0 100
PGE2094 SBW_RCx 94 94 0 0 0 0
PassThru 6 6 100 100 100 100
SCE2508 SBW_RCx 100 100 0 100 100 0
PassThru 0 0 100 0 0 100
SCE2528 DEER 0 0 9 0 0 0PassThru 100 100 91 100 100 100
%kWh %Therms
In all cases IRate was set to one. For measures receiving updates for UES and NTGR, all energy savings were accounted for in the UES values.
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Specialized Commercial• Updates were applied only to the same HIM measures
contained within the same program (EDPrgID) as 2006-08.
• Measure names were different in 2009 than 2006-08, but the measures were still associated with the proper EDMeasureGroup
• 2006-08 Irate and NTG Parameters applied by Program• Within Programs the Climate Zone specific UES values
were applied • No new data was collected and no new values were
calculated
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New Construction/Codes and Standards• Non-Residential New Construction
– Only the UES (unit energy savings) and NTGR (net-to-gross ratio) parameters were updated using 2006-08 evaluation results
• Residential New Construction– Only the UES (unit energy savings) and NTGR (net-to-
gross ratio) parameters for Whole House measures in the NCCS Residential New Construction (RNC) were updated
– SDGE3007 did not rebate any Whole House measures, so all ex-ante parameters were passed thru
– Due to complications with the different databases and the small magnitude of savings it was determined that all values for PG&E 2009 would be passed through.
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PGE Fabrication, Process and Manufacturing
• Tracking records were divided into three categories: pump-off controllers (POC), non-POC electric measures, and gas measures. Realization rates and net-to-gross ratios were derived for each category, by stratum.
• Updated 2009 records for all programs using the RR and NTGR estimated in the 2006-2008 program cycle. The same measure categories and strata boundaries as in 2006-2008 were used for this purpose.
• Exceptions 19 New Construction records, updated by the NCCS Contract Group; and 3 RCX records, updated by the RCX Contract Group. Both the NCCS and RCX Groups used 2006-2008 evaluation results to update their respective records.
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Southern California Industrial and Agricultural
• SCE2509– In 2006-2008, SCE adjusted claims using a realization rate of .89– In 2009, SCE did not use the .89 adjustment– In order for the 2006-2008 realization rates to be applicable to the 2009
program year the following adjustments were made:
• The 2009 records were updated using the adjusted RR and the NTGR estimated in the 2006-2008 program cycle. The same strata boundaries as in 2006-2008 were used for this purpose
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Southern California Industrial and Agricultural
• SCE2510– Agricultural: The gross impacts for the 2009 records
were passed through, as in the 2006-2008 evaluation. The 2009 tracking records were updated using the 2006-2008 NTGR estimates
– For Pump Testing, SCE used a completely different set of impacts in 2009 as compared to 2006-2008, as reflected in the 2009 Workpapers• Since the 2009 impacts were different, the 2006-2008
results could not be used to update 2009 records for this program
• The 2009 ex-ante impacts were passed through
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PGE Agricultural• PGE2001 project records were adjusted; other 3rd party
program records were passed through.• Installation rates – assumed to be 100% as install rates were
picked up in realization rates for the 06-08 evaluation.• Unit Energy Savings (UES)
– Included savings: realization rates from the 06-08 evaluation were applied to gross savings from the tracking system.
– Omitted savings (savings from a fuel that weren’t accounted for in tracking): per-unit savings from the 06-08 evaluation were applied to each record from the tracking system.
• Interactive Effects - consistent with the 06-08 evaluation, no interactive effects were calculated
• Net-to-gross ratios (NTGRs) – results from the 06-08 evaluation were utilized; NTGRs varied by kW, kWh, and therms.
• Effective Useful Lives (EULs) – tracking system results were passed through.– ..
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Standardized Program Tracking Database
• There were 170 programs in 2006-2008, 153 in 2009• There were 38 programs in 2006-2008 that were not in 2009• There were 21 programs in 2009 that were not in 2006-2008• SPT db stats from 2006-2008 compared to 2009:
2006 – 2008 2009
SPTdb 4,328,763 1,695,907
SPT 3,755,204 1,642,198
E3_Claim 20,686 13,657
Number of records
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ERT Application• Changes from 2006-2008 ERT to the 2009 ERT
– New E3 Engine used (all used 4g2, except for SDGE used 4g3)• Years change:
– Years 2006-2008 removed from Input tab. – Year 2009 is now where 2006 used to be.– New years 2017-19 added
• New avoided cost tables• New load shapes consistent with DEER• Upstream Payments field added to the Export tab.
– Replaced IOU claims table with 2009 claims table– Revised VBA code and queries:
• Reference new 2009 IOU_E3 tables instead of 2008 tables.• Modified code to adjust quantities into Q42009 (year 2009 for SCE) where the
paid date is after 12/31/2009.• Added Upstream Payments field to the comparison queries and
Results_Savings_Claim table to capture Upstream Payments output from the E3s.
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Results• Evaluated Energy Savings
2006 – 2008 Net
2009 Net 2009 Gross
First Year MW 779 278 423
GWh 4,097 1,538 2,401MMTherms 44 22 45
Lifecycle GWh 42,736 16,000 24,486MMTherms 690 296 646
Market Distribution of Savings - 2009
Electricity Natural Gas
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Commercial53%
Residential34%
Industrial9%
Agricultural4% Agricultural
6%
Commercial71%
Industrial23%
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Results• Cost Effectiveness
PGE SCE SDGE SCG Statewide
TRC 1.21 1.21 1.90 1.07 1.28PAC 1.63 2.15 2.61 1.55 1.92
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GWH
2006-2009 Program Cycle Comparison
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
PG&E SCE SDGE SoCalGas
Goal Evaluated
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MMTherm
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PG&E SCE SDGE SoCalGas
2006-2009 Program Cycle Comparison
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-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
All IOU 2010-2012 Projected Savings Nov Compliance (no decay) ED 2009 Projected Savings (2008 Evaluated and 50% decay)
ED 2006-2008 Verified Net Savings (includes 50% decay) Reported and Projected LIEE Savings, Pre-2006 C&S cumulative (no decay)
kWh - Goal (09-09-047) cumulative (08-07-047 TMG goals at 2013) kWh - Goal (D.09-09-047) ( annual) (08-07-047 TMG goals at 2013)
Net Gross Total Market Gross
Progress Against Goals Electricity
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-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MM
Th
erm
s
LIEE Savings, Pre-2006 C&S cumulative (no decay) All Evaluated Net Savings 06-08 with 50% decay
ED Projected Gross Savings 2009 with 50% decay 2010-2012 Projected Gross Savings
therm - Goal (D. 09-09-047) Cumulative; (08-07-047 post 2013 goals) therm - Goal (D. 09-09-047) Annual (08-07-047 post 2013 goals)
Net Gross Total Market Gross
Progress Against Goals Natural Gas
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Q & A
30 minutes
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Timeline for Comments
- Report posted Friday, November 12, 2010- Webinar Monday, November 22, 2010- Comments Due Friday, December 10, 2010
- Post comments to www.energydataweb.com/cpuc
- Go to Topic “2009 Energy Efficiency Bridge Funding Evaluation Report”
- Click on “View/Add”- Click on “Add a comment or question”
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Thank You
Questions
415-703-2451
415-703-1926
415-703-1797