1 eia’s electricity forecasting for the u.s. and the south by: marilyn brown, matt cox, alex...
TRANSCRIPT
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EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for
the U.S. and the South
By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, Alex Smith, and Xiaojing Sun
Georgia Institute of Technology
July 11, 2014
This analysis was conduced for Georgia Tech’s “Future of Electric Power in the South” (FEPS) initiative.
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Progress Since our May 6th FEPS Workshop
• FEPS website created: http://cepl.gatech.edu/drupal/node/75
• Workshop notes were distributed and posted
• A 55-page white paper on “The State of Electric Power in the South” was drafted, reviewed, revised, and posted
• Georgia Tech’s National Energy Modeling System (GT-NEMS 2014) became fully operational in July
• Examined options for modeling “disruptions”
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Energy Consumption in the South Will Grow more Rapidly than the US Average
History Projections
2012
Projection for the South
Total Energy Consumption in the South, 2005-2040 (quadrillion Btu)
The average annual growth rate of total energy consumption from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.4% for the US, and 0.54% for the South
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The South Continues to Lag the Nation in its Reliance on Renewable Electricity
History Projections
2012
Electricity generation by fuel in the South, 2005-2040 (trillion kilowatthours)
Natural Gas
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Petroleum liquids and other
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Residential Electricity Demand Will Grow more Rapidly than the US Average
History Projections
2012
Projection for the South
Residential Electricity Consumption in the South, 2005-2040 (billion kWh)
The average annual growth rate of residential electricity consumption from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.67% for the US, 0.99% for the South
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BAU Tech Progress Expected to Have Little Impact on Southern Electricity Load Drivers
• Of US demand for space cooling services, the South is projected to consume 63%.
• Space cooling loads are expected to increase over time, requiring more peak generation.
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Technology Advancement has Potential to Accelerate Commercial Sector Efficiency
• South continues to lag US in adoption of more stringent commercial building codes
• Forthcoming cost advantages in categories such as lighting may help reduce commercial sector demand (e.g., SSL)
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Despite Rising Energy Consumption, Electricity Prices in the South Remain Low
History Projections
2012
Projection for the South
Average Electricity Prices in the South, 2005-2040 (2012 cents per kilowatthour)
The average annual growth rate of retail electricity prices from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.51% for the US, 0.47% for the South
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Boilers and CHP Meet Proportionally More Thermal Demand in the South
-1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15
2040
2025
2012
Southern heat and power consumption for refin-ing and manufacturing applications in reference
case; 2012, 2025, and 2040 (quadrillion Btu)
Manufacturing - Other Processes
Manufacturing - Boilers and CHP
Liquids Refining
Industrial CHP is More Important in the South, but Not Commercial CHP
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2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US-All Distributed South-All Distributed
US-Industrial South-Industrial
US-Commercial South-Commercial
Dis
trib
ute
d C
HP
GW
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
US-All Distributed South-All Distributed
US-Industrial South-Industrial
US-Commercial South-Commercial
Dis
trib
ute
d C
HP
BkW
h
CHP System Prices Decline Over Time11
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1 MW2 MW3.5 MW5.7 MW15 MW25 MW40 MW100 MW
$/k
W
1 MW 2 MW 3.5 MW 5.7 MW 15 MW 25 MW 40 MW 100 MW
% Change, 2010-2035 -60% -69% -13% -11% -12% -13% -5% -5%
Average Annual %
Change -2.4% -2.7% -0.5% -0.4% -0.5% -0.5% -0.2% -0.2%
Prices are flat after 2035
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The South Relies More on Biomass and Less on Other Renewable Resources Than the U.S.
MSW/LFG
Biomass
Wind
Solar
Total generation from wind, solar and other renewables in the South (Billion kWh)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Conventional hy-dropower
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Biomass and Wind Will Replace Hydro as the Largest Renewable Electricity Sources
Renewable electricity generation in 2012, 2020, 2030 and 2040
Hydropower
Wind
Solar
Biomass and waste
2012 2020 2030 20400
50
100
150
200
250
Solar Will Increase Significantly Post 2030
Distributed Solar PV in the Commercial Sector Will Experience Declining Cost and Better Efficiency
Year Average Efficiency Equipment Cost ($/W)
Reference
2010 0.15 6.4
2015 0.175 3.8
2020 0.192 2.8
2025 0.197 2.6
2030 0.2 2.5
2035 0.2 2.4
2040 0.2 2.4
SunShot Initiative Goal:1.25$/W in 2020
EIA learning beta 0.2 (13%)Literature Review 22% Initial cost in 1990 ($/W) 29.7
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Distributed Solar PV in Residential Sector Will Face Slightly Higher Costs Than in the Commercial Sector
Year Average Efficiency Equipment Cost ($/W)
Reference
2010 0.15 7.1
2015 0.175 4.2
2020 0.192 3.3
2025 0.197 3.0
2030 0.2 3.0
2035 0.2 2.9
2040 0.2 2.9
EIA learning beta 0.2 (13%)Literature Review 22% Initial cost in 1990 ($/W) 30.9
SunShot Initiative Goal:1.5 $/W in 2020
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Power Sector Solar PV Cost Will Decline, Following a Three-Stage Learning Curve
Technology Learning
Number of doubling Learning Rate
1 0.2
5 0.1
500 0.01
Overnight Capital Cost in 2013 ($1987/W)
2.1
Overnight Capital Cost in 2013 ($2009/W) 3.9
SunShot Initiative Goal: 1 $/W in 2020In 2013, Utility scale PV cost was ~2 $/W
Source: DOE SunShot Initiative http://www.energy.gov/articles/us-utility-scale-solar-60-percent-towards-cost-competition-goal
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The SERC Region Will Significantly Increase Electricity Generation from Utility Scale Solar PV
Utility Scale Solar PV Generation Distributed Solar PV Generation
The South would account for 12% of the utility PV generation in 2020, 34% in 2040.
The South would account for 20% of the nation’s distributed PV generation in 2020, 29% in 2040.
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
U.S. ERCTFRCC SERCSPP
Ele
ctr
icit
y G
enera
tion f
rom
Uti
lity
-ow
ned
PV
(
Bil
lion k
Wh)
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
U.S. ERCT FRCC SERC SPP
Ele
ctr
icit
y G
enera
tion f
rom
Dis
trib
ute
d P
V
(Bil
lion k
Wh)
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Next Steps for FEPS
• Examine EIA’s “side cases”: Extended policies High demand technologies Low electricity demand High nuclear $25/t-CO2 tax
• Begin designing our own scenarios
• Second webinar in August
For More Information19
Professor Marilyn A. BrownSchool of Public PolicyGeorgia Institute of TechnologyAtlanta, GA [email protected] and Energy Policy Lab: http://www.cepl.gatech.edu
Research Assistants:Alexander Smith (Overview)[email protected] Matt Cox (CHP)[email protected] Xiaojing Sun (Solar PV)[email protected]