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Evidence on and lessons from short-term socio-

economic impacts of HPAIAnni McLeod FAO

ECTAD Socio-economics and production team: Lise Albrechtsen, Jacques Conforti, John Curry, Nicoline de Haan, Frands Dolberg, Ellen Geerlings, Fallou Gueye, Emmanuelle

Guerne-Bleich, Jim Hancock, Jan Hinrichs, Marina Maiero, Sabrina Mayoufi, Anni McLeod, Uswege Minga, Emanuele

Moncada, Nancy Morgan, Ana Riviere-Cinnamond, Jonathan Rushton.

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• Market shock

• Disease intelligence

• Culling and compensation

• Recovery

• Vaccination

• Needing more attention

Topics covered

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Market shocks

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What do we know?

Internationally 2004-5, 8% decline in global poultry trade. World prices rose and then fell. FMD in Brazil plus HPAI in Asia pushed up all meat prices.

Shift in export of major players(FAO projections March 2006)

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2

4

6

8

10

2003 2004 2005 2006r

Millio

n t

on

nes

Europe

Asia

South America

North America

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Time

Price

National market shock

Tangerang District, Indonesia.

3 market shocks since January 2007.

Sector 3 farmers in debt, unable to recover

Hanoi and Ha Tay, Viet Nam (CIRAD).

Consumers consider AI a food-related risk

Immediate drop in demand >70%. 6.5% of consumers no longer consume poultry

Egypt

Market shock started before the outbreak in the country

Red River and Mekong Delta, Viet Nam.

Sector 3, small traders lost market share

Sector 2 was better able to adapt

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What has been successful, what has not?

• International poultry market is recovering fast largely through private sector actions

• There has been no way to prevent market shocks

• Well designed communication efforts (e.g. Thailand and Turkey) seem to reduce impact

Recommendations

• Analyse successful communication and build on it

• Work on safety nets for sector 3

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Disease intelligence

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What do we know?

Finding disease fast and responding fast is the best way to minimise economic damage

but...there are many reasons not to report disease

“If you see birds going to market at lower weight than normal the farmer probably thinks the flock is sick”

Indonesia PDS/PDRA way to find the extent of

diseaseNot expected to be permanent

Thai x-ray surveyHelped to reduce culling

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What has been successful, what has not?

• It’s possible to find and report disease with intense/participatory activity at field level

• There are several models available, none has been fully evaluated

• Many animal health information systems are not “joined up”

Recommendations

• Evaluate existing systems, estimate recurrent costs

• Think “out of the box” about reporting

• Predict where disease will be

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Culling and compensation

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What do we know?

A well designed compensation scheme reduces livelihoods damage from stamping out but does not remove it.

compensation doesn’t cover market shocks

“Women own birds, men get compensation”

Culling causes distress to owners and compensation teams

$$$ 2-20 per bird to cull and compensate

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What has been successful, what has not?

• Advance planning is essential

• Payment customised by system is needed

Recommendations

• Establish a strong compensation plan

• Find ways to share cost and risk

• Focus on reducing culling

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Recovery

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Recommendations

• Consider the recovery phase when making an outbreak contingency plan

• how and when will people restock?

• will they be able to make a living from poultry?

• is the restocking phase an opportunity to make production and marketing safer?

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Vaccination

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What do we know?

Ring vaccination can reduce culling costs

Preventive vaccination as insurance – cost can be shared

Cost effectiveness

cost per needle in bird? 7-16c

cost per bird protected?

cost per bird at risk?

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What has been successful, what has not?

• Reduction of outbreaks in Viet Nam, ?China

• Private sector already pays for vaccination

• Need vigilance over changes in strains

• Little incentive to vaccinate broilers

• Little interest for sector 4 owners to vaccinate

Recommendations

• Improve availability and user-friendliness of vaccine

• Improve monitoring systems otherwise cost effectiveness goes down

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Needing more attention

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Gender

“Informal” trade

Recovery

Evaluating disease control packages

Early warning signs

Planning with the private sector

“Hidden” people: widows, disabled, refugees, migrants

Sub-Saharan Africa

Genetic resources