1 excellence in market intelligence 1 market sizing north america intelligent & integrated...
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1Excellence in Market Intelligence 1
Market Sizing North AmericaIntelligent & Integrated Technologies
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Market Sizing North AmericaIntelligent & Integrated Technologies
Overview for CABA IIBC at AHR2010
Jan. 25, 2010
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3Excellence in Market Intelligence 3
Market Sizing North AmericaIntelligent & Integrated Technologies
Level 1 sponsors
Level 2 sponsors
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4Excellence in Market Intelligence 4
Experienced Project Team
Andrew Giles, MAGeneral ManagerBSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI)
Jeremy Towler, BBA, HTEC, dipl. Oek. Senior ManagerIntelligent Building Technology
Sukant Rout, BEng(Telecom), MBASenior Market Research Consultant: Intelligent Building Controls / IT Cabling & Associated Technologies
Ianire Cobeaga, MBAMarket Research Consultant Intelligent Building Technology
Lone HansenSenior ManagerI.T. Cabling and Associated Technologies
Gambi Chiang, MSc, BEng, MCIM, Charter MarketerSenior Manager Special Projects
Allan McHale, CEng, MIMechE, MIst Energy, MBIM. Independent Consultant
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Study Objectives
Purpose Detailed assessment of current and future markets around intelligence in non-domestic
buildings in North America
Quantitative and qualitative market assessment, segmentation, competitor analysis, routes to market
Size markets for principle applications plus integrated and IT-converged solutions
Scope1. IT Convergence
2. Environmental Controls
3. Lighting Controls
4. Security Systems
5. Fire Detection Systems
Timetable June – Dec 2009
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Key Findings
Environmental (HVAC) Building Controls The market will compete in applying BAS to tackle climate change issues Companies need to obtain and disseminate both controls and IT knowledge
Lighting Controls Huge savings and market potential Consolidation to provide total lighting solutions and more integration LED lighting is a growing market but controls required for better efficiency
Security Systems CCTV / Video surveillance setting the pace, followed by access control Strong movement towards IP systems and integration of security systems
Fire Detection and Alarm Robust, growing market, driven (and constrained) by codes & regulations Demand for better evacuation solutions will drive integration of nascent mass
notification / voice evacuation market
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$20 Billion Systems* Market 2009
BMS$5,733
29%
CCTV/Video$5,475
28%
Fire Detection & Alarm$2,751
14%
Access Control$2,535
13%
Intruder Alarm$2,053
11%
Lighting Control$9065%
* Systems = Product + Value Add (Engineering, Commissioning, Installation) excluding maintenance
* Products = Hardware, Software, Cable and Cabinetsat first point of distribution prices
$8.5 Billion Market for Products* (incl. cable & cabinets) 2009
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End-user Sectors
Top vertical markets:
Education
Offices
Central / Local Government
Health
13%
12%
11%
9%
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IBC Markets will Rebound
-7%
10%
13%
9%
6% 6% 5% 4% 5%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Construction Output Growth Rate (%)
6.5%
1.5%
2.3%
4.2% 4.2%
3.1%
2.3% 2.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
Construction Output Growth Rate
Source: StatCan
US
$ B
n.
Source: Economist/ US Census Bureau
Depressed economy, lack of credit, increasing building vacancies
Fall in new construction, delayed refurbishment and retrofit
However, IBC* markets have outperformed
Economic stimulus will help boost demand – particularly public sector
IBC* markets expected to return to growth late 2010/early 2011
USA
Canada
* Intelligent Building Controls
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Definition Convergence
Convergence is to bring together autonomous systems onto a common communication
platform within the business enterprise and create a single unified solution
Network = Ethernet Cat 5/5e/6 and/or fibre
BMS structureIT network/backbone
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Definition integration
IT-Networks
Technical Infrastructures (HVAC/Lighting/Security/Fire etc.).
IT-C
onve
rgen
ce
Integration
IT-Networks
Technical Infrastructures (HVAC/Lighting/Security/Fire etc.).
IT-C
onve
rgen
ceIT
-Con
verg
ence
IntegrationIntegration
Integration is to add value by joining or linking different building services products
However nearly all integrated solutions are also converged at least at management level
- many also at control level
Service layer (IP provider)
Management level (Mostly IP)
Automation/control layer(IP/BACnet/LON/proprietary)
Automation/control layer(IP/BACnet/LON/proprietary)
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Total system market $20 billion
• 56% = stand-alone• 44% = integrated and/or
converged34% integrated
and converged
8% converged (IT) only
2% integrated
only
BMS IT
21% on a separate BMS infrastructure
13% on the IT network/backbone
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Stand-alone vs. integration/convergence by product area, US$ million, 2009
Stand alone is high for lighting, intrusion and fire (~90%) IT convergence only – 25% for CCTV, 6% access Integration and convergence high for BMS (54%) and access (45%)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
BMS Lighting(controls)
CCTV Accesscontrol
Intrusion Fire andsafety
Stand alone Integration Convergence (IT) Convergence (BMS)
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Forecast 2009 – 2013, % split by stand-alone vs. integrated and converged
- Converged BMS
- Convergence IT
Integrated only
Stand alone
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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Trends
Intelligent buildings not a new topic, but new attention to energy usage and building performance
Many corporations increasingly take centralised decisions and need more and better information
Government wants to reduce CO2 emissions and energy consumption
Technology advancements are key drivers e.g. IP, wireless, PoE
IT barriers (lack of bandwidth, security) solved!
Scope and expertise increasing, integration/convergence of products
A number of companies can now take on the role of Master SI (the outcome however still depending on the person in charge)
Data centres are becoming more intelligent
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Smart Grid - Definition
An intelligent electricity system that connects all supply grid (utilities) and demand elements (end-users) through an
intelligent communication system
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Barriers
Resistance from FM and from IT to converge (stick to own areas of expertise and competence)
Lack of training and skills
Construction process uses traditional route with main contractor and sub-contractors
Long-term outsourcing contracts
Historic objections relating to the IT infrastructure e.g. security, downtime, bandwidth
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2 Main Drivers of Convergence
Energy and building performance
Energy savings and efficiency
Improve building performance (better decisions)
Reduce maintenance costs
Increase the value of the building/rental revenues
Security
Higher level of security (physical and IT security converged)
Efficient data sharing
Remote access
Improving storage
Access cards a requirement
Link data sharing between departments
1 2
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Who is driving convergence?
BMS
IT
Security
Large projects 90%-100% converged at management level (Ethernet)
IT convergence not perceived a benefit by many BMS suppliers
IT suppliers keen to drive IT convergence- Cisco: Mediator and hardware- IBM: software, consultancy and Master SI- Oracle, HP, Plexus etc. offer software/advice
- Integrated in BMS offering
- Driven by IT (hardw, cabling suppliers/channel)
- Security SI/installers high end drive it
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Who is driving convergence?
Energy rating schemes
Political/
economic factors
End-users
Most converged buildings are in US
LEED silver/gold/platinum
- International pressure to reduce CO2-Government funded projects-Buildings consume 70% of electricity and 40% of primary energy
- Pressure from society and clients to have a green profile
- Reduce energy costs
- Improve building performance and management
A driver for convergence, but not necessarily IT convergence
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The Main Systems Integrators
IBC(e) IBC(l) IBC(s) IBC(f)
Honeywell Honeywell Diebold Honeywell
Johnson Controls Johnson Controls Convergint Siemens
Schneider Electric Schneider Electric Honeywell Tyco
Siemens Siemens Johnson Controls UTC? (GE Security)
UTC UTC Niscayah
Siemens
Schneider Electric
Tyco
UTC
CISCO
IBM
OracleHP
Others, Accenture, Plexus, Wipro etc.
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Building Controls Product Trends
Sensor Better automatic control require more sensors Demand for smart sensor Demand in CO2 sensor
Demand for all-in-one sensor
Controller 42% are web-enabled controllers, mainly automation level controllers
End-users demand for standard protocol controllers Multi-protocol controllers
Wireless Still a very small market, mainly for sensors, < 5% Industry sees the potential in room solution Standards: Zigbee, 805.12.4, 6LoWPAN, EnOcean Key issues: energy demand, data transmission
capacity
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Trends in the Installed Building Controls System Market
Growing demand for integration of various building controls system to a centralized one
Increased share of smaller scaled contract Reduced contract size due to OEM packaged supply BACnet will continue to challenge LON’s share Proprietary system will continue to diminish Penetration of LON in smart meters
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Development of Integrated Building Management Systems (IBMS)
Integrate with sub-systems Integrate with other BAS
Integrate with other systems Integrate with other enterprises systems
Open Standards Enabling Convergence
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Development of IBMS
Integration with sub-systems is the norm Centralized monitoring and control more common Integrated systems are mostly IT converged Share information to improve building and enterprise
performance Integrate for the purpose of energy saving Driven by end users and ROI is the critical factor Better recognition of the benefits of integration in:
– Banking, transportation, education, health, high-tech manufacturing, life science, communication and data centre sectors
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How Quickly will Integration Grow?N
um
ber
of
Pro
jec
ts
Time
Hurdles:• Too much
customization
• Lack of standard applications
• Ability to demonstrate and convince the clients on ROI
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Key Market Drivers and Trends
Current drivers1. Energy management
– More function to reduce energy consumption– Data visualization software and enterprise dashboards– Integrate smart meters– Energy monitoring, reporting and analysis service
2. LEED and Energy Star Label3. Energy Legislation and codes4. Government stimulusLong term driver5. Smart grid development
– Monitor consumption and track min. and peaks– Automatic demand response– Demand modeling
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Key Market Drivers and Trends
Energy saving applications Open system Integration and IT convergence Increase in energy retrofit Consolidation will continue Compete in the knowledge in buildings and BAS
applications Controls contractors migrate to system integrators
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Lighting Controls Conclusions
Huge potential for lighting controls in the North American market
Integration of lighting controls with other building systems will increase - lots of push from manufacturers and end users are beginning to understand the returns
The transition to skilled and trained people with knowledge and understanding of energy management products will take time
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Lighting Controls Trends
DOE will play major role in driving control (and LED) standards Energy regulations through ASHRAE standard is big controls driver Standard open communication protocols is growing trend - mostly driven by
integration with other systems Integration and IP-Convergence growing but apart from HVAC adoption low Consolidation – Acuity/Philips/Cooper Controls acquiring companies to
provide total lighting solutions Wireless - ENOCEAN in commercial, Zigbee in residential Dimming Ballasts ~10% of total ballasts market in North America LED is growing market - still require controls for better efficiency
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Fire Detection/Alarm Market Penetration
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
GD
P /
Cap
ita
(US
$)
Total IBC(f) System Sales / Capita (USD) Sources: CIA World Factbook, BSRIA Proplan
Western Europe 7 (EU(7))* Average
* Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom 2008 estimates based on 2007 actual data
United Kingdom
Spain
Italy
Belgium
Germany
France
Netherlands
North America
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Fire Detection/Alarm Communications and Web Enabling
Majority of fire systems sold with proprietary protocol Some BACnet equipped panels but penetration marginal – using to
integrate fire panel with the HVAC system Strict fire codes make fire system integration to non-fire systems rare However, more end users insisting manufacturers make comms. protocol
details available to enable integration by independent integrators IP being used to connect fire panels with mass notification systems <10% of fire systems web-enabled (remote interrogation) but growing Web-enabled examples include small commercial chains as cost effective
solution to manage buildings portfolio Reticence towards IT-Convergence and limited installer knowledge Consolidated supply side limits innovation
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Security Systems Product Sales Forecast to 2013
Market opportunities reduced due macroeconomic situation
2009 sales fall, recovering end of 2010
Less feature rich products gain share in short term
Performance will vary by type of sub-system
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US
D m
illio
n
CCTV / Video surveillance sales
Product sales
Access Control
Intruder Alarm
GAGR 2008-2013
5.0%
6.7%
3.7%
2.0%
Growth 2008-2009
-1.9%
0%
-3%
-5%
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Integration of Security Systems
Increasing interest in holistic security solutions
20% of security systems sold in 2008 were integrated
Open architecture platforms and development of industry standards will have a positive impact on sales
However, demonstrable benefits of integration and return on investment are essential
High
Low
LowLow
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The future
Increase in energy saving applications and retrofit More security solutions Open systems, IP, integration, IT convergence Compete on knowledge of buildings and applications Controls contractors become system integrators and master SIs Consolidation / Partnerships between best-in-class suppliers IT companies augment their offering to include new applications
- Facility management, energy management, security…….
There will be more solution providers Educate, disseminate, prove ROI
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End
Thank you