New Lexicon Being Used For Risk Based Decisions Prospect ~ Alternatives Fire Fighter Exposure Budget -- Hour/Days Course Of Action – Strategy To Be Implemented

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1

Three Components of A Safe And Productive Unit

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Fai

r or

Jus

t

Rep

ortin

g

Lear

ning

Fle

xibl

eRespect feedback

Be willing to share concerns

Be a student

Rules don’t and can’t cover every situation

Safety Culture

Watch for Weak Signals of Failure Suspicious of Simple Interpretations Focus on Ongoing Operations Capacity for Flex and Bounce Back Locate and Defer to Expertise

Principles of an HRO :3

Version # 3 (HRO = Highly Reliable Organization)

Risk Mgt

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Helps Us Successfully Manage Risk During A Wildland Fire

During an incident…….From the Agency Administrator Perspective

Regional Forester Representative TeamRegional Forester Representative Team

Strategic Risk Assessment (SRA)

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What Is Successful Mgt of Risk?

Safely Managing Inherent Risks In A Manner That Meets Reasonable Objectives With Least Exposure To Incident Responders.

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Risk

Probability And Severity Of An Undesirable Outcome Linked To Hazards.

Hazards Undesirable Outcome

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Exposure

Exposing Fire Fighters To Hazards That May Result In Injury Or Possibly Death

Aviation

Fire Fighters

Public

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Be Cognizant Of Moving Risk To Private Sector

Three Levels of Risk Management

Unit

IMT

Operational

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Strategic

Deliberate

Time Critical

Time Data Decision Space

Decision (COA)

COA = Course Of Action

Strategic Risk Assessment

Outline For Strategic Risk Assessment

1. Risk Assessment

2. Risk Analysis

3. Risk Communication

4. Risk Sharing

Risk Decision (COA)

Periodic Assessment

1 10Corporate Scale

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See Template Handout

Preseason Work

COA = Course Of Action

Risk Assessment

What Values Are At Risk?

What Is The Likelihood Of Harm?

What Are The Consequences Of Harm?

What Are The Potential Benefits?

Etc

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• RAVAR – Rapid Assessment Values At Risk• Natural Resources

• FSPro – Fire Spread Probability• RERAP – Rare Event Risk Assessment Process

Risk Analysis

What Are Your Objectives? What Alt Offers The Best Tradeoffs? How Much FF Exposure Will Be Required? What Are The Tradeoffs Of FF Exposure, Impacts

to the Public, Political Fallout, and Impacts to Natural Resource?

Prospect 1

PROSPECT INPUT COST EXPOSURE

Resource Type

A: # of Resource

UnitsB: Persons Per Resource Unit

C: Days Needed

Rate Per Day Total Rate

Exp Hrs/Ss/Day Exp Hrs/Day

Total Person-Hours

Exposure (Unadjusted) Ω

Total Person-Hours Exposure

(Adjusted)

T1 Crews 12 20 12 $ 7,447 $ 1,072,368 14 168 40,320 1.3 52,416

T2 IA Crews 22 20 10 $ 8,155 $ 1,794,100 14 140 61,600 1.0 61,600

T2 Crews 20 $ 8,155 $ - 14 0 0 1.1 0

Fellers 2 $ 1,465 $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0

Engines 3 $ 1,210 $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0

Dozers 1 $ 1,456 $ - 14 0 0 1.1 0

Water Tender(s) 1 $ 1,440 $ - 14 0 0 1.1 0

Fixed Wing A/C 2 $ 2,000 $ - 6 0 0 1.0 0

Type 1 Helicopters 1 $ 4,000 $ - 6 0 0 1.1 0

Type 2 Helicopters 1 $ 1,773 $ - 6 0 0 1.0 0

Type 3 Helicopters 1 $ 1,008 $ - 6 0 0 1.0 0

Overhead (line) $ 826 $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0

Overhead (camp) $ 826 $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0

Other: ______________ $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0

Totals 34 72 22 $ 2,866,468 308 101,920 114,016

Prospect 1 Totals:

Total Responder Exposure (Adjusted): Hours 114,016

Total Estimated Cost: $ 2,866,468

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FF = Fire Fighter

Risk Communication

Have Stakeholders Been Consulted?Has Risk Assessment & Analysis Been Shared?Are Stakeholder’s Reactions Documented?

• Understanding• Degree Of Acceptance• Degree Of Support• Reactions• Concerns

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Risk SharingDialogue Draft Decision With Oversight Officials

• Risk Assessment• Risk Analysis• Risk Communication

Example, Engagement with:• Regional Forester• Political

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Risk Decision

Using Results From:1. Risk Assessment2. Risk Analysis3. Risk Communication4. Risk Sharing

Document The Formal Risk Decision:• Objectives: State Overall Objectives for Managing Wildfire• Decision: Course Of Action To Implement Desirable Prospect• Rationale:

Best Protects Life and Property Minimizes FF Exposure Required To Meet Objectives Reasonably Safe For FF To Implement

• Periodic Assessment: Document Your Intentions To Monitor.

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WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support SystemFF = Fire Fighter

1.Assessment2.Analysis3.Communication4.Sharing Decision

SRA

Defines ObjectivesDocuments Decision and COAGuides Deliberate & Time Critical Risk AssessmentProvides Documentation For FLAME Act

Strategic Risk Assessment Summary:

COA = Course of ActionWFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System

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1. Assessment2. Analysis3. Communication4. Sharing Decision

SRA(Unit)

(IMT)

(Operational)

SRA

Deliberate

Time Critical

Time Data Decision Space

Making SRA Value Added

Gather:• Line Officer• Fire Management Officer• Resource advisor(s)• Recorder

Discuss elements of SRA:1. Assessment2. Analysis3. Communication4. Sharing

Recorder:• Documents Discussion

Using SRA Template• Paste into WFDSS

Periodic Assessment

Early Warning Alert!Change is coming in FY11

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National Changes For Funding Large WF

Among others things:For Type 1 And 2 Incidents, The Forest Service Requires Agency Administrators to Develop and Document Their Risk Management Decision, i.e. Follow SRA Process

Stems From Past Expenditures On Managing Wildfires & Impacts On Agency Budgets. Culminating In:

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Fire Suppression Funding Changing - 2011+

Based On 5 Yr Moving Average Initial Attack and Extended Attack RF’s Accountable

Rebased To Reflect Actual Expenses

Reimburses T1 & T2 Fires Secretarial Concurrence Based On SRA Decisions Not Receiving Concurrence, Funded In Dispute

Requires A Presidential Declaration Audit Trail Of Risk Decisions Made For Type 1 And 2

Fires Is Used For Declaration

Preparedness

Regional Suppression

Accounts

FLAME Act Fund

Contingency Reserve Fund

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(Continued)

?

CR?

How SRA Will Be Used

Type 1 & 2 Fires

2011 Continue with SRA

2010We

Practiced

FF safety

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FLAME Act

1. Assessment2. Analysis3. Communication4. Sharing Decision

SRA

ReflectionsCommentsConcerns

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