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From Spatiality to From Spatiality to FlowsFlows

Dr. Mika AaltolaDr. Mika Aaltola

Programme Director, The Finnish Programme Director, The Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Institute of International Affairs,

FinlandFinland

Professor, University of Tallinn, Professor, University of Tallinn, EstoniaEstonia

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“[t]o enable economic growth and commerce, America, working in conjunction with allies and partners around the world, will seek to protect

freedom of access throughout the global commons […]. Global security and prosperity are increasingly dependent on the free flow of goods shipped by air or sea […]. The United States will continue to lead global efforts with capable allies and partners to assure access to and use of the

global commons, both by strengthening international norms of responsible behaviour and

by maintaining relevant and interoperable military capabilities.“

Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership (2012) United States Department of Defense

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Operation ATALANTAOperation ATALANTA

UNSC Resolutions 1816, 1838, 1848, 1846, UNSC Resolutions 1816, 1838, 1848, 1846, 18511851

Council of Europe Joint Action Council of Europe Joint Action 2008/851/CFSP2008/851/CFSP

20+ European Countries, Dozen ships20+ European Countries, Dozen ships US Combined Task Force 151, NATO US Combined Task Force 151, NATO

Operation Ocean Shield, China, India, Operation Ocean Shield, China, India, Japan…Japan…

Transit CorridorTransit Corridor Maritime Security Centre – Horn of AfricaMaritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa

Risk assessment, navigation news, advice on Risk assessment, navigation news, advice on protectionprotection

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Future Crisis Management?Future Crisis Management?

……From a comprehensive agenda of From a comprehensive agenda of social transformation towards a more social transformation towards a more

limited goal of securing resilient critical limited goal of securing resilient critical flows and infrastructuresflows and infrastructures

Global FlowsGlobal Flows

Flow as “purposeful, repetitive, programmable sequence of exchange and interaction between physically disjointed positions held by social actors” (Castells, 1996).

Global flows are disjunctive and chaotic; they “follow increasingly nonisomorphic paths” and the “sheer speed, scale, and volume of […] of flows are now so great that the disjunctures have become central to the politics of global culture” (Appadurai, 2000).

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Global Maritime FlowsGlobal Maritime Flows

Global Airmobility FlowsGlobal Airmobility Flows

Global Cyber FlowsGlobal Cyber Flows

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Human dimension: Human dimension: Drones?Drones?

U.S. military: drone program To detect “patterns of life” (pattern of life

assessment) Inter-domain technologies to understand the

adversary fully embedded in local civilian communities

Monitoring flow-like practice relevant information (e.g. 15 hours)

Provide unique fingerprint of the community:

“[…] networked sensors are able to form a pattern of life in order to compare normal pattern with activities that are out of ordinary” (Shortland, 2012).

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Communities of Practice Communities of Practice (CoP)(CoP)

Focusing on human agency and Focusing on human agency and activityactivity

Based on ontology of doing (vs. Based on ontology of doing (vs. spatiality)spatiality)

Bundling of discourse and Bundling of discourse and materiality (artifacts, technology materiality (artifacts, technology and systems)and systems)

Clarifies complexity and enables the Clarifies complexity and enables the identification identification ‘‘of the actual and of the actual and possiblepossible’’

Conditions for Redefining the Conditions for Redefining the Boundaries of PracticeBoundaries of Practice

Trigger conditions (yes/no):Trigger conditions (yes/no): CapabilityCapability OpportunityOpportunity Vicinity/Access to FlowVicinity/Access to Flow Effective governanceEffective governance International blind spotInternational blind spot Lack of coercive powerLack of coercive power War economyWar economy Bounty utilityBounty utility Perception of injusticePerception of injustice Presence of ideological legitimationPresence of ideological legitimation Standard of living gapStandard of living gap Existence key knowhow owners /knowledge championsExistence key knowhow owners /knowledge champions Recognized pattern of lifeRecognized pattern of life

Communities of Practice Communities of Practice Mapping (CPM)Mapping (CPM)

DisruptionCo-option

ProtectionSustainment

Global Flow Global Flow Communities (GFC) Communities (GFC)

The main community of practice is comprised by The main community of practice is comprised by the human know-how and intertwining the human know-how and intertwining interdomain material technologies that maintain interdomain material technologies that maintain a global flowa global flow Sticky in the sense that they are continuous , Sticky in the sense that they are continuous ,

standardized, and patterned: standardized, and patterned: GFCs are GFCs are ““purposeful, repetitive, programmable, purposeful, repetitive, programmable,

sequence of exchange and interaction between sequence of exchange and interaction between physically disjointed positions held by social physically disjointed positions held by social actorsactors”” (Castells 1996, 412) (Castells 1996, 412)

GFCs are geographically global, dispersed, and GFCs are geographically global, dispersed, and transnational.transnational.

GFCs are supported by long histories.GFCs are supported by long histories. GFCs are relatively resilient.GFCs are relatively resilient. GFCs have developed means of coping with GFCs have developed means of coping with

reoccurring disruptions.reoccurring disruptions.

Disruption Communities of Disruption Communities of Practise (DCP): Practise (DCP):

New practices create new vulnerabilities. New practices create new vulnerabilities. They create opportunities to disrupt the They create opportunities to disrupt the global flows.global flows. DCPs learn to co-opt the flow practices for DCPs learn to co-opt the flow practices for

their own benefittheir own benefit DCPs have outlier-status: DCPs have outlier-status:

self-aware and have developed strategic self-aware and have developed strategic rationale for their disruptive actionsrationale for their disruptive actions

e.g. Somali pirate groups: justification as e.g. Somali pirate groups: justification as ‘‘tax collectiontax collection’’ for the perceived injustices for the perceived injustices that Somalia had enduredthat Somalia had endured

Successful DCPs can attract other actors to Successful DCPs can attract other actors to join the efforts; join the efforts;

can also act as a model for similar can also act as a model for similar innovations by other possible DCPs innovations by other possible DCPs (criminal and political) (criminal and political)

Security Communities of Security Communities of Global Commons (SCGC) Global Commons (SCGC)

Coalition beneficiaries have a vested interest in Coalition beneficiaries have a vested interest in plugging the vulnerabilities and in securing the plugging the vulnerabilities and in securing the flows.flows.

Difficulty for SCGCs derives from the complexity and Difficulty for SCGCs derives from the complexity and

transnational nature of the global flows. transnational nature of the global flows. SCGC can use SCGC can use international institutions international institutions and and

regimes to regulate the GFCs so as to create better regimes to regulate the GFCs so as to create better standards and allow for more resilience. standards and allow for more resilience.

SCGC can join forces with SCGC can join forces with private actors private actors – e.g. – e.g. security and insurance companies – to strengthen the security and insurance companies – to strengthen the GFCs. GFCs.

SCGC can use SCGC can use military means military means which integrate inter-which integrate inter-domain technologies in securing the main arteries of domain technologies in securing the main arteries of global interdependency. global interdependency.

Effective securing of the global flows requires Effective securing of the global flows requires constant mapping of the relevant and outlier constant mapping of the relevant and outlier communities of practice (CPMs), and the evolving communities of practice (CPMs), and the evolving global flow communities (GFCs)global flow communities (GFCs)

Communities of Practice Communities of Practice (CoP): (CoP):

Characteristic scalesCharacteristic scalesAnalytic framework based on multidimensional knowledge Analytic framework based on multidimensional knowledge mining approach. Focus on (1) mapping comprehensively mining approach. Focus on (1) mapping comprehensively what is already knowledge; (2) finding information gaps what is already knowledge; (2) finding information gaps and signs of knowledge blank spots; (3) filtering of and signs of knowledge blank spots; (3) filtering of redundant knowledgeredundant knowledge

State of CoP: Established / Embryonic State of CoP: Established / Embryonic Technological sophistication of CoP: Know-how in one / Many Technological sophistication of CoP: Know-how in one / Many

domainsdomains Networked nature of CoP: Open / ClosedNetworked nature of CoP: Open / Closed Geographical spread of CoP: Localized / Regional / GlobalGeographical spread of CoP: Localized / Regional / Global Proximity points to the GFC: Many, Few, NoneProximity points to the GFC: Many, Few, None Compositional intensity of CoP: Diffuse / Concentrated Compositional intensity of CoP: Diffuse / Concentrated Transformational ability of CoP: Innovative / RigidTransformational ability of CoP: Innovative / Rigid Vulnerability of CoP: High / LowVulnerability of CoP: High / Low Disruptive and exploitative capability of CoP: Advanced / Disruptive and exploitative capability of CoP: Advanced /

RudimentaryRudimentary The nature of (background) knowledge of CoP: Sticky and The nature of (background) knowledge of CoP: Sticky and

Non-transferrable / Flexible and TransferrableNon-transferrable / Flexible and Transferrable