1 future changes in fuel mix of electricity generation in hong kong and implications by larry...
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Future Changes in Fuel Mix of Future Changes in Fuel Mix of Electricity Generation in Hong Kong Electricity Generation in Hong Kong
and Implications and Implications
ByLarry Chuen-ho Chow
Professor, Department of Geography Director, Hong Kong Energy Studies Centre
Hong Kong Baptist University
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1. Hong Kong 2009 population 7.004 million
per capita GDP U.S. $29,401
-- Hong Kong does not produce any energy
-- 2009 Total Primary Energy Requirements (PER):
577,073 TJ (19.690 million tce)
Coal 51.9%
Oil & Natural Gas 43.2%
Nuclear Power 4.9%
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2. Dominant Role of Electricity in HK Energy Economy
-- 2009 amount of coal, natural gas and oil products used for power generation: 389,030 Tj
-- Total amount of coal, natural gas and oil products consumed in HK: 548,780 Tj Share of power generation: 70.9%
Fuel Mix of Final Energy Requirements (%)
Coal Oil Products Electricity Towngas
--- 42.4 48.7 8.9
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3. Maximum installed capacity 12,624 MW
Peak demand 10,153 MW
Local generation 139,420 Tj
Imports 41,725 Tj
Exports 13,432 Tj
Net Imports 28,293 Tj
Local consumption 149,366 Tj
Net imports as share of local consumption 20.3%
Sectoral Consumption of Electricity (%)
Domestic Commercial Industrial
26.1% 66.4% 7.5%
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4. Six Major Types of GHG
1. CO2 most important
2. CH4
3. NOX
4.-6. Synthetic Gases like HFC
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5.GHG Emissions by Sector, 2008
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6. Reduction in GHG Emissions, 2005-2020
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7. Fuel Mix for Power Generation (%)
2009 2020
Coal 54 <10
Natural Gas 23 40
Nuclear 23 50
Renewable Energy -- 3-4
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8. Two power companies in Hong Kong
CLP
Hong Kong Electric
Governed by a scheme of control for 10 years up to 2018
-- permitted return based on 9.99% of net fixed assets
-- 11.0% for investments in renewable energy
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9. Current Prices of Electricity (cents/kwh)
Nuclear Coal-fired Gas-fired
50 40-60 70-90
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10. Factors Affecting Future Electricity Tariff
A. Future Price of Different Fuels
-- Nuclear expected to be cheaper than gas-fired power
-- Price of natural gas expected to rise and be volatile
B. Investments in new power plants and other infrastructures
-- New combined cycle plants
-- Transmission facilities
-- LNG terminal in Guangdong (and nuclear power plant ?)
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11. Impacts on Energy Security
A. Security of nuclear power supplyi) Inability to store electricityii) Dedicated transmission line to Hong
Kong
B. How much generation capacity to be maintained in Hong Kong
C. Natural gas supply: No problem
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12. Use of Nuclear Power in World 2010 (Jan) 436 reactors in 30 states
-- Total installed capacity: 372 000MW
-- Provided 15% of world electricity
3/4 electricity nuclear: France
1/2 electricity nuclear: Belgium, Sweden
1/3 electricity nuclear: Finland, Germany, S. Korea, Switzerland
1/4 electricity nuclear: Japan
1/5 electricity nuclear: Russia, Spain, USA
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12. Use of Nuclear Power in World (cont’)
53 reactors under construction
≈14% present installed capacity
141 reactors in planning stage
≈ 41% present installed capacity
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13. Use of Nuclear Power in HK Daya Bay Plant
2 reactors plus Conghua pumped storage plant
-- total capacity 1968 MW
-- started in 1994
-- produced 14 billion kwh per year, 70% supplied to HK
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14. Nuclear: No Air Pollution & GHG Use of nuclear from Daya Bay reduced emission of
i) 7.5 million tons of CO2
ii) tens of thousand tons of SOx & NOx
iii) hundreds of tons of particulates
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Year Total GHG emissions(kilotonnes CO2-e)
Per capita emissions(tonnes CO2-e)
Carbon Intensity (kg CO2-e per HKD GDP)
1990 35 300 6.2 0.044
1991 38 800 6.7 0.046
1992 43 000 7.4 0.048
1993 43 400 7.4 0.046
1994 35 900 5.9 0.036
1995 36 900 6.0 0.036
1996 35 600 5.5 0.033
1997 34 100 5.3 0.030
1998 35 500 5.4 0.033
1999 33 300 5.0 0.031
2000 34 600 5.2 0.029
2001 34 700 5.2 0.029
2002 36 200 5.4 0.030
2003 39 600 5.9 0.032
2004 39 800 5.9 0.030
2005 42 000 6.2 0.029
2006 42 300 6.2 0.027
2007 43 300 6.3 0.026
2008 42 000 6.0 0.025
15.Past GHG Emissions and Carbon Intensity, 1990-2008
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16. Resurgence in Use of Nuclear Since 1990s
Concern about Global Warming
USA: New Plants began to be ordered since Three-Mile-Island Accident
U.K.: Building new plants
Germany: Decided to extend life of existing ones
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17. Safety of Nuclear Power
Apart from Windscale, Three-mile-Island & Chernobyl, no serious accidents
Exceptionally stringent operational procedures & well trained staff
Each important control has a back-up system
Strong concrete structure Pressure vessel in stainless steel
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18. Costs of Nuclear Power Affected by many factors i) safety coefficient needed
ii) interest costs
iii) insurance costs
iv) waste disposal costs
v) decommissioning costs
vi) price of uranium
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END