1 gfnorte: 4q07 results february, 2008. 2 1.4q07 overview. 2.asset quality. 3.stock metrics. 4.final...

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1 GFNORTE: 4Q07 Results February, 2008

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1

GFNORTE:4Q07 Results

February, 2008

2

1. 4Q07 Overview.

2. Asset Quality.

3. Stock Metrics.

4. Final Considerations.

Contents

3

Yearly Recap

Performing Loan Growth 19% 32%

2007

Net Income

Stock Price

P/BV

2006

6,185

Net Interest Margin

11%

42.25

3.15

7.7%

7%

2.75

7.6%

6,810

45.08

ROA 2.8% 2.6%

ROE 24.9% 22.6%

Book Value 13.42 16.42

Past Due Loan Ratio 1.4% 1.5%

22%

10%

CONSTANT MILLION PESOS

4

Quarterly Net IncomeCONSTANT MILLION PESOS

1,685

1,018

4Q04 4Q05

1,560

4Q06

1,263

4Q07

5

2006

15%

12%

(36%)

(28%)

(2%)

9%

12%

6%

798%

1%

10%

67%

(95%)

2007

17,384

6,028

580

1,292

7,899

25,283

14,432

10,851

1,867

(3,293)

6,810

(2,645)

31

Change

15,069

5,391

900

1,782

8,072

23,141

12,931

10,210

208

(3,255)

6,185

(1,588)

610

QoQ YoY

24%

17%

21%

(82%)

(5%)

14%

13%

16%

3,283%

(8%)

8%

170%

(130%)

4Q06 4Q07

4,881

1,666

164

83

1,914

6,795

3,841

2,954

382

(694)

1,685

(921)

(36)

3,931

1,424

136

450

2,010

5,941

3,395

2,546

(12)

(756)

1,560

(341)

122

Income StatementCONSTANT MILLION PESOS

Net Interest Income

Service Fees

Recovery

FX and Trading

Non Interest Income

Total Income

Non Interest Expense

Net Operating Income

Non Operating Income, Net

Income Tax

Net Income

Provisions

Subs & Minority Interest

6

Comparable Results

Net Interest Income 14,515

2007

17,38420%

MILLION PESOS

Non Interest Income 7,185 7,89910%

Total Income 21,700 25,28317%

Non Interest Expense 13,157 14,43210%

2006Accounting

Standards ‘07

Operating Profit 8,534 10,85127%

7

Non Interest ExpenseCONSTANT BILLION PESOS

EFFICIENCY RATIO

Non Interest Expense

2006

12.9

2007

14.412%

56.8%

2005

55.0%

2006

56.3%

2007

Accounting Changes

52.9%

3.4 pp

8

Net Interest Margin vs CETESPERCENTAGE

CETES

NIM

4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07

99%

111%

4Q07

8.6

7.6

7.18.5

7.57.07.07.07.1 7.1 7.2 7.4

7.98.0

7.7 7.5 7.78.2

9

Core DepositsCONSTANT BILLION PESOS

Mix

Demand

Time

Demand

Time

Total

Deposits 4Q05 4Q074Q06

111

64

175

99

56

154

82

43

125 13%23%

13%

14%

21%

30%

63%

37%

100%

64%

36%

100%

66%

34%

100%

10

CONSTANT BILLION PESOS

Performing Loan Portfolio

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07 QoQChange

YoY

Commercial

Corporate

Government

Total

Consumer

23%10%

47%19%

60%0%

32%10%

29%7%

75

37

18

193

63

68

31

18

175

59

61

25

11

146

49

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07

146175

193

11

Performing Consumer Loan PortfolioCONSTANT BILLION PESOS

4Q05 3Q07 4Q07

4959 63

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07 QoQChange

YoY

Car Loans

Credit Card Loans

Payroll Loans

Consumer

10%3%

41%9%

20%1%

29%7%

7

14

6

63

7

13

6

59

7

10

5

49

Mortgage Loans 31%9%363328

12

AUTO

2005 2006

4.75.3

2007

6.3

MORTGAGE

2005 2006

7.4

11.0

2007

12.0

PAYROLL & PERSONAL

2005 2006

4.35.6

2007

6.7

Consumer LoansORIGINATION IN CONSTANT BILLION PESOS

13

Credit CardsTHOUSANDS OF NEW CARDS

263

518

2005 2006

190

2004

709

2007

14

Increase in risk adjusted profitability.

New products:

Mujer Banorte / Inmediata / Platinum / Empuje Negocios.

Ya Bájale: record level of balances transferred.

Ps $3.0 billion pesos (+47% YoY).

Diversification of distribution channels.

Development of existing portfolio.

Campaigns to promote usage and commercial alliances.

Credit Card: 2007 Achievements

15

Capitalization Ratio

Tier 1

Tier 2

TOTAL

Percentage Tier 1

PERCENTAGE

10.2%

3.6%

13.8%

2005 2006 2007

74%

13.3% 12.2%

2.8% 5.1%

16.1% 17.4%

83% 70%

16

Credit Ratings

+1

+2

=

Notches Over

Investment Grade

Baa1

BBB

BBB-

International Rating

Fitch

Moody’s

Standard & Poor’s

Agency

Positive

Positive

Stable

Outlook Date

Sep-07

Sep -07

Dec-07

17

Subsidiaries

18

Recovery BankingNET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

Total

2005

917

2006

715

2007

766

AUM IN BILLION PESOS

20072006

5.2

54.4

6.7

51.8Loan Book

Assets

%

29%

(5%)

1.3 2.4Projects 85%

19

Long Term Savings

AFORE

148

53

2005 2006

INSURANCE

224168

2005 2006

ANNUITIES

50

323

2005 20062007

82

2007

136

2007

170

Total

2005

422

2006

545

2007

388

ROE: 16%

ROE: 24%

ROE: 20%

NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

20

Other Finance Companies

FACTORING

7392

WHAREHOUSING

15 11

LEASING

86

122107

140

15

Total

2005

197

2006

256

2007

271

ROE: 23%

ROE: 30%

ROE: 13%

2005 2006 2005 20062005 20062007 2007 2007

NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

21

Other Subsidiaries

BROKERAGE MICROLENDING

(20)

232005

2006(30)

2007

ROE: 33%

80

191

2005 2006

288

2007

NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

22

Banorte USA

MILLION DOLLARS

20072006

INB

Performing Loans

Efficiency

ROE

Net Income (70%)

Net Interest Margin

974

4.4%

15.8

41.6%

21.5%

779

12.5

19.4%

46.4%

4.6%

11%25%

11%26%

23

Business Indicators

Customers

AUM

Infrastructure

24

Customers

3.9

2.9

2.4

2004

Bank

Afore

Insurance

MILLIONS

9.2

4

2.4

6.2

3.3

3.2

2007

12.7

25

BILLION PESOS

Assets Under Management

Bank

Brokerage House

Long Term Savings

242

119

2004

39534

357

181

2007

596

58

26

Infrastructure

Distribution Channel 2007

Branches

ATM´s

POS

1,051

3,674

27,857

Employees 17,348

994

3,140

21,453

15,929

2006

6%

17%

30%

9%

27

2. Asset Quality

28

Asset Quality

Past Due Loans

Loan Loss Reserves

RESERVECOVERAGE

PAST DUE LOANRATIO

Total Loan Portfolio

CONSTANT BILLION PESOS

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07

2.1

3.7

150

2.7

3.6

179

2.9

3.8

197

131%

172%

132%

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07

1.5%1.4%

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07

1.5%

29

Reserve Creation from Loan Book

Mortgage

Corporate / Commercial

Government

Credit Card

696

76

1,229

539

Other Consumer

279

2007

Total 2,818

% of Total

25

2

44

19

10

100

69% of total

CONSTANT MILLION PESOS

30

Loan Book Performance

Mortgage

Corporate / Commercial

Government

Credit Card

14%

60%

41%

31%

Other Consumer

30%

Total 32%

ROE

38%

19%

31%

16%

21%

3.6%

0%

6.5%

0.8%

(0.2%)

Loan Growth

Net Credit Losses

23% 0.9%

2007

31

3. Stock Metrics

32

60

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

460

500

540

Dec

-07

Oc

t-0

7

Au

g-0

7

Ju

n-0

7

Ap

r-0

7

Fe

b-0

7

Dec

-06

Oc

t-0

6

Au

g-0

6

Ju

n-0

6

Ap

r-0

6

Fe

b-0

6

Dec

-05

Oc

t-0

5

Au

g-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Ap

r-0

5

Fe

b-0

5

Dec

-04

Oc

t-0

4

Au

g-0

4

Ap

r-0

4

Ap

r-0

4

Fe

b-0

4

Dec

-03

Stock Performance

IPC: 341

Banorte: 483

2004-2007

Inbursa: 244

33

Stock Turnover: Daily Volume

MILLION DOLLARS

2003 2004

2.3

4.9

2005

10.3

2006

13.9

CAGR = 72%

2007

20.3

34

Market Capitalization

7,858

2006

3,174

1,751

2003 2004

4,229

2005

8,341

2007

CAGR = 48%

MILLION DOLLARS

35

LatAm Bank’s Performance

Bradesco

(23%)

Banco deChile

46%

Unibanco

55%

(4%)

Banco Macro

Bancolombia

11%

ItaúBanorte

7%

44%

Inbursa

2007 RETURNS IN DOLLARS

34%

36

LatAm Valuations

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0

P/BV

P/E

Bradesco54.6

Santander - Chile8.7

Bancolombia6.2

Unibanco18.3

Banco do Brasil41.7

GFNorte7.9

Itaú 55.1

BILLION DOLLARS

37

4. Final Considerations

38

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Financial Penetration

7%7%6%6%

14%

38%

BANK CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR AS % OF GDP

8% 10% 12%

26%

10%8% 7%

15%

+23 pp

39

LatAm Comparison

34% 33%

13%

24%

72%

Chile Colombia Average ArgentinaMexico

Bank

Other

15%

9%

33%

Brazil

22%

Peru

CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR AS % OF GDP

40

Challenges 2008

Infrastructure 80 new branches + 20 refurbishments.

600 new ATM’s + 330 substitutions.

12,000 POS’s.

SME’s Low bancarization levels.

New secular growth story.

Specialized products & sales force.

Asset Quality Improve origination & follow up process.

Efforts to reduce reserve requirements.

41

Challenges 2008

Banorte USA

Microlending

Alternate channels

Greater revenue synergies.

New products.

Calibration of business model.

Emphasis on profitability & asset quality.

Seek new alliances.

Middle & lower income segments.

Government banking Increased loan demand.

Emphasis on payrolls.

42

Medium Term Challenges

Adequate reading of uncertain environment.

Asset quality & profitability.

Investment:

Competitive infrastructure.

Cost containment.

Alternate distribution channels.

Funding costs and capitalization.

43