1 gte winter outlook 2007 brussels, january 8 th 2008 paolo mosa gte vice-president chairman of the...
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1
GTE Winter Outlook 2007
Brussels, January 8th 2008
Paolo MosaGTE Vice-President Chairman of the GTE Transparency WG
2
Background
Updated results
Additional findings
Table of contents
3
Background
GTE WO presented to GCG on 25th October for
the first time
The study showed the existence of a
capacity/demand balance at EU level: normal cold conditions
exceptional cold conditions
GTE invited to develop further analysis: considering the depletion of national productions
identifying possible internal bottlenecks
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Background
Updated results
Additional findings
Table of contents
5
Data improvements
Higher number of participating countries
passing from 19 to 21 countries
National production figures reviewed to consider
depletion of fields
previous year flows in substitution of max tech capacity
Some figures updated by 5 countries on the basis of
refined assumptions
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Involved CountriesEU members – data
EU members – no data
Non EU members
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Updated European Balance
EU ''CAPACITY - DEMAND BALANCE'' (GWh/d)
TOTAL CAPACITY INTERCONNECTED WITH IMPORT & LNG 14.634
TOTAL NATIONAL PRODUCTION 9.255
TOTAL STORAGE 11.702
35.591
TOTAL MARKET (NORMAL CONDITIONS) 27.419
TOTAL MARKET (EXCEPTIONAL CONDITIONS) 32.803
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Background
Updated results
Additional findings
Table of contents
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Single country balances normal cold conditions
exceptional cold conditions
Integrated EU flow patterns normal cold conditions
exceptional cold conditions
Additional findings
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Single country balance
Import capacity at entry points
National production past flows*
+
Storage send out capacity**
+
+
Exit capacity to other countries
Market demand forecast
-
-
Single Country balance=
in normal condition in exceptional condition
in normal condition in exceptional condition
* to take into account the depletion of production fields** considering the decrease of performances during the winter
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Normal Conditions – Single country balancesBalance ≥ 5%
0% < Balance < 5%
Balance ≤ 0%
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Normal conditions vs. Exceptional conditions
10% < (E/N) < 30%
No difference
(E/N) ≤ 10%
(E/N) ≥ 30%
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Exceptional Conditions – Single country balances
- 5% < Balance < 0%
Balance ≤ -5%
Balance ≥ 0%
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Single country balances vs Integrated EU flow patterns
3 critical single
country balances
experienced in normal
conditions
?
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Integrated EU flow patterns
Identification of at least one pattern of flows between EU
countries that respects the following conditions
Flows from non EU countries ≤ Entry point capacities
Flows between countries ≤ IPs capacities
Flows from storages ≤ send out capacity*
Flows from national productions ≤ past winter flows
Flows in exit from each country = national intakes – mkt demand
* taking into account the decrease of performances during the winter
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Integrated EU flow pattern – Normal condition
93%ST: 85%
NP: 65%
90%68%
NP: 93%
75% ST: 92% 86% 85%ST: 91% NP: 78%
ST: 78%
80% 72% 78%73% 69%
77%13% NP: 64% 91% 78%
ST: 60% 44%46% ST: 80%
ST: 70% 84%89% 78% 41% 82% ST: 85%
81% NP: 72% 98%75% ST: 71% 78%
40% 48% 97%53% 81% NP: 90%
ST: 80%
NP: 75% 67% 99% NP: 98%
ST: 74% 72% ST: 98%
96%80% 80%
45%NP: 80%
ST: 51% ST: 80% 37%ST:
ST: 68%
53%
80%36%
50% 81%
N FI N
ES
EST
LT
LV
D
CZ
S
I
UK
P
F
DK
HU
SK
AU
SI
CH
LUX
B
NL
GR
BU
RO
PL
HR
SR
BY
UA
I E
Entry/Exit flows from/to non EU countries
Entry/Exit flows between EU countries
NP:
ST:
Flows from National Production
Flows from Storage
FIGURE LEGEND
* IPs capacities are aggregated values (lesser of rule applies)
% Utilization ratio of the infrastructure
Utilization ratio < max reference value
Utilization ratio = max reference value
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Integrated EU flow pattern – Exceptional condition93%
ST: 62%NP: 100%
100%91%
NP: 93%
82% ST: 94% 99% 94%ST: 90%
NP: 100%
100% 100% ST: 87% 87%98% 12%
97%38% NP: 100% 99% 98%
ST: 68% 58%94% ST: 100%
ST: 87% 94%85% 99% 88% 96% ST: 93%
55% NP: 100% 100%100% ST: 64% 87%
40% 91% 92%80% 100% NP: 100%
ST: 96%
NP: 100% 100%ST: 100% 100% NP: 100%
90% 100% ST: 100%
85% 95%91%
NP: 100%
ST: 15% ST: 99% 16%ST:
ST: 16%
13%
100%100%
93% 89%
ES
EST
LT
LV
D
CZ
S
I
UK
P
F
N
DK
HU
SK
AU
SI
CH
LUX
B
NL
FI N
GR
BU
RO
PL
HR
SR
BY
UA
I EI EEntry/Exit flows from/to non EU countries
Entry/Exit flows between EU countries
NP:
ST:
Flows from National Production
Flows from Storage
FIGURE LEGEND
* IPs capacities are aggregated values (lesser of rule applies)
% Utilization ratio of the infrastructure
Utilization ratio < max reference value
Utilization ratio = max reference value
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Key findings
3 critical single country balances in normal cold conditions
Out of balance at national level solved considering flow patterns resulting from EU network integration
Flexibility already existing inside countries and in IPs both in normal and exceptional cold conditions
Future investments to follow increase in market demand and to improve flexibility at IPs