1 gw-y2 gw-y 45 gw-y6 gw-y “cathedral” photovoltaics · 2019-08-31 · global energy savings...
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0 10 10 91 0Years
“Cathedral” Photovoltaics
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 8
0 GW-y1 GW-y3 GW-y6 GW-y10 GW-y15 GW-y21 GW-y28 GW-y36 GW-y45 GW-y0 GW-y3 GW-y1 GW-y2 GW-y
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Cumulative GW installed
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
WEO 2002WEO 2004WEO 2006WEO 2008WEO 2010WEO 2012WEO 2014WEO 2015WEO 2016WEO 2017ActualBNEF forecast
Wind Solar
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
6⨉ upward revision since
2002
23⨉ upward revision since
2002
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook series, Bloomberg New Energy Finance June 2017 forecast. Slide inspired by Michael Liebreich’s 2016 BNEF Summit keynote
International Energy Agency global wind and solar forecasts
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French windpower output, December 2011: forecasted one day ahead vs. actual
Variable Renewables Can Be Forecasted At Least as Accurately as Electricity Demand
Source: Bernard Chabot, 10 April 2013, Fig. 7, www.renewablesinternational.net/wind-power-statistics-by-the-hour/150/505/61845/, data from French TSO RTE
GW
0
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
4.55
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!10% Downtime
!12% Downtime
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GW
Day
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Original loadLoad after efficiency
Geothermal etc.
Choreographing Variable Renewable GenerationERCOT power pool, Texas summer week, 2050 (RMI hourly simulation, 2004 renewables data
HVAC ice/EV storageBiomass/biogas
Storage recoveryDemand response
Solar (25 GW)Wind (37 GW)
Spilled power (~5%)
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Europe, 2015–17 renewable % of total electricity consumed
Choreographing Variable Renewable Generation
36%
60%Denmark 2015 (42% wind, 11% bio) (2013 windpower peak 136%—55% for all December)
68%Scotland 2017 (53% without hydro)
46%Peninsular Spain (2016, 27% without hydro)
63%Portugal (2016, 29% without hydro) (2011 & 2016 peak 100%; 70% for 1H2013 incl. 26% wind & 34% hydro)
Germany 1H2018 (2016 peak 88%, 2018 ~90–100%)
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1980
Transitioning to distributed renewables in DenmarkCentral thermalOther generationWind turbines
2012
Source: Risø
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Grid flexibility resources cost
efficient use
demand response
(all values shown are conceptual and illustrative)
accurate forecasting
of wind + PV
diversify renewables by type and
location
dispatchable renewables and
cogeneration
bulk storage
fossil-fueled
backup
distributed electricity storageincl. EVs
thermal storage
ability to accommodatereliably a large share ofvariable renewable power
(hydrogen storage not shown because its quantity is indeterminate)
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Flexible loads: goodbye “duck curve”These eight levers combine to make net load far smoother and lower (ERCOT, summer 2050)
-15-10-505
10152025303540455055
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Load Net Load
GW
2 Res Plug Load
3 Res DHW
4 Comm DHW
5 Res Cooling
6 Comm Cooling
7 Res Heating
8 Comm Heating
1 El Vehicles
New Net Load
Source: RMI analysis by Harry Masters, 2016, in course of publication
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In Westchester, NY, 60% of residential consumption in the next decade could come more cheaply from PV
Source: RMI analysis “The Economics of Load Defection,” 2015
Cheaper renewables and batteries change the game
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Load control + PVs = grid optional
0"
2"
4"
6"
8"
10"
12"
kW#
Uncontrolled: ~50% of solar PV production is sent to the grid, but if the utility doesn’t pay for that energy, how could customers respond?
EV-charging
!"!!!!
!2.00!!
!4.00!!
!6.00!!
!8.00!!
!10.00!!
!12.00!!
kW#
Unc!Load! Smart!AC! Smart!DHW! Smart!Dryer!
0"
2"
4"
6"
8"
10"
12"
kW#
Controlled: flexible load enables customers to consume >80% of solar PV production onsite. The utility loses nearly all its windfall and most of its ordinary revenue.
AC
DHW
Dryer
Other
Solar PVAC
DHW
Dryer
Other
Solar PVEV-charging
Source: RMI analysis “The Economics of Load Flexibility,” 2015
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Accelerating plug-in auto growth and falling battery priceGlobal Plug In vehicles, now 4 million, are growing ~50% per year, with battery pack price now below $200/kWh and falling fast
Sources: BNEF, EV-Volumes; S: https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103667_electric-car-battery-costs-tesla-190-per-kwh-for-pack-gm-145-for-cellsQuattro: https://electrek.co/2017/06/28/audi-electric-car-battery-cost/
for-2016-145kwh-cell-cost-volt-margin-improves-3500/
Battery pack price, 2011–2017 (nominal $)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 Audi Quattro
$114/kWh
Plug-In Vehicle sales, 2011–2017
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017United States China Europe Other
2016 Tesla S
$190/kWh
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From PIGS to SEALS
Personal Internal-combustion Gasoline Steel Shareable Electric Autonomous Lightweight [mobility-as-a-]Service
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中华人民共和国 国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要
2016年03月17日
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Tripled US end-use efficiency and quintupled renewables by 2050
IRRs: 33% buildings, 21% industry, 17% mobility, 14% all those plus a resilient, 80%-renewable, 50%-distributed electricity system.Real hurdle rates for efficiency investments, based on 2011 sectoral risk/reward tolerances: autos 3-y retail payback, heavy trucks 15%/y, buildings 7%/y, industry 12%/y, electricity generation 5.7%/y (based on investor-owned utilities’ weighted-average cost of capital).Analysis in constant 2009 $; discounting to 2010 present value is at OMB’s 3%/y prescribed for federal energy-efficiency investments.Activity levels and energy prices from USEIA’s 2010 Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case, extrapolated to 2050.Sectoral adoption rates based on stock-and-flow or consumer-choice models consistent with observed market behavior. No material lifestyle changes. No externalities. Many technical conservatisms. No new (post-2010) inventions. No Acts of Congress.
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Trilli
on 2
009
chai
ned
$
14.5
15.5
16.5
17.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RFActual
TWh/
y
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RFActual
Renewable electricity generation
GDP
kBTU
/
2009
$ c
hain
ed G
DP
5
6
7
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RF Actual
Primary energy intensity
kWh
/20
09 $
cha
ined
GD
P0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RFActual
Electric intensity
2010–2017 U.S. progress toward Reinventing Fire’s 2050 goalsActuals (USEIA) are not weather-adjusted. Reinventing Fire progression based on constant exponential growth rate.
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Solutions to:
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587%+ 42%in savings经济节约
bigger GDP经济规模
less carbon碳排放减少
RMB21T2010 NPV
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gig
aton
CO
2 pe
r yea
r
USA
EU
China
Other OECD
Other Non-OECD
Worldwide RF
IEA 450 scenario
Reinventing Fire applied worldwide will keep within the 2010–2050 carbon budget for 50% probability of 2Cº
2"
Worldwide annual CO2 emissions under Reinventing Fire scenario
2034: cumulative post-2010 emissions exceed 1.5Cº budget
Assumptions: • CO2 emissions are calculated using Reinventing Fire for U.S., Roadmap 2050 for EU, Reinventing Fire: China for China.
Other OECD is calculated using the Reinventing Fire 2010–2050 trajectory; Other Non-OECD using the Reinventing Fire: China 2010–2050 trajectory.
• CO2 budget is calculated by ETH Zürich from IPCC data and assumptions for non-CO2 emissions to define an energy-related CO2 budget.
• Cumulative CO2 emissions for 2010–2050 under the Reinventing Fire scenario are 1121 Gt by 2050, 79 Gt below the 1200 Gt 2010–2050 carbon budget for 50% probability of ≤2C˚ average temperature change, but 331 Gt above the carbon budget for ≤1.5Cº average temperature change.
Business-as-usual
…and with conservatively assessed natural-systems carbon removal…
Av. t
emp.
rise
(C˚)
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Detecting an early signal of the energy transitionAnnual percent change in global non-carbon share of total final energy consumption, 1975–2016, and primary energy intensity, 1975–2017
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
y = -0.0013x + 2.64 R² = 0.30
y = 0.0054x - 10.89 R² = 0.51
y = 0.0001x - 0.2375 R² = 0.021
y = -0.0025x + 4.94 R² = 0.66
Sources: TFEC (IEA), renewables (BP, except IEA for renewable heat only); synthetic primary energy intensity (BP, World Bank); no adjustments for weather, economic cycles, or other fluctuations
2016 2 C˚ 1.5 Cº
-1.2%
3.4%
6.7%/y median spread for 1.5C˚ (Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 5 Mar 2018)
3.4%/y median spread for 2C˚ (IPCC AR5)
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Global total final commercial energy consumption from non-fossil-fuel sources, 1975–2017 (21% of 2016 total)
0
10
20
30
40
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Nuclear
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Geothermal, biomass, wasteBiofuelsRenewable heat
Exaj
oule
s/y
Sources: TFEC (IEA Energy Balances for renewable heat, BP for all others)
Nuclear flatlined, but renewables more than compensated
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-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1981–90 1991–2000 2001–10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Global energy savings are accelerating like renewablesAnnual changes in global primary energy intensity, 1981–2017p
Source: International Energy Agency (Paris), Energy Efficiency Market Report 2017; white line based on IEA, Energy Efficiency Market Report 2016, p. 18, citing IEA’s WEO 450 Scenario (3.7%/y GDP growth 2013–20, 3.8% to 2030, plus expected decarbonization). Preliminary 2017 data from IEA, “Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017,” 22 Mar 2017, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GECO2017.pdf,
Average change 2011–17p: 2.1%/y
Average change 1981–2010: 1.2%/y
–2.9% US–5.9% China
–1.3% EU
IEA’s 450-ppm CO2 scenario calls for 2.6%/y intensity drop to 2030
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#1 threat to gas: methane “slip” (vents, flares, leaks, other uncombusted)
CH4 emissions ⨉2.5, 60% human, 25% of warming100- vs 20-y CO2 “equivalence” hides the opportunity~78% is lost upstream, of which ~60–80% is intentional
But CH4 lasts only 9±2 y, so cutting just ~10–25 MT/y could rebalance the global CH4 cycle. Why stop there?
Abating even more (the profitable half of O&G industry emis-sions) could profitably displace 160 GTCO2—fastest way toturn down the thermostat, buying more time to decarbonize
Just closing flares and fixing vents in a few thousand placescould do this profitably! What are entrepreneurs waiting for?
www.earthobservatory.nasa.govInfrared image of a tank battery venting methane from engineered pressure relief valves; vents, flares, and leaks combined emit 76 (2015; coulld well be 80+) MT/y of methane or 2–6 GT/y CO2equiv—$18–36b/y lost revenue at $2–4/million BTU
The world’s 19,000 flares emit ≥6 MT/y of unburned methane (the 2–10% that slips by combustion), equivalent over 100 or 20 y to >180 or 600 MT/y of CO2; closing flares and recovering gas often pays back in a few years
Richard Ward, Director, Methane Program, Rocky Mountain Institute, [email protected], 202 570 3279
13 Source: International Energy Agency – World Energy Outlook 2017
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017
ABATEMENT NEEDEDTO BALANCE CH4 CYCLE
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Price > CostValue >
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1900: where’s the first car?
Easter Parades on Fifth Avenue, New York, 13 years apart
1913: where’s the last horse?
Images: L, National Archive, www.archives.gov/research/american-cities/images/american-cities-101.jpg; R, shorpy.com/node/204. Inspiration: Tona Seba’s keynote lecture at AltCar, Santa Monica CA, 28 Oct 2014, http://tonyseba.com/keynote-at-altcar-expo-100-electric-transportation-100-solar-by-2030/
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OR
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Renewables replacing $38b/y kerosene market
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From the Age of Carbon to the Age of Silicon
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www.rmi.org | [email protected] | +1 970 927 3129 R
OCKY MOUNTA
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Profitable Climate Protectionwith Development and Security