1 ices iii montreal 18-21 june 2007 session 4 the statistical measurement of services: recent...
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ICES III Montreal 18-21 June 2007 Session 4
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The statistical measurement of services: recent international achievements
and what next?
William Cave OECD Statistics Directorate
ICES III Montreal 18-21 June 2007 Session 4
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The rise of services?
Ubiquity and diversity Break the problem down Expanding base of information Outsourcing raises the visibility of services Internationalisation aspects ICT progress enables:
– new forms of business organisation– more remote delivery for certain services (offshoring)– further internationalisation of production– new kinds of services
Co-location of customer and supplier remains important Importance of regulatory environment….
ICES III Montreal 18-21 June 2007 Session 4
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Services trade negotiations and agreements
GATS 1995 Regional trade agreements: EU, NAFTA, Andean
Community … 4 modes of supply:
– Cross-border; consumption abroad; commercial presence; presence of persons
Market access Regulatory barriers Doha round
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Other policy issues related to services Competitiveness Sectoral regulation (e.g. health, legal, insurance, telecoms,
gambling..) Need to measure growth/ comparable national accounts Productivity growth Offshoring concerns Services generate employment –which ones? Monetary policy needs short-term indicators How many work permits for foreign service workers? Efficiency of infrastructure services
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Which services have expanded their contribution to national GVA?
Expansion of ICT, professional, scientific, business services, personal, cultural, and financial services in domestic economy
Change in % contribution to GVA by service section OECD countries 1994-2004
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
GH I J K L MNOP
ISIC 3 Section
% Change in %contribution toGVA
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Internationalisation of services FDI
G7 FDI Flows by Type of Service 1995-2003
0
200
400
600
800
1000
$b
n
Inward
Outward
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International Trade in Services: Growth by service?
OECD service exports - annual growth %
2000-2005
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Personal, cult & rec
Travel
Construction
Transportation
Government, n.i.e.
TOTAL SERVICES
Royalties & licenses
Communications
Other business serv
Insurance
Financial
Computer & inf
%
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International Trade in Services: Growth v GDP?
Trade in services as a % of GDP in OECD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
%
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International trade in services v FATS
Service exports v Outward FATS (service sales) in selected countries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
bn
$U
S
US service exports
US outward FATS
Germany serviceexportsGermany FATS out
Australia serviceexportsAustralia FATS out
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Progress in international methodological work 1
1993 SNA Rev 1 (BPM6 revisions)– R&D *– Originals and copies *– Leases and licenses *– Goods for processing and merchanting *– Financial and insurance services *– SNA/ISIC 4 high-level aggregations– Guidelines for non-market output– SPEs
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Progress in international methodological work 2
Classifications ISIC 4 , CPC 2– Increased international comparability – Information sector– ICT friendly– More detail in services– CPC elaborates IP products
International trade in services– BPM6– Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services– Revise EBOPS– FATS + classification– More on modes of supply
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Progress in international methodological work 3
Multinationals and FDI– HEGI 2005 – Eurostat FATS Recommendations Manual 2007– Benchmark Definition 4 planned 2008
Short-term indicators– ISP Compilation manual OECD 2007
Service PPIs– Voorburg Group – SPPI Methodological guide OECD-Eurostat 2006
New definitions of ICT
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What Next?
Implementation of revised and new frameworks– SNA,ISIC,MSITS ….
Research on intellectual property? Price and volume in services work remains a priority Services that are partly private and partly public sector e.g.
Health, education, cultural services etc Internationalisation - trade in services – FATS - modes of
delivery Improving product information Defining national priority areas by sector How to improve use of data sources – Registers, surveys,
admin sources, private sector sources and data linking
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The End
Thank you for your attention
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