1

International Cooperation in Times of Global Crisis

Onur SAZAKIstanbul Policy Center (IPC)

October 18-19, 2012

2

Turkey is strongly in favor of a multilateral framework to ensure that the commitments on a national level are lasting

There are a few international organizations that would assume this role

Turkey views G20 as the most able among the existing international organizations because it is one of the few multilateral bodies that include both least developed countries and emerging economies

The IMF can also serve this purpose given that the fast-growing countries such as BRICs and Turkey will have more representational and decision making powers in the upcoming decade

3

GDP Growth in Constant Prices

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

GDP growth

4

Per Capita GDP (current US$)

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.019

75

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

5

Other Major AccomplishmentsReduction in inflationReduction in public debtFiscal disciplineStrong regulation and supervision of the

banking sectorMajor change in economic institutions under

the influence and guidance of EU anchor independent regulatory authoritiescompetition lawstarted with Custom Union Agreement

6

Structural Change

.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.019

6819

7019

7219

7419

7619

7819

8019

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

10

agriculture industry Services

7

Share of exports in GDP

0

5

10

15

20

25

3019

6019

6219

6419

6619

6819

7019

7219

7419

7619

7819

8019

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

10

8

Composition of exports

9

Sophistication of Exports

10

Economic Complexity IndexAnother indicator of export sophistication as Economic

Complexity Index. As of 2009, in exports, Turkey ranks 43 out of 128.

According to the Index, Turkey exports are more complex than those of the BRICs; Brazil, Russia and India, yet less than China, Thailand, Romania, Bulgaria, etc.

Between 1968-2008 in terms of change in economic complexity Turkey ranks 10 out of 128. This corresponds to an 80 % increase in Turkey’s economic complexity over the last 4 decades

In the last 10 years Turkey recorded 10% increase in its economic complexity

Turkey ranks 15 out of 128 in terms of it’s projected contributions to global GDP growth by 2020

*Source: İl İl Dış Ticaret Potansiyeli Araştırması, Dış Ticaret Müsteşarlığı http://www.ekonomi.gov.tr/upload/7EF56F48-D8D3-8566-452092D48A1F70B1/kitapmakro.pdf*Source: Ricardo Hausmann, César A. Hidalgo, et al. The Atlas of Economic Complexity Mapping Paths to Prosperity. 2011

11

RANK COUNTRY INCOME 2009/$1 JAPAN 39,738 2 GERMANY 40,670 5 AUSTRIA 45,562 6 FINLAND 44,581 7 SINGAPORE 36,537 8 CZECH REPUBLIC 18,13912 KOREA 17,078 19 ISRAEL 26,25620 MEXICO 8,14324 HONG KONG 30,065 25 POLAND 11,273 26 CROATIA 14,222 27 ROMANIA 7,500 29 CHINA 3,744 31 THAILAND 3,893 35 PORTUGAL PRT 21,903 40 BULGARIA 6,423 41 CANADA 39,599 43 TURKEY 8,215 46 RUSSIAN FEDERATION 8,68451 INDIA 1,192 52 BRAZIL 8,230

Economic Complexity Index

12

Average Ubiquity and GDP per capita, selected countries, 2009

13

Import Dependence of Turkey’s Production StructureTurkey has been facing is large current account

deficitsIntermediate goods imports of Turkey have increased

2.5 times more than the increase in manufacturing output between 1994-2008.

Share of traditional industries such as textiles and garments has decreased and the shares of motor vehicles, basic metals and fabricated metal products in manufacturing have increased

Share of imported inputs and raw materials in the total has increased from 56 percent in 2002 to 62 percent in 2007

14

ConclusionSustainable economic growth

Sophisticated export

Current account deficit

Institutionalization, democratization, EU anchor