1. introduction 2. the model and experimental design 3. space-time structure of systematic error 4....
TRANSCRIPT
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Predictability of NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS)1. Introduction 2. The model and experimental design3. Space-time structure of systematic error 4. Space-time structure of forecast error 5. Error growth and predictability (Lorenz curves) 6. Summary and conclusion
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Fig. 1. Systematic error of ensemble mean forecasts of monthly SST with respect to the lead time over the period 1981-2003. From top to bottom, December, March, June, and September forecast cases, respectively.
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Fig. 2. 12-months averaging systematic error of monthly ensemble mean SST over the period 1981-2003 with respect to the lead time.
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Fig. 3. 9-months averaging systematic error of monthly ensemble mean SST over the period 1981-2003 with respect to the 12 calendar months.
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Fig. 4. Same as Fig. 1 except root-mean-square error after removing systematic error.
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Fig. 5. RMS error of ensemble mean forecasts of the monthly mean NINO3, NINO4, NINO3.4 and NINO1.2 SST over the period 1981-2003, as a function of target month and lead month. Nino3 is defined as the spatial mean SST over 5oS-5oN and 170oW-120oW, Nino4 over 5oS-5oN and 90oW-150oW, Nino3.4 over 5oS-5oN and 160oE-150oW, and Nino1.2 over 10oS-equator and 80oW-90oW, respectively.
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0.990.960.940.860.970.860.650.410.900.800.680.720.990.930.830.66Fig. 6. Time series of Nino 3 SST anomalies during 1981-2003 with respect to lead time. January, April, July, October SST anomalies, respectively.
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Fig. 7. 9-months forecast error of Nino3 SST anomalies with initial conditions of all 12 calendar months. Thick solid lines denote ensemble mean and thin dashed lines denote each ensemble member.
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Forecast errorEach memberLorenz curveEach memberDec ICJun ICFig. 8. Forecast error and Lorenz curve of Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 SST anomalies over 1981-2003 period. Upper panels for December initial condition case and lower for June initial conditions, respectively. Thick black line for ensemble mean forecast error and dashed grey lined for each ensemble member, and thick red line for ensemble mean Lorenz curve and dashed orange lined for ensemble members.
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Fig. 9. Forecast error and Lorenz curve of Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2 SST anomalies following to 3 segments of initial conditions over 1981-2003 period for December initial condition. Blue denotes first segment form 9th to 13th of the month, green for second covering 19th to 23th of the month, and red for last set including the second-to-last day of the month, the last day of the month, and 1st, 2nd and 3rd days of the next month. Solid line for forecast error and dashed line for Lorenz curve, respectively.
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Fig. 10. Error growth rate.NINO3.4NINO1.2
Sheet1
lead time
z123456789
ICfile name
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JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctcfs.mon.sst.02
FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovcfs.mon.sst.03
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDeccfs.mon.sst.04
AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJancfs.mon.sst.05
MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebcfs.mon.sst.06
JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarcfs.mon.sst.07
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprcfs.mon.sst.08
AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaycfs.mon.sst.09
SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJuncfs.mon.sst.10
OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulcfs.mon.sst.11
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugcfs.mon.sst.12
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
mon123456789
Dec0.990.820.560.57
Jan0.980.800.650.66
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Apr0.980.860.83-0.10
May0.980.920.93-0.03
Jun0.970.920.94-0.02
Jul0.950.93-0.250.01
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Sep0.990.97-0.260.43
Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48
Nov0.99-0.290.060.39
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Dec0.990.820.560.57
Jan0.980.800.650.66
Feb0.950.880.760.77
Mar0.900.910.840.85
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May0.980.920.93-0.03
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JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprcfs.mon.sst.08
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OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulcfs.mon.sst.11
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugcfs.mon.sst.12
mon123456789
Dec0.990.820.560.57
Jan0.980.800.650.66
Feb0.950.880.760.77
Mar0.900.910.840.85
Apr0.980.860.83-0.10
May0.980.920.93-0.03
Jun0.970.920.94-0.02
Jul0.950.93-0.250.01
Aug0.960.97-0.220.12
Sep0.990.97-0.260.43
Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48
Nov0.99-0.290.060.39
ano
Dec0.990.820.560.57
Jan0.980.800.650.66
Feb0.950.880.760.77
Mar0.900.910.840.85
Apr0.980.860.83-0.10
May0.980.920.93-0.03
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AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaycfs.mon.sst.10
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OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulcfs.mon.sst.12
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
lead time123456789
IC
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep1
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2
FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov3
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec4
AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan5
MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb6
JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar7
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr8
AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay9
SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun10
OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul11
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug12
Sheet4
IC91011121319202122233031123
Dec37363534332726252423161514131215Jan
Jan36353433322625242322151413121114Feb
Feb34333231302423222120161514131215Mar
Mar37363534332726252423161514131215Apr
Apr36353433322625242322161514131215May
May37363534332726252423161514131215Jun
Jun36353433322625242322161514131215Jul
Jul37363534332726252423161514131215Aug
Aug37363534332726252423161514131215Sep
Sep36353433322625242322161514131215Oct
Oct37363534332726252423161514131215Nov
Nov36353433322625242322161514131215DEC
Jan9101112131920212223303112315Jan
Feb9101112131920212223303112314Feb
Mar9101112131920212223272812315Mar
Apr9101112131920212223303112315Apr
May9101112131920212223293012315May
Jun9101112131920212223303112315Jun
Jul9101112131920212223293012315Jul
Aug9101112131920212223303112315Aug
Sep9101112131920212223303112315Sep
Oct9101112131920212223293012315Oct
Nov9101112131920212223303112315Nov
DEC9101112131920212223293012315DEC
NINO12
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
121112121212121212121212m150.3500.3280.3310.5220.3230.3300.5070.3860.4960.5040.4730.327
131213131313131313131313m140.3140.3430.4680.5700.3160.3370.5080.3750.5590.4900.4210.344
141314141414141414141414m130.3470.3640.4220.6140.3250.3880.5040.4070.5120.4160.4580.362
151415151515151515151515m120.3480.3690.4540.5830.3350.3970.4340.3430.5340.4110.4370.389
161516161616161616161616m110.2690.4170.5210.6540.4690.3650.5010.3680.5880.3640.4120.343
232220232223222323222322m100.4270.5270.4420.5470.4860.4180.6380.6040.3480.4410.4430.411
242321242324232424232423m090.4520.4650.3750.8270.6240.4830.5400.4700.4730.4940.4480.413
252422252425242525242524m080.4190.4620.4450.7850.5880.4980.5830.4930.3990.4290.5070.379
262523262526252626252625m070.4030.4860.5280.7120.6450.5780.6600.5890.5130.4540.4250.428
272624272627262727262726m060.4560.6010.5000.8290.6800.4720.6410.5630.5150.5060.4330.372
333230333233323333323332m050.4880.4690.4510.8840.7180.3550.6010.5300.5430.4570.4250.451
343331343334333434333433m040.4850.5250.4240.8730.7690.4740.6350.5390.6940.5340.4940.396
353432353435343535343534m030.4520.4760.5300.8720.7400.5730.6940.5600.6200.6120.4730.470
363533363536353636353635m020.5380.5670.5190.7450.6770.5940.7170.5840.6510.5720.4980.528
373634373637363737363736m010.5560.5700.5110.9640.7770.6220.7130.7630.5170.6060.6280.568
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO34FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
121112121212121212121212m150.1110.1160.1120.1120.1410.1840.2580.3410.3410.1490.1250.199
131213131313131313131313m140.1220.1320.1140.1140.1300.1960.2390.3270.3450.1790.1430.185
141314141414141414141414m130.1370.1370.1190.1190.1430.1770.2330.3180.3500.1480.1380.189
151415151515151515151515m120.1070.1470.1300.1300.1360.1890.2300.3040.3260.1440.1310.186
161516161616161616161616m110.1340.1680.1530.1530.1150.1480.2350.3120.3110.1590.1710.189
232220232223222323222322m100.1810.1570.1750.1750.2020.1980.3100.4270.3480.2090.2100.235
242321242324232424232423m090.1760.1740.1710.1710.2130.2330.2550.4240.2650.1800.2220.214
252422252425242525242524m080.1610.1470.2160.2160.2380.1920.3300.4890.2600.2090.2040.224
262523262526252626252625m070.1980.1800.2290.2290.2070.2320.3200.4270.3060.1960.3030.241
272624272627262727262726m060.2120.1760.1780.1780.1920.4050.3210.4420.3880.1810.2350.221
333230333233323333323332m050.2420.2380.2600.2600.1960.3270.3600.4940.4390.2540.2420.282
343331343334333434333433m040.2160.2420.2160.2160.2350.3610.3730.4440.4950.2930.2560.279
353432353435343535343534m030.2370.2210.2350.2350.1960.3370.4050.5510.4590.3100.2560.286
363533363536353636353635m020.2480.2400.2280.2280.2210.4090.4860.5840.4030.2510.2730.287
373634373637363737363736m010.2620.2040.3080.3080.1680.3400.4790.5520.5600.3670.2980.228
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO3JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
121112121212121212121212m150.1250.1730.2160.2710.1750.2460.3220.2870.2960.1960.1650.227
131213131313131313131313m140.1320.1910.2300.3360.1860.2820.3100.2800.2870.2000.1600.206
141314141414141414141414m130.1600.2110.2050.3560.1490.2580.2850.2530.2960.1630.1740.243
151415151515151515151515m120.1470.2220.2320.3260.1690.2300.2800.2600.3140.1800.1890.178
161516161616161616161616m110.1690.2630.2900.3200.1780.2070.2670.2730.2500.1890.2160.216
232220232223222323222322m100.1650.2840.2990.3980.2650.2970.4060.4630.3570.2300.2550.276
242321242324232424232423m090.1730.2670.2860.4100.2640.2990.2800.5160.3510.2190.3050.217
252422252425242525242524m080.2050.2810.3230.4380.2860.2890.3570.5200.2400.2470.3020.243
262523262526252626252625m070.1970.2830.3830.4140.3100.3790.3860.5270.3050.1650.3770.299
272624272627262727262726m060.2470.2870.3420.3950.3160.4280.3690.5060.3910.2240.3230.244
333230333233323333323332m050.2700.3370.3660.4630.3010.4000.3740.4930.4220.3070.3760.307
343331343334333434333433m040.2560.3350.3890.4570.4350.3940.3830.4440.4430.3070.3660.279
353432353435343535343534m030.2970.3150.3800.5010.3180.4310.4260.5100.4700.3850.3430.283
363533363536353636353635m020.3390.2670.4120.4490.3530.4680.4450.5670.4250.3000.3050.311
373634373637363737363736m010.2750.2890.4560.4890.3290.4040.5420.5310.5000.3990.3570.293
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO4JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
121112121212121212121212m150.1350.1210.1190.1600.1190.1090.1490.1860.1870.1180.1460.113
131213131313131313131313m140.1390.1230.1080.1710.1030.1080.1440.1900.1770.1690.1380.103
141314141414141414141414m130.1370.1280.1120.1410.1100.0950.1550.1890.1810.1320.1560.105
151415151515151515151515m120.1190.1620.1270.1340.1300.1070.1430.1970.1610.1420.1270.107
161516161616161616161616m110.1390.1430.1160.1320.1270.0780.1320.1890.1830.1370.1400.105
232220232223222323222322m100.2370.1700.1380.1930.1810.1200.1940.2390.2320.1760.1430.116
242321242324232424232423m090.2100.1840.1600.1680.2000.1250.2050.2330.2160.1910.1300.178
252422252425242525242524m080.2060.1600.1450.1870.2000.1200.1990.2580.2040.1660.1270.184
262523262526252626252625m070.2040.1970.1760.2060.1510.1220.1920.2290.2160.1980.1860.185
272624272627262727262726m060.2010.1600.1870.2090.1670.2070.1950.2050.2580.1600.1740.157
333230333233323333323332m050.2530.2010.2030.2090.2120.1390.2290.2780.2320.2010.2270.240
343331343334333434333433m040.2460.2330.2040.1660.1880.1830.2830.2880.3040.2730.2370.193
353432353435343535343534m030.2640.2410.1990.1970.1860.1850.2590.3370.2490.2220.2750.232
363533363536353636353635m020.2520.2420.1900.1750.2560.1910.3310.3490.2350.2190.2590.251
373634373637363737363736m010.2410.2260.1900.2190.2310.1930.2720.3590.3060.2420.2280.207
JAN
12
13
14
15
16
23
24
25
26
27
33
34
35
36
37
RMSE of NINO12
DAY
JAN (2)
12
13
14
15
16
23
24
25
26
27
33
34
35
36
37
RMSE of NINO34
DAY
JUL
12
13
14
15
16
22
23
24
25
26
32
33
34
35
36
RMSE of NINIO12
DAY
JUL(2)
12
13
14
15
16
22
23
24
25
26
32
33
34
35
36
RMSE of NINIO34
DAY
Sheet6
0.1350.1210.1190.160.1190.1090.1490.1860.1870.1180.1460.113
0.1390.1230.1080.1710.1030.1080.1440.190.1770.1690.1380.103
0.1370.1280.1120.1410.110.0950.1550.1890.1810.1320.1560.105
0.1190.1620.1270.1340.130.1070.1430.1970.1610.1420.1270.107
0.1390.1430.1160.1320.1270.0780.1320.1890.1830.1370.140.105
0.2370.170.1380.1930.1810.120.1940.2390.2320.1760.1430.116
0.210.1840.160.1680.20.1250.2050.2330.2160.1910.130.178
0.2060.160.1450.1870.20.120.1990.2580.2040.1660.1270.184
0.2040.1970.1760.2060.1510.1220.1920.2290.2160.1980.1860.185
0.2010.160.1870.2090.1670.2070.1950.2050.2580.160.1740.157
0.2530.2010.2030.2090.2120.1390.2290.2780.2320.2010.2270.24
0.2460.2330.2040.1660.1880.1830.2830.2880.3040.2730.2370.193
0.2640.2410.1990.1970.1860.1850.2590.3370.2490.2220.2750.232
0.2520.2420.190.1750.2560.1910.3310.3490.2350.2190.2590.251
0.2410.2260.190.2190.2310.1930.2720.3590.3060.2420.2280.207
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JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctcfs.mon.sst.02
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mon123456789
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Jan0.980.800.650.66
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Apr0.980.860.83-0.10
May0.980.920.93-0.03
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Apr0.980.860.83-0.10
May0.980.920.93-0.03
Jun0.970.920.94-0.02
Jul0.950.93-0.250.01
Aug0.960.97-0.220.12
Sep0.990.97-0.260.43
Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48
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Oct0.99-0.34-0.140.48
Nov0.99-0.290.060.39
ano
Dec0.990.820.560.57
Jan0.980.800.650.66
Feb0.950.880.760.77
Mar0.900.910.840.85
Apr0.980.860.83-0.10
May0.980.920.93-0.03
Jun0.970.920.94-0.02
Jul0.950.93-0.250.01
Aug0.960.97-0.220.12
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Nov0.99-0.290.880.39
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JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprcfs.mon.sst.09
AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaycfs.mon.sst.10
SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJuncfs.mon.sst.11
OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulcfs.mon.sst.12
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug
lead time123456789
IC
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep1
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct2
FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov3
MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec4
AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJan5
MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFeb6
JunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar7
JulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr8
AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMay9
SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun10
OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul11
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug12
Sheet4
IC91011121319202122233031123
Dec37363534332726252423161514131215Jan
Jan36353433322625242322151413121114Feb
Feb34333231302423222120161514131215Mar
Mar37363534332726252423161514131215Apr
Apr36353433322625242322161514131215May
May37363534332726252423161514131215Jun
Jun36353433322625242322161514131215Jul
Jul37363534332726252423161514131215Aug
Aug37363534332726252423161514131215Sep
Sep36353433322625242322161514131215Oct
Oct37363534332726252423161514131215Nov
Nov36353433322625242322161514131215DEC
Jan9101112131920212223303112315Jan
Feb9101112131920212223303112314Feb
Mar9101112131920212223272812315Mar
Apr9101112131920212223303112315Apr
May9101112131920212223293012315May
Jun9101112131920212223303112315Jun
Jul9101112131920212223293012315Jul
Aug9101112131920212223303112315Aug
Sep9101112131920212223303112315Sep
Oct9101112131920212223293012315Oct
Nov9101112131920212223303112315Nov
DEC9101112131920212223293012315DEC
NINO12
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
121112121212121212121212m150.3500.3280.3310.5220.3230.3300.5070.3860.4960.5040.4730.327
131213131313131313131313m140.3140.3430.4680.5700.3160.3370.5080.3750.5590.4900.4210.344
141314141414141414141414m130.3470.3640.4220.6140.3250.3880.5040.4070.5120.4160.4580.362
151415151515151515151515m120.3480.3690.4540.5830.3350.3970.4340.3430.5340.4110.4370.389
161516161616161616161616m110.2690.4170.5210.6540.4690.3650.5010.3680.5880.3640.4120.343
232220232223222323222322m100.4270.5270.4420.5470.4860.4180.6380.6040.3480.4410.4430.411
242321242324232424232423m090.4520.4650.3750.8270.6240.4830.5400.4700.4730.4940.4480.413
252422252425242525242524m080.4190.4620.4450.7850.5880.4980.5830.4930.3990.4290.5070.379
262523262526252626252625m070.4030.4860.5280.7120.6450.5780.6600.5890.5130.4540.4250.428
272624272627262727262726m060.4560.6010.5000.8290.6800.4720.6410.5630.5150.5060.4330.372
333230333233323333323332m050.4880.4690.4510.8840.7180.3550.6010.5300.5430.4570.4250.451
343331343334333434333433m040.4850.5250.4240.8730.7690.4740.6350.5390.6940.5340.4940.396
353432353435343535343534m030.4520.4760.5300.8720.7400.5730.6940.5600.6200.6120.4730.470
363533363536353636353635m020.5380.5670.5190.7450.6770.5940.7170.5840.6510.5720.4980.528
373634373637363737363736m010.5560.5700.5110.9640.7770.6220.7130.7630.5170.6060.6280.568
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO34FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
121112121212121212121212m150.1110.1160.1120.1120.1410.1840.2580.3410.3410.1490.1250.199
131213131313131313131313m140.1220.1320.1140.1140.1300.1960.2390.3270.3450.1790.1430.185
141314141414141414141414m130.1370.1370.1190.1190.1430.1770.2330.3180.3500.1480.1380.189
151415151515151515151515m120.1070.1470.1300.1300.1360.1890.2300.3040.3260.1440.1310.186
161516161616161616161616m110.1340.1680.1530.1530.1150.1480.2350.3120.3110.1590.1710.189
232220232223222323222322m100.1810.1570.1750.1750.2020.1980.3100.4270.3480.2090.2100.235
242321242324232424232423m090.1760.1740.1710.1710.2130.2330.2550.4240.2650.1800.2220.214
252422252425242525242524m080.1610.1470.2160.2160.2380.1920.3300.4890.2600.2090.2040.224
262523262526252626252625m070.1980.1800.2290.2290.2070.2320.3200.4270.3060.1960.3030.241
272624272627262727262726m060.2120.1760.1780.1780.1920.4050.3210.4420.3880.1810.2350.221
333230333233323333323332m050.2420.2380.2600.2600.1960.3270.3600.4940.4390.2540.2420.282
343331343334333434333433m040.2160.2420.2160.2160.2350.3610.3730.4440.4950.2930.2560.279
353432353435343535343534m030.2370.2210.2350.2350.1960.3370.4050.5510.4590.3100.2560.286
363533363536353636353635m020.2480.2400.2280.2280.2210.4090.4860.5840.4030.2510.2730.287
373634373637363737363736m010.2620.2040.3080.3080.1680.3400.4790.5520.5600.3670.2980.228
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO3JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
121112121212121212121212m150.1250.1730.2160.2710.1750.2460.3220.2870.2960.1960.1650.227
131213131313131313131313m140.1320.1910.2300.3360.1860.2820.3100.2800.2870.2000.1600.206
141314141414141414141414m130.1600.2110.2050.3560.1490.2580.2850.2530.2960.1630.1740.243
151415151515151515151515m120.1470.2220.2320.3260.1690.2300.2800.2600.3140.1800.1890.178
161516161616161616161616m110.1690.2630.2900.3200.1780.2070.2670.2730.2500.1890.2160.216
232220232223222323222322m100.1650.2840.2990.3980.2650.2970.4060.4630.3570.2300.2550.276
242321242324232424232423m090.1730.2670.2860.4100.2640.2990.2800.5160.3510.2190.3050.217
252422252425242525242524m080.2050.2810.3230.4380.2860.2890.3570.5200.2400.2470.3020.243
262523262526252626252625m070.1970.2830.3830.4140.3100.3790.3860.5270.3050.1650.3770.299
272624272627262727262726m060.2470.2870.3420.3950.3160.4280.3690.5060.3910.2240.3230.244
333230333233323333323332m050.2700.3370.3660.4630.3010.4000.3740.4930.4220.3070.3760.307
343331343334333434333433m040.2560.3350.3890.4570.4350.3940.3830.4440.4430.3070.3660.279
353432353435343535343534m030.2970.3150.3800.5010.3180.4310.4260.5100.4700.3850.3430.283
363533363536353636353635m020.3390.2670.4120.4490.3530.4680.4450.5670.4250.3000.3050.311
373634373637363737363736m010.2750.2890.4560.4890.3290.4040.5420.5310.5000.3990.3570.293
DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovNINO4JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
121112121212121212121212m150.1350.1210.1190.1600.1190.1090.1490.1860.1870.1180.1460.113
131213131313131313131313m140.1390.1230.1080.1710.1030.1080.1440.1900.1770.1690.1380.103
141314141414141414141414m130.1370.1280.1120.1410.1100.0950.1550.1890.1810.1320.1560.105
151415151515151515151515m120.1190.1620.1270.1340.1300.1070.1430.1970.1610.1420.1270.107
161516161616161616161616m110.1390.1430.1160.1320.1270.0780.1320.1890.1830.1370.1400.105
232220232223222323222322m100.2370.1700.1380.1930.1810.1200.1940.2390.2320.1760.1430.116
242321242324232424232423m090.2100.1840.1600.1680.2000.1250.2050.2330.2160.1910.1300.178
252422252425242525242524m080.2060.1600.1450.1870.2000.1200.1990.2580.2040.1660.1270.184
262523262526252626252625m070.2040.1970.1760.2060.1510.1220.1920.2290.2160.1980.1860.185
272624272627262727262726m060.2010.1600.1870.2090.1670.2070.1950.2050.2580.1600.1740.157
333230333233323333323332m050.2530.2010.2030.2090.2120.1390.2290.2780.2320.2010.2270.240
343331343334333434333433m040.2460.2330.2040.1660.1880.1830.2830.2880.3040.2730.2370.193
353432353435343535343534m030.2640.2410.1990.1970.1860.1850.2590.3370.2490.2220.2750.232
363533363536353636353635m020.2520.2420.1900.1750.2560.1910.3310.3490.2350.2190.2590.251
373634373637363737363736m010.2410.2260.1900.2190.2310.1930.2720.3590.3060.2420.2280.207
JAN
12
13
14
15
16
23
24
25
26
27
33
34
35
36
37
RMSE of NINO12
DAY
JAN (2)
12
13
14
15
16
23
24
25
26
27
33
34
35
36
37
RMSE of NINO34
DAY
JUL
12
13
14
15
16
22
23
24
25
26
32
33
34
35
36
RMSE of NINIO12
DAY
JUL(2)
12
13
14
15
16
22
23
24
25
26
32
33
34
35
36
RMSE of NINIO34
DAY
Sheet6
0.1350.1210.1190.160.1190.1090.1490.1860.1870.1180.1460.113
0.1390.1230.1080.1710.1030.1080.1440.190.1770.1690.1380.103
0.1370.1280.1120.1410.110.0950.1550.1890.1810.1320.1560.105
0.1190.1620.1270.1340.130.1070.1430.1970.1610.1420.1270.107
0.1390.1430.1160.1320.1270.0780.1320.1890.1830.1370.140.105
0.2370.170.1380.1930.1810.120.1940.2390.2320.1760.1430.116
0.210.1840.160.1680.20.1250.2050.2330.2160.1910.130.178
0.2060.160.1450.1870.20.120.1990.2580.2040.1660.1270.184
0.2040.1970.1760.2060.1510.1220.1920.2290.2160.1980.1860.185
0.2010.160.1870.2090.1670.2070.1950.2050.2580.160.1740.157
0.2530.2010.2030.2090.2120.1390.2290.2780.2320.2010.2270.24
0.2460.2330.2040.1660.1880.1830.2830.2880.3040.2730.2370.193
0.2640.2410.1990.1970.1860.1850.2590.3370.2490.2220.2750.232
0.2520.2420.190.1750.2560.1910.3310.3490.2350.2190.2590.251
0.2410.2260.190.2190.2310.1930.2720.3590.3060.2420.2280.207
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Ensemble skill of anomalous monthly NINO indices
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Forecast error and Lorenz curves: Dec IC forecast, anomalous SST anomalies