The entire peace process can be considered to be at risk as the new Las Farc group are growing at an outstanding speed. It’s normal that not all combatants of the original Las Farc guerrilla group surrendered to the peace deal, it happens in many countries around the world. Not all members agree, some stay and some leave.

The clutter is that the government has been so busy with those who joined society again that it forgot about those who stayed and have quietly become a powerful new guerrilla with a strong economic foundation based on drug trafficking (cocaine, marijuana and heroine) and criminal activities(illegal mining, extortion and kidnapping).

Apart from the new Las Farc, there are also remains of other dissident groupsalive and growing: Urabenos or Clan del Golfo (2000 members) who used to be members of the AUC. Dissident groups in Colombia are almost impossible to eliminate because of their strong economic activities.

1. INTRODUCTION: ARE LAS FARC UNCONQUERABLE?

CaquetáArauca

meta Guaviare

Vichada

Amazonas

Putumayo Vaupés

Guainía

Criminal activities

Leaders

Drug trafficking

illegal mining

Miguel botachesantillana

Néstor Gregoriovera

extortion

There are several major strengths that the New Las Farc possess which makes them stronger and with ample possibilities of resurrection:

•Low faith in the peace process and its guarantees for ex combatants.

•Ivan Marquez and Santrich back in the picture as they deserted the peace process.

•More lucrative criminal economies that sustain the new Las Farc.

•3000 members in 2019 (this number tends to grow fast).

•Poor political results during the last elections.

•Weak government actions against criminal activities of the new las Farc.

•Almost no support from the US government to fight the new guerrilla.

•Venezuela as the perfect shelter for this dissident group.

Source: Insightcrime.org

Las Farc give up their weapons to The United Nations (7000 weapons).

Edgar Mesias Salgado makes distance from the peace process.

Several other combatants of Las Farc, return to war: Julian Chollo, Gener Garcia and Luis Alfonso Lizcano.

The peace agreement accords begin to take place.

Miguel Diaz San Martin abandons the peace process, controlling the region of Amazonas in Colombia, while the peace agreement is signed between Las Farcand the government.

Alias Ivan Mordisco (Nestor Gregorio Vera) is the first ex combatant to become a dissident in the Guaviare region of Colombia.

JUNE 2017

SEPTEMBER 2017

DECEMBER 2016

Hernan Dario Velasquez leaves the Caqueta reincorporation territory.

OCTOBER 2017

NOVEMBER 2016

2. THE METAMORPHOSIS

JUNE 2016

Walter Arizala abandons the agreement and becomes a visible leader of the new Las Farc.

2017

Since 2016(Peace Process starts) to 2019 several Farc leaders have declared themselves dissidents of the peace treaty and have gone back to the mountains, forming a group of protagonists of the evolution of the new Las Farc. This has given them the chance to evolve and start to ressurect and re occupy Colombia through different fronts managed by powerfull leaders.

President Duque announces as a victory the death of el Guacho.

Rodrigo Cadete is killed.

Ivan Duque is elected President of Colombia.

Luciano Marin and Henry Castellanos disappear from public view.

Dissidents begin to become visible.

Jesus Santrich is captured

DECEMBER 2018

FEBRUARY 2019

ROMANA demands that the government complies with the implementation process of the peace agreement for all ex combatants.

SEPTEMBER 2018

AUGUST 2018

Ivan Marquez and Santrich publicly announce their return to arms.

AUGUST 2019

JUNE 2018

APRIL 2018

Source: cisac.fsi.stanford.edu

1. Magdalena2. Sucre3. Cesar4. cordoba5. Bolivar6. Norte de santander7. Choco8. Antioquia9. santander10. Arauca11. Risaralda12. caldas 13. C/marca14. Boyaca15. Casanare16. vichada17. valle del cauca18. Quindio19. tolima20. meta21. Guania22. cauca23. Huila24. Guaviare25. nariño

1.

2.

3.

4.5.

6.

7.8.

9.

10.

11.

25.26.

27.

28.

29.

23. 24.

19.

18.

20.21.

14.15.

16.12. 13.

explosives

Attacks on sicial andpolitical leaders:

Conflicts between iliegalarmed groups

captures and deathsof new las farc

homicides

kidnappings

conflicts with publicsecurity forces

camps

extorsions

17.

22.

26. putumayo27.caqueta28. vaupes29. amazonas

Source: Insightcrime.org

2018-2019

An important aspect that contributed to the metamorphosis of the new Las Farc is that with the arrival of President Duque, uncertainty increased among dissidents. Rumors that the peace treaty was going to be modified started to circulate, and so many other Farc commanders started to leave the peace process.

Today the new Las Farc is present in 18 of 32 departments of Colombia with 3200 combatants and some important presence in Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. President Duque’s government has received several crucial alerts that indicate that the growth of Las Farc dissidents is not a rumor, and a very clear one was on 2019 when Jesus Santrich and Ivan Marquez disappeared to join the new Las Farc.

What makes this new guerrilla a powerful and difficult one to eliminate are the illegal resources with which it sustains itself: rise of illegal mining, Colombia’s cocaine production higher than ever and extortion among others. It’s all there on a silver plate ready to be used by this criminals to profit themselves with. (It’s not a myth that the original Farc used to be one of the most lucrative criminal groups in Latin America with an annual income of more than $200 million a year).

The constantly increasing money flow of the new Las Farc clearly shows that their main activity now is to make money through criminal and illegal economic activities that generate violence in rural areas and affect the environment. They are not anymore the political, ideological movement they used to be.

Its only about the money now.

3. CRIMINAL AGENDA

4,636.41 ha

•18th front

1. Córdoba33,597.87 ha

•33th front

2. Norte de santander7.44 ha

•10th front•1st Front

5. Arauca

549.97 ha

•1st front•16th front

8. Vichada

41.22 ha

•1st front•Acacio medina front

12. Guainia

4,339.96 ha

•1st front•7th front

11. guaviare

121.65 ha

•1st front

15. Amazonas

2,944.59 ha

•1st front•7th front

7. Meta

13,403.09 ha

•36th front•18th front

4. Antioquia

11,761.72 ha

•1st front•62nd front

10. Caqueta

1,279.56 ha

•Jaime martinezcolumn•United forcesof the pacific

6. valle del cauca

26,407.56 ha

•48TH front•1ST front

14. PutumYO

2,155.13 ha

•30th front -United forcesof the pacific

3. choco

17,117.07 ha

•Jaime martinezcolumn•Dagobesrtoramos Column•EstivenGonzález front•30th front -United forcesof the pacific

9. Cauca

41,903.31 ha

•oliversinisterrafront•United guerrillasof the pacific

13. Nariño

1.2.

3.5.4.

6. 7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

cocaine by department

cocaine crops (less density)

cocaine crops (greater density)

illegal mining

Source: Insightcrime.org

Today, cocaine trafficking is the most lucrative economy for the new Las Farc due to the strategic geographical location of the different fronts across the country, were all the hectares of cocaine, illegal mining and coca crops exist in Colombia.

Presence of the group in Colombian borders is also crucial for the whole distribution operation to flow perfectly: Venezuela, Panama, Ecuador, Peru and Brazil.

The different fronts also take care of cocaine processing and distribution of the drug to Ecuador, Central America and The US. It could be said that as such experts in coca crops, cocaine processing and distribution the new Las Farc is more a mafia group than one with a social ideology.

DRUG TRAFFICKING

COCAINE

1. Magdalena2. Sucre3. Cesar4. cordoba5. Bolivar6. Norte de santander7. Choco8. Antioquia9. santander10. Arauca11. Risaralda12. caldas

1.

2.

3.

4.5.

6.

7.

8.9.

10.

11.

25.

26.27.

28.

29.

23. 24.

19.

18.

20.21.

14.15.

16.12. 13.

Cocaine cropsFarc

17.

22.

13. C/marca14. Boyaca15. Casanare16. vichada17. valle del cauca18. Quindio19. tolima20. meta21. Guania22. cauca

23. Huila24. Guaviare25. nariño26. putumayo27.caqueta

28. vaupes29. amazonas

Source: Justice Ministryof Colombia

A new profit source for the new Las Farc is the Crippy Marijuana and the biggest cultivation area is in El Cauca (worth $50 million a year abroad). This cultivation area is controlled by one of the group’s fronts. Most of this marijuana is taken to Brazil through the rivers were it is sold at increased prices.

This very highly profitable business, now finances the new Las Farc, as prices abroad for this product are much more higher than in Colombia.

MARIJUANA

The new group can manage an annual income of aprox $600 million around illegal mining. This became a lucrative idea due to the global boom of the gold price since 2010. The way the new Las Farc gain money, is by charging a tax for every piece of gold that is extracted from their territory. Another aspect that makes this business a brilliant idea is that it’s very easy to legalize. Illegal mining in Colombia takes place in rural areas with rivers (Antioquia, Tumaco, Nariño and Cauca departments), highly affecting the environment and natural resources.

The region of Amazonas is the most affected by this criminal activity through the Yapacama mines were habitants are forced to work.

ILLEGAL MINNING

This was perhaps the most traditional economic activity of Las Farc, prior to the peace treaty and still is. It works as a vaccine or war tax that they charge in the regions of Colombia they control. The new Las Farc are charging much more than before demobilization.

The war tax is charged for different movements from the habitants or land owners: transportation of merchandise through the rivers, a % of the value of public work contracts, farmers are also charged per head cattle they have in territories controlled by the new Las Farc.

Kidnapping is also an old and classic way of extortion implemented by Las Farc and still present (though now a days very rare).

EXTORTION

Its common knowledge that Las Farc and now the new Las Farc share a strong relationship with Venezuela. Before with President Chavez and now with Maduro. The guerrilla group had to move most of its logistics and funds to Venezuela were they now have the chance to distribute their business internationally. Today there is an important presence of the new Las Farc in Venezuela with 5 fronts in 8 estates and growing fast.

4. VENEZUELA’S PART IN THE STORY

Falcón

Lara

Guárico Anzoátegui

Bolívar(Cedeño)

Monagas

sucreMirada

Barinas

Portuguesa

Trujillo

1. Zulia (Jesús Enrique Lossada Mara and Jesús Maria Semprún)

2. Táchira (Bolívar, Ureña, Junin, Capacho Viejo and Rafael Urdaneta)

3. Apure (Páes, Rómulo Hallegos, Pedro Camejo and San Fernando)

4. Amazonas (Maroa, Atabapo, Alto Prinoco, Río Negro, Manaplareand Autana)

Yaracuy

CaraboboCojedesAragua

..........

Vargas

Criminal economicActivities

Drug trafficking

illegal mining

extortion

contraband

Training Camps

AcacioMedina font

AcacioMedina font

1st front 10th front

33rd front

Mérida

1.

Criminalactors

2.

3.

4.

Ex-farc mafia Ex-farc frontLeadersJhon 40

AcacioMedina font

Jhon Micilias

33rd front

Source: Insightcrime.org

VENEZUELA

Its also known that when the Farc demobilization started, one of the biggest fronts present in Venezuela, decided to stay and not join the peace process and it was due to the profitable economic business they had running. Things were and still are going well.

Today ELN and the new Las Farc relationship is not a clear one, but they do share profits from all illicit economic activities between Colombia and Venezuela and this relationship can coexist because of a nonaggression pact.

The most positive scenario for all is that it is possible this new Las Farc willdisappear and there are several important reasons to believe so:

•After the peace process and demobilization started, the criminal group suffered an important decrease in number and forces as the government guarantees for those who did quit violence and crime will assure there will be no more dissidents from the peace process.

•The government has decided to attack the main economic sources of the new Las Farc.

•If President Maduro is finally removed from power, Colombia and Venezuela can join forces to fight and remove the group form their sanctuary Venezuela.

•Many leaders of the different fronts are fighting for power and territory, this could end up in their own dissolution.

4. WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE FUTURE?

•Apart from Venezuela, Panama, Brazil, Ecuador and Peru are working together against the presence of the New Las Farc in their borders and against international organized crime.

On the other hand there are also big possibilities that the new Las Farc survives and gets bigger and stronger:

•Combatants and rural communities don’t believe in the peace process.

•The security policy of the actual government is not offering real solutions as the security situation of the country is getting worse.

•The today new Las Farc continues to grow as more combatants abandon the peace process, from 3000 members to 4000 in 2020 and also with alliances with other organized crime groups to fight the government and security forces.

•Maduro seems to never leave the presidency of Venezuela and not only offers the new Las Farc shelter but also weapons (same used by the military of this country) and openly welcomed Santrich and Ivan Marquez.

•There is no support from the US government towards the fight against the new Las Farc and their criminal economic activities and the same is happening from Latin American neighbors who have their hands full with their own social and political crisis. So Duque is all alone in this one, and so far none of his ideas are working.

SO, WHICH ONE IS IT?

This document is based on information of a Insightcrime Investigation in 2019 (Insightcrime.org/investigations/ex-farc-mafia)