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Republic of Kenya

Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources

Kenya’s Third Medium Term Plan (MTP III) A Framework for Mainstreaming Climate Change

Draft for Discussion

May 2017

Developed with the support of the StARCK+ Climate Change Technical Assistance

to the Government of Kenya, and the

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The development of this climate change mainstreaming framework was funded by UK Aid from the Government of the United Kingdom through the Technical Assistance to the Government of Kenya Component of the Strengthening Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change in Kenya Plus (StARCK+) Programme; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the UK Government. For further information contact the DAI-IISD Technical Team who provided expert input to the analysis via the consulting consortium of Development Alternatives Incorporated (DAI), Matrix Development Consultants and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) at info@ficcf.com.

Technical Assistance to the Government of Kenya

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Kenya’s Third Medium Term Plan (MTP III) Mainstreaming Climate Change: A Framework

The Climate Change Act, 2016 adopts a climate change mainstreaming approach that includes integration of climate change considerations into development planning, budgeting and implementation. A Climate Change Thematic Working Group (CCTWG) has been created to provide input to Kenya’s Third Medium Term Plan (MTP III) from two perspectives: 1) developing a section on climate change, and 2) mainstreaming climate into relevant sectors. This framework provides a practical approach for mainstreaming climate change, including a quick-scan questionnaire to identify potential areas for intervention. Mainstreaming climate change The Climate Change Act (section 2) defines mainstreaming as “the integration of climate change actions into decision making and implementation of functions by the sector ministries, state corporations and county governments.” Ideally, mainstreaming considers sectoral/development and climate issues as one approach, rather than two separate policy trajectories. This means that climate change considerations are taken up and integrated in sector plans, rather than developed separately in climate change plans for the sector. Mainstreaming means that climate change priorities identified in the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) and National Adaptation Plan (NAP) are integrated into MTP III sector plans and priorities.

Not all sectors are (equally) interlinked with climate change. The starting point for mainstreaming would be those sectors with the strongest links – either because the sector is vulnerable to the impacts of climate, or adjustments to actions can increase adaptive capacity or greenhouse gas emission reductions. The NCCAP identified the most relevant sectors for low-carbon climate resilient development in Kenya. Key sectors for mainstreaming described in the table below.

Climate Benefit

NCCAP Definition Key Sectors for Mainstreaming

Adaptation Reducing vulnerability to avoid or cushion the impacts of climate change, and enable people to response to climate risks by moving toward a climate-resilient society.

• Agriculture (including livestock) • Water (including irrigation which

is cross-cutting with agriculture) • Disaster risk reduction

Mitigation Taking actions, where possible, to encourage greenhouse gas emissions that are lower than business-as-usual practice; and to reduce the cause of human emissions by moving toward a resource efficient economy that is as low carbon as possible.

• Forestry (actions also have strong adaptation benefits)

• Energy • Transport

Mainstreaming means that climate change considerations impact on development planning choices. For example, the Government may decide to:

• Construct tarmac roads using run-off water collection technology – adaptation and development benefits

• Increase renewable energy production and not pursue coal-fired electricity generation – mitigation and development benefits.

• Promote agro-forestry – adaptation, mitigation and development benefits.

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Climate Change Mainstreaming: Quick scan questionnaire A four-step approach to mainstreaming has been developed, drawing on a framework developed by the OECD:

1. Identify climate change considerations related to the MTP III planning context using the questionnaires below.

2. Evaluate the need for modifying the plan, programme or project to better mainstream climate change.

3. Identify and select options to modify the plan, programme or project to integrate adaptation and/or mitigation measures. For example,

a. Can the action be adjusted to reduce vulnerability to current and expected climate change? What modifications are needed to improve the adaptation outcomes? What is the additional cost?

b. Can the action be adjusted reduced greenhouse gas emissions? What modifications are needed to improve the mitigation outcomes? What is the additional cost?

4. Identify indicators to evaluate the success of the adaptation and/or mitigation actions.

The following questionnaires help identify the most relevant sectors for mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation considerations, and key considerations for mainstreaming. The questionnaire is aimed at policy and planning officials who have limited expertise in the topic of climate change. A “Yes” answer signals that important adaptation and/or mitigation considerations may exist that require assessment by experts to mainstream climate change in plans and programmes. If all questions are answered “no”, climate change mainstreaming is not required and planning can proceed ‘as usual’. Adaptation

Adaptation Mainstreaming Identification of MTP II plans and/or actions that may be impacted by climate change

Yes No

Are MTP interventions situated in one of following geographic regions: arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), coastal zones; floodplains; areas affected by typhoons or heavy rainfall; mountain regions?

Does the impact of the MTP II plan or project depend on important climate parameters, such as temperature, precipitation or wind?

Does the project provide opportunities to significantly increase the adaptive capacity of the target group(s) or ecosystem(s)?

Are MTP III interventions planned in one of the following sectors: agriculture (including livestock), disaster risk reduction, forestry, health, infrastructure (energy, transport, housing, urban development), natural resource management and biodiversity, water,

If a sector action is potentially impacted by climate change, indicated by a “yes” answer in the above table, climate change experts should be engaged to determine if plans can be adjusted to better address climate change. Example of adaptation considerations are set out in the table below.

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Sector Adaptation Considerations Agriculture (including livestock)

Increasing or maintaining food production in a changing climate can be challenging. - What MTPIII interventions can be adjusted to maintain or increase food

production in a changing climate? - Are additional actions needed in the MTP to ensure the long-term sustainability

of actions in the face of a changing climate?

Disaster Risk Reduction

Climate change is a driving force that increases the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events – droughts and floods. - How can MTP III actions be adjusted to better equip communities to deal with

a greater frequency of drought? - How can interventions be adjusted to focus on preparedness, rather than

responsive actions?

Forestry Climate change may alter forest species and growth; removal of forests increases erosion and flooding. - How can MTP III actions ensure that forests contribute important resilience

benefits such as carbon sequestration and prevention of soil erosion?

Health Climate change is expected to change (likely increase) the incidence of several illnesses and diseases. Changes in water and air quality exacerbated by climate change are expected to impact the spread of diseases such as cholera and respiratory illness. - What MTPII actions are needed to address the change in incidence of malaria

and dengue fever transmitted by mosquitos? - What MTPIII actions are be added or adjusted to reduce the spread of disease

impacted by water and air quality??

Infrastructure – including transport, power grids, water supply, buildings

Many infrastructure investments are designed to last for decades, but the long-term investment can be negatively impacted by a changing climate (e.g., port facilities impacted by sea level rise and storm surges, transport infrastructure impacted by heavy rains and flooding). - Have MTPIII infrastructure plans and projects been assessed for resilience to

current risks and future climate change? - What is needed to upgrade MTP III infrastructure interventions to address

climate risks and protect the investment from future climate change?

Natural Resource Management and Biodiversity

Climate change is expected to lead to biodiversity loss and a reduced ability to deliver ecosystem services. - Can MTPIII plans and initiatives be modified to protect against biodiversity loss

– e.g., indigenous tree planting, maintenance of wildlife corridors, increase in protected area?

Water Management

Climate change is expected to lead to major change in water availability, in an environment of water scarcity. - Have irrigation schemes assessed future water availability? - What improvements can be made to ensure a secure water supply (e.g.,

rainwater collection, tarmac road construction with rainwater runoff collection, promotion of water efficient technologies – toilets, taps, etc.)?

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Mitigation

Mitigation Mainstreaming

Identification of MTP II plans and/or actions that could be adjusted to address mitigation by reducing GHG emission or increasing sinks

Yes No

Are MTP III interventions planned in one of the following mitigation sectors: agriculture (including livestock), energy, forestry, industry, transport and waste?

Can MTP III interventions in these sectors consider incorporating the priority mitigation actions identified in Kenya’s NCCAP and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sector analysis (set out below by sector)?

Agriculture

Can the MTP III promote or adjust projects to consider NCCAP priority mitigation actions?

- Agroforestry - Sustainable land management - Limiting use of fire in range and grassland management - Improved dairy herd management

Can agriculture interventions in the MTP III be adjusted to increase GHG emission reductions or sinks (e.g., promotion of agroforestry, promotion of sustainable land management)?

Can livestock interventions in the MTP III be adjusted to encourage GHG emission reductions (e.g., promotion of smaller, healthier herds)?

Energy Can the MTP III promote or adjust projects to consider NCCAP priority mitigation actions?

Electricity Generation - Geothermal generation expansion - Wind generation expansion - Clean coal (ultra-supercritical technology) - Hydro generation expansion - Solar PV – distributed grid connected

Energy Demand - Improved cookstoves (charcoal/wood and liquefied propane gas (LPG) - Solar lighting - Energy efficient light bulbs - Energy efficient appliances - Solar water heaters - Co-generation in agriculture

Are MTP III interventions/projects being planned that will use a large amount of fuel for their construction or operation (petrol, diesel, kerosene, charcoal, fuelwood, other biomass)? Can these plans be adjusted to require less fuel?

Does the MTP III encourage a clean electricity generation mix with an emphasis on renewables (geothermal, solar, wind, hydro, biomass), as opposed to fossil fuels (diesel, coal)? Can these plans be adjusted to ensure a greater emphasis on renewables?

Are MTP III projects/interventions being planned that increase the efficiency of energy use? Could energy efficiency be included in MTP III

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project plans (e.g., energy efficiency modifications to government buildings)?

Forestry Can the MTP III promote or adjust projects to consider NCCAP priority mitigation actions?

- Rehabilitation of forests on degraded lands - Reforestation of degraded forests - Measure to prevent deforestation and forest degradation

Are MTP interventions/projects being planned that will affect forest or biomass cover, either by reforestation, rehabilitation of forests and grasslands, or deforestation (e.g., by increases in land designated agricultural practices)? Can these interventions be adjusted to improve climate change-related outcomes?

Industry Can the MTP III promote or adjust projects to consider NCCAP priority mitigation actions?

- Improved charcoal production systems (improved kilns) - Energy efficiency in the cement industry - Industrial Energy efficiency (excluding industry)

Can forestry interventions in the MTPIII be designed in a manner that promotes sustainable charcoal production (e.g., adjustments to forestry management interventions)?

Transport Can the MTP III promote or adjust projects to consider NCCAP priority mitigation actions?

- Mass rapid transit system for Nairobi (including bus rapid transit and light rail transit)

- Improved passenger vehicle stock efficiency - Improved heavy-duty vehicle stock efficiency - Shift of freight from road to rail - Bioethanol

Can electric rail be considered, rather than diesel?

Are there interventions that can cost effectively improve vehicle stock efficiency?

Waste Can the MTP III promote or adjust projects to consider NCCAP priority mitigation actions?

- Landfill methane capture

Can landfill projects be designed in such as manner to enable landfill gas collection at a later point in time?

Can waste management systems planned in the MTP III focus on reuse and recycling?