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MDMP-M Step 1:Mission Analysis

13 June 2014

Reference: MNF SOP Version 2.9

USPACOM Multinational Planning Augmentation USPACOM Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT) Team (MPAT)

and Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell and Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC)(DJTFAC)

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• Purpose:– To describe how Mission Analysis fits into the

Military Decision-Making Process in a multinational context

• Applicability– Range of Military Operations– Interchangeable with all types of country/service-

specific military planning processes (JMAP, JOPP, MCPP, MDMP)

• Reference– Multinational Force Standing Operating Procedures

(MNF SOP), Version 2.9

Overview

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• Gain knowledge of the Starting Conditions, the Process, and Results of the Mission Analysis step

• Increased understanding of the sub-

steps of the Mission Analysis step

• Increased confidence in how to apply MDMP-M during TE-25, future exercises, and real-world operations

Objectives

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• Formal Presentation• Interactive approach• Questions and comments are

encouraged

• Evaluation:– We will utilize MDMP-M as the MNF

Planning Process for most groups during TE-25

Method

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MDMP-M Steps

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Mission Analysis

• Starting Conditions– Initial Commander’s Appreciation and Operational

Design has been completed– OIPE summary/brief published– Warning Order #1 has been issued

• Results– Refined OIPE– Staff Estimates– CCIRs– Mission Statement– Revised Commander’s Intent– Commander’s Guidance for COA Development– Warning Order #2 is issued

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Mission Analysis Steps

1. Analyze HHQ Mission and Intent2. Determine Known Facts, Current Status, and Conditions3. Develop Assumptions4. Determine Operational Limitations5. Determine COGs, Decisive Points & Critical Factors6. Identify Operational-level Tasks7. Conduct Initial MNF Force Structure

8. Conduct Initial Risk Assessment9. Determine Military End State , Military Objectives, and

Supporting Effects (SE)10. Develop the Mission Statement and refine the

Commander’s Intent11. Determine initial CCIRs (FFIRs, PIRs, EEFIs) 12. Develop and conduct a Mission Analysis Brief13. Review/Refine Commander’s Appreciation & Operational

Design14. Publish Commander’s Planning Guidance for COA

Development and Issue WARNORD #2

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• The Commander and Staff are all involved in understanding where the MNF fits into the larger national/strategic framework of the operation

• Goal: Understand HHQ’s mission and guidance (WHY)

– Examples: Support to National Plans, Termination criteria, limitations, National caveats

• Goal: Understand CTF’s role in HHQ’s intent and concept of operations

– Military End State, effects, tasks

– Assigned area of operations, assets

– Operational timeline

• Goal: Understand HHQ’s guidance/plan for strategic communicationsNeed clarification? Ask the HHQ’s staff!

Step 1: Analyze HHQ Mission and Intent

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• A Fact is a statement of information known to be true

• Status and Conditions represent the Commander’s assessment of the situation and updated OIPE

• These elements establish the factual framework for the remainder of Mission Analysis Sub-Steps– Includes timing of operation– Timeline for planning

• All members of the CPG must review higher orders, intelligence, Strategic Guidance, and other sources of reference to provide accurate inputs to this Sub-Step

• Development of Staff Estimates continues

Step 2: Determine Known Facts, Current Status, and Conditions

MNF Staff should provide any new facts as they emerge to planners

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If an assumption is false, the plan could be invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should

not be an assumption

Step 3: Develop Assumptions

• Assumptions replace missing or unknown facts

• To be valid, an assumption must be logical, realistic, and essential to planning

• Coordinate assumptions with NCEs and civilian agencies if assumptions involve those partners

• Assumptions should drive staff queries (Requests For Information, RFIs) to convert them into facts

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• Good:– Phase I will be declared at strategic warning– CTF will operate under UN mandate– Coalition forces will operate under parallel C2 structure

• Marginal:– Friendly forces will operate in a C4I limited environment– Expect no use of bases in Country X

• Poor:– Demonstrated resolve and readiness are decisive factors in

Red’s decision-making– Kinetic attacks may be proposed– CTF will not allow third party countries to interfere with sea,

air, or space lanes of communication to allies or warfighting commands

*Note: Assumptions should be 1) worded as facts and 2) do not involve

simple answers from members of the CPG

Step 3: Assumption Examples

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Disseminate early and revise as often as required

• Operational Limitations are things that limit the Commander’s ability to act

• Constraint – Something that must be done– Dictates an action– Example: Must begin operations at a particular time

• Restraint – Something that must not be done– Restricts freedom of action– Example: Must not operate in territorial air/sea space.

• A Commander may include constraints and restraints in the initial assessment, but they are most often derived from higher authorities

Step 4: Develop Operational Limitations

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• Center of Gravity (COG)– defined as the source of power that provides moral

or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act – Made up of Critical Factors (Capabilities,

Requirements, and Vulnerabilities)

• COGs may change during a campaign• COG Analysis is a two-part, complementary

process involving the C-2 (Intelligence) and the CPG

Step 5: Determine COGs, Critical Factors and Decisive Points

COG Analysis looks at both friendly forces and the threat or adversary forces

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Step 5 (continued): Critical Factors

• Critical capabilities– Crucial enablers for a COG to function– Capabilities may be actions or properties

essential to the adversary’s or threat’s end-state goal

• Critical requirements – Conditions, resources, or means– Elements that operationalize a critical capability

• Critical vulnerabilities – One or more of the COG’s critical requirements

that, if deficient or eroded by direct or indirect attack, will undermine a critical capability

– A critical vulnerability may become a decisive point

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Step 5: COG Analysis

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Step 5: COG Tool

Center of Gravity(COG)

Definition: The source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act.

Three Critical Factors make up a COG

Critical Capabilities (CCs)

CriticalRequirements (CRs)

Critical Vulnerabilities (CVs)

What does it do thatmakes it a COG ?

What essential conditions or resourcesare needed for the COG to function ?

What requirements or components arevulnerable toexternal influence ?

Attack / Dimish / Weaken Threat COG – CRs & CVs

Protect / Improve / Build uponFriendly COG CRs / Reduce CVs

Using COGTool

> Points of Influence

> DecisivePoints

A Decisive Point is a geographic place, specific key event, critical factor, or function that, when acted upon, allows a Commander to gain a marked advantage (or influence) over an adversary or contributes materially to achieving success.

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• Tasks direct friendly action by individuals or organizations. They must be:– Clearly defined– Measurable

• 3 Types of Tasks– Specified = assigned by HHQ/Strategic Commander– Implied = tasks necessary for accomplishment of

specified tasks or mission– Essential = mission critical

Step 6: Identify Operational-level Tasks

Essential Tasks are listed in the Mission Statement

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• Review capabilities provided by HHQ for planning• Locations and availability• Reserves and timing• Transportation

• Determine broad force structure• Tie forces to tasks• Command relationships• Required components• Component LNOs / planners

• Identify capability shortfalls

More specific force requirements will be determined after COA Development &

COA Analysis

Step 7: Initial Force Structure Analysis

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Step 7: Task Analysis & Assignment

Specified (1) Conduct needs assessment(2) Deploy forces(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation

Implied (1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs(2) Provide force protection

Essential (1) Deploy forces(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation(3) Provide force protectionTASK CFLCC

ARFORCFMCC

NAVFORCFACCAFFOR

MARFOR

Coordinate w/ NGOs X

Port security X

Provide security for camps X

Provide temporary shelter X

Provide ground transport X X

Distribute food & water X

Provide air traffic control X X

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Step 8: Initial Risk Assessment

• Risk assessment involves the balance between:• Protecting the force• Protecting the mission

• Take into account potential adverse impacts, and the probability and severity of those impacts

• Identify potential mitigating or minimizing methods

• Identify Commanders’ (MNF and HHQ) tolerance for risk

• Incorporate staff assessments of situation and environment

• Understand the role of time in incurring risk

Determine whether limitations, assigned tasks or assumptions create risk that has not been

previously identified or accepted

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• A systematic review to determine the Military End State through the identification of Military Objectives and the Supporting Effects

• Military End State = The set of required conditions that defines achievement of the military objectives. Mission termination

• Military Objectives = clear military goals to be achieved in support of the operation

• Supporting Effects = The conditions, which if achieved, support the attainment of the operational Military Objectives

• Steps– Review conditions that will signal that the MNF is no longer needed– Identify Military Objectives that support attainment of these

conditions– Identify and quantify the Supporting Effects that attain these

objectives

Step 9: Determine Military End State, Military Objectives & Supporting

Effects

Which objectives define success?Which effects achieve these objectives?

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Supporting Effects Objectives

Government of Red (GOR) essential functions and services are restored

1,2,3,4

Government of Red (GOR) does not employ Weapons of Mass Destruction

1,5

Government of Red (GOR) restores law and order in its Southern Province

1,2,3,4,5

Regional countries provide law enforcement assistance in Country Red

1,2,5

United Nations provides peacekeeping forces in Country Red

1,2,5

Step 9: Objectives and Supporting Effects

Objective 1

US nationals, facilities and interests in Country Red are protected

Objective 2

Stable and secure environment established

Objective 3

Pre-crisis living conditions in AOR restored

Objective 4

Pre-crisis AOR infrastructure restored

Objective 5

Red ties with state sponsors of terrorism severed

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CTF-A deploys immediately to JOA Blue to deter Red forces from attacking Country Gray. CTF-A defends Country Gray and Country Green from Red attack beginning D-Day, H-Hour; defeats and ejects Red forces; degrades or eliminates terrorist activities originating in Country Red; and provides post-conflict support to stabilization and reconstruction operations in Red, Gray, and Green as directed in order to protect the sovereignty of Gray and Green and restore stability in the region. On order, CTF-A secures Country Red to enable installation of new government and military leaders.

Step 10: Develop the Mission Statement

Who, What, When, Where and Why

Example of a “Restated Mission”

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Step 10: Commander’s Intent, Success Criteria

Restated Mission and Commander’s Intent permit planners to determine

mission success criteria

• Commander’s Intent is a narrative of purpose, method and end state– It reflects the MNF Commander’s personal style of

communication– Reiterates OIPE, problem framework and

Operational Design and incorporates preceding mission analysis steps

• Initial Mission Success Criteria are broad and directly linked to achievement of Military Objectives

• These criteria used to measure attainment of the Military End State via the accomplishment of tasks are “Measures of Performance” (MOPs) and “Measures of Effectiveness” (MOEs)

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Step 11: Determine Initial CCIRs

• Commander’s Critical Information Requirements (CCIRs)– “Information requirements identified by the Commander as being

critical to timely information management and the decision-making process that affect successful mission accomplishment.”

• PIRs (Priority Intelligence Requirements)– Adversary or Operational Environment Intelligence– Drive intelligence collection and production

• FFIRs (Friendly Force Information Requirements)– Information the commander and staff need to understand regarding

the status of friendly force and supporting capabilities– identify the information about the mission, troops and support

available, and time available

• EEFIs (Essential Elements of Friendly Information)– EEFIs are not CCIRs, unless specifically approved by the Commander– Establishes an element of information to protect, rather than collect

CCIRs are not static

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Step 12: Prepare Mission Analysis Brief

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Step 12: Prepare Mission Analysis Brief

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• Step One: Review Mission Analysis (Steps 2-12) in light of original Commander’s Appreciation– Reword or refine Commander’s Appreciation as necessary

• Step Two: Further develop Operational Design– Incorporate new design elements including instruments of

National Power (DIME)

– Consider interaction with non-CTF or MNF forces, inter-agencies

Step 13: Review/Refine Commander’s Appreciation & Operational Design

Remember: Operational Design is the conception and construction of the

framework that underpins a campaign or major operation plan and its

subsequent execution

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Step 14: Publish Commander’s Planning Guidance for COA Development, and issue

WARNORD #2

• Commander’s Planning Guidance will include:– Direction for COA Development

– Role of interagencies, IHC, and transition planning

– Direction for Information Operations

– Commander’s risk tolerance

– Warning Order #2 will include:– Mission Statement

– Refined Commander’s Intent

– Military End State and Military Objectives

– Tasks

– MNF Force Structure

– Commander’s Planning Guidance

Reiterate: “What are we trying to accomplish is…”

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Mission Analysis Steps

1. Analyze HHQ Mission and Intent2. Determine Known Facts, Current Status, and Conditions3. Develop Assumptions4. Determine Operational Limitations5. Determine COGs, Decisive Points & Critical Factors6. Identify Operational-level Tasks7. Conduct Initial MNF Force Structure

8. Conduct Initial Risk Assessment9. Determine Military End State , Military Objectives, and

Supporting Effects (SE)10. Develop the Mission Statement and refine the

Commander’s Intent11. Determine initial CCIRs (FFIRs, PIRs, EEFIs) 12. Develop and conduct a Mission Analysis Brief13. Review/Refine Commander’s Appreciation & Operational

Design14. Publish Commander’s Planning Guidance for COA

Development and Issue WARNORD #2

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MDMP-M Steps

Questions and Questions and DiscussionDiscussion