1 microsimulation of businesses in ilumass part 2: firmography rolf moeckel and michael wegener...
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Microsimulation of Businesses in ILUMASS
Part 2: Firmography
Rolf Moeckel and Michael Wegener
Workshop of the Land Use Transportation Modelling Group University College London, 2 July 2005
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Theory of Firmography
Cohen, Cyert (1975): Theory of the Firm
Birch (1979): The Job Generation Process
Freeman, Hannan (1983): Organizational Populations
Willeboordse (1986): Towards a 'demogra-phy' of firms
Cyert, March (1992): A behavioral theory of the firm
Carroll, Hannan (1999): The Demography of Corporations and Industries
Firm
ography
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Firmography
Businesses are updated every simulation period.
Events include:- new businesses are established- employers hire or fire employees- unsuccessful firms run out of businesses
Events are simulated by Markov Models in random order.
Firm
ography
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Sectoral Change: Employment
2010 2020 2030
Service Sector
Industry
Agriculture
Firm
ography
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Boom
Boom
Regression
Regression
Economic Waves: Employment Change
Firm
ography
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Change of Number of Jobs
The sectoral change and the economic prosperity determine the number of jobs.
Firm
ography
Change of number of jobs
+ Establishment of new firms
- Decline of existing firms
+ Growth of existing firms
- shrinking of existing firms
75 Percent25 Percent
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Estimating Number of Birth and Declines
The change of number of jobs per business type is estimated based on - sectoral change, - economic prosperity, and - number of highly-qualified people.
The three elements are aggregated by Cobb-Douglas-Function.
Firm
ography
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Share of Highly-Educated People
Firm
ography
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Estimating Number of Birth and Declines
The employment change by birth and de-clines is estimated based on sectoral change, economic prosperity, and number of highly-qualified people.
Estimation for business type x: + 2 %
Reg. data of new establishments:10 %Reg. data of declining businesses:6 %Resulting Change: + 4 %
Estimation new establishments: 9 %Estimation declining businesses:7 %Resulting Change + 2 %
Firm
ography
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New Business Establishments
New establishments have to find a location even if the site characteristics are not favou-rable for the business.
A few smaller businesses are located at the entrepreneur's home.
New businesses tend to have rather few employees.
Firm
ography
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Size of New Business Establishments
Firm
ography
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Decline of Businesses
Every simulation period some firms run out of business, depending on the structural change and economic prosperity.
Mostly, small business are closed. Larger businesses try to absorb the economic recession by reducing the number of em-ployees.
Firm
ography
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Size of Declining Businesses
Firm
ography
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Change of Number of Employees
Businesses may grow or shrink by hiring or firing employees.
Probabilities for growing and shrinking are estimated based on sectoral change and economic prosperity.
Firm
ography
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Estimating Change of Business Size
Depending on the overall economic trend em-ployers hire or fire employees.
no change 8 % growth4 % decline
Firm
ography
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Firm
ography
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Model run
Firm
ography
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