1

New Entrants to Scottish Agriculture

The State of Play

Douglas Bell

Senior Agricultural Policy Consultant

Content

• Background• Scottish Government’s “New Entrants to

Farming” programme

2

Output Increasing

3

24%

10%

10%7%

3%1%

16%

8%

2%9%

4%6%

Beef

Dairy

Sheep & Wool

Poultry & Eggs

Pigs

Other Livestock

Cereals

Potatoes

Other Crops

Horticulture

Other Agric.

Non-Agric.

£2.74 billion(ex subs)

Source: Scottish Government

Scottish Agricultural Output 2011

Incomes Rising

4

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 2002/03 2005/06 2008/09

(£)

Net Farm Income

Farm Business Income

Source: Scottish Government

Trends in Farm Incomes (Current Prices)

Employment Levels Stabilised

5

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000 19

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

10

Full-time

Part-time

Casual and Seasonal

Total

Source: Scottish Government

Scottish Farming – Total Workforce

Young People in Agriculture

• Student numbers increasing

• 80 clubs throughout Scotland

6

7

Is there a new entrant problem?

Scottish agriculture – a vibrant diverse industry!

X X

1 652 3 4 7 8 9 10

Occupiers, Spouses & Regular Employees

8

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

3500019

8219

8419

8619

8819

9019

9219

9419

9619

9820

0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

10

Occupiers

Spouses

Hired (Full-time)

Family/Business Partners (Full-time)

Hired (Part-time)

Family/Business Partners (Part-time)

Source: Scottish Government

Age of Occupiers & Spouses (2011)

9Source: Scottish Government

Causes

The big “C” issues

10

The Big “C” Issues

• Cash

• CAP

11

FBI Per Unpaid FTE 2010/11

12

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Specialist Sheep (LFA)

Specialist Beef (LFA)

Cattle & Sheep (LFA)

Cereals General Cropping

Dairy Lowland Cattle & Sheep

Mixed All Farm Types

£

Source: Scottish Government

FBI Per Unpaid FTE 2010/11

13

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Specialist Sheep (LFA)

Specialist Beef (LFA)

Cattle & Sheep (LFA)

Cereals General Cropping

Dairy Lowland Cattle & Sheep

Mixed All Farm Types

£

FBI/FTE Direct Support/FTE

Source: Scottish Government

The Big “C” Issues

• Cash

• CAP

• Competition

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The Big “C” Issues

• Cash

• CAP

• Competition

• Capital & Collateral

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Indicative Levels of Tenants Capital

• Lowland cattle & sheep - £2,000/ha

• Cereals - £1,500/ha

• Dairy - £3,000/ha

• Hill sheep - £125/ewe

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The Big “C” Issues

• Cash

• CAP

• Competition

• Capital & Collateral

• Conspiracy

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The Big “C” Issues

• Cash

• CAP

• Competition

• Capital & Collateral

• Confidence

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New Entrants to Farming Programme

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New Entrants to Farming Programme

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New Entrants to Farming Programme

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SG New Entrants to Farming Programme

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www.sac.ac.uk/newentrants

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25This presentation was funded by the Scottish Government as part of its Public Good Veterinary and Advisory Services