11

OilOilThe Modern MannaThe Modern Manna

The Danger of DominionThe Danger of Dominionandand

The Failure of The Failure of StewardshipStewardship

22

“And God said unto them,Be fruitful, and multiply, and

replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.”

Genesis 1:28

33

““The land is mine and you The land is mine and you are but aliens and my are but aliens and my

tenants.tenants.Throughout the country that Throughout the country that

you hold as a possession, you hold as a possession, you must provide for theyou must provide for theredemption of the land.”redemption of the land.”

Leviticus 25:23Leviticus 25:23

But He also said:

4

Humanity’s Challenges Today

• Air, water and soil pollution • Climate change• Deforestation and desertification• Depletion of ocean fish stocks• Depletion of soil fertility and fresh water

reserves• Decline of world grain supply• Massive rates of extinction and biodiversity loss• Social, economic and geopolitical instability• Oil and natural gas depletion

55

““As for you, my flock...As for you, my flock...Is it not enough for you to feed Is it not enough for you to feed

on good pasture?on good pasture?Must you also trample the rest Must you also trample the rest

of your pasture with your feet?”of your pasture with your feet?”

Ezekiel 34:17Ezekiel 34:17

66

The Story of The Story of CivilizationCivilization

isisThe Story of EnergyThe Story of Energy

7

As Our Population Grows,So Does Our Energy Use

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(B

illio

ns)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

En

erg

y U

sed

(B

BO

E)

Population Energy (BBOE)

8

Where Do We Get Our Energy?

• 88% of our energy is from fossil fuels.• 60% of our energy comes from oil and natural gas.

Hydro6% Nuclear

6%

Coal28%

Natural Gas24%

Oil36%

9

How Much Oil Do We Use?• We use 82 million barrels of oil every day.• 1000 barrels every second.

That’s 5 cubic kilometres of oil every year

10

How Much Energy is in5 Cubic Kilometres of Oil?

It’s the yearly output of:

• 200 Three Gorges dams, or• 2500 nuclear power stations, or• 5,000 coal power stations, or• 1,500,000 Wind turbines, or• 4,500,000,000 solar panels

However:Electricity is not a substitute for oil.

11

Oil Is Our Master Resource• Transportation (70%)

97% of transportation is driven by oil

• Plastics

• Artificial fibres

• Fertilizer, pesticides

• Paint

• Heating

• Pharmaceuticals

• Etc. etc. etc.

12

13

What is “Peak Oil”?

The production rate of an oil field follows a bell curve over time.

Production at first increases as the field is developed, but then slows down after about half the oil has been extracted.

This applies to oil fields, countries and the whole world.

14

What is the Problem?

• We have used about half of all the world’s recoverable oil in the last 100 years.

• If civilization depends on oil, then declining oil production means a declining civilization.

15

Who was M. King Hubbert?

• Geophysicist for Shell Oil and the United States Geological Survey from 1943 to 1976.

• In 1956 he predicted that oil production in the United States would peak in about 1970 and would gradually decline after that.

• His prediction came true on schedule: oil production peaked in 1970 and has declined ever since.

16

Hubbert’s Prediction for the USA

17

All Oil Fields Peak

18

A Peak Oil ScenarioWorld Oil Production 1965-2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mil

lio

ns o

f B

arr

els

per

Day

19

When Will the Peak Happen?

• The predictions range from 2005 to 2037, with a building consensus on 2008 to 2012.

• Some respected analysts think it has already happened.

• The exact date does not matter – there will be a peak, and the subsequent decline will be permanent.

20

Will We Discover More Oil?

• There have been no major new finds since 1980.

• We burn four barrels for every one we find.• We have found about 95% of all the oil there is.

21

Are There New Sources of Oil?

• Deep water and heavy oil are the only sources whose production is rising.

• Problems include high costs, high risk, high pollution and low production rates.

• Example: Canada’s Tar SandsPlants are expensive, require lots of natural gas and water, generate huge amounts of pollution, have a low net energy return of 2:1. Canada produces 1 Mbpd, USA wants 5 Mbpd.

22

Are There Substitutes?

• Biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel)

• Coal To Liquids (CTL)

• Liquid or Compressed Natural Gas

• Electricity

• Hydrogen

• Others (Compressed air, fuel cells etc.)

23

Problems with the Substitutes

• Low energy density (hydrogen, natural gas)

• High capital costs (hydrogen, CTL)

• Technical immaturity (batteries and fuel cells)

• Low production rates (biofuels, CTL)

• Pollution (CTL)

• Need for new vehicles.

• Biofuels compete with food.

24

Probable Substitutes

• Electrified rail and urban mass transit.

• Hybrid vehicles (especially PHEV) may provide a partial short term solution.

• All others will remain niche players.

There is no realistic substitute for oil as a general transportation fuel.

25

Speculating on theHuman Consequences

• What are the possible effects of ten years of a 2.5% average decline?

• These are my speculations and are based on my own analysis.

26

The Situation in 2020

• The world has lost 25% of its oil supply.

• Oil prices rise to several times their current levels: $150 to $200 per barrel, more if there’s a war.

• The cost of air travel rises by a similar amount.

• Airline and trucking company bankruptcies soar.

• Rail electrification and public transit booms.

• Suburban housing becomes MUCH cheaper.

27

The Situation in 2020

• Food becomes much more expensive due to rising production and transportation costs.

• Famine expands in many African nations.

• Developing nations without oil supplies default on their debts.

• Resource wars become more common, Middle East destabilizes further.

• Food and fuel riots are common in the third world.

28

How Likely is this Scenario?

• Three quarters of the world’s oil producing countries and the world’s four largest oil fields are already in decline.

• Mexico’s Cantarell field is declining by 25% per year, North Sea oil is declining by 15% per year, Saudi Arabia by 8-10%.

29

Developing Nations• Mexico’s problems with Cantarell:

75% decline in production by 2009 30% drop in federal funds Possible economic implosion Border tensions with USA

• Nations without oil will be hit very hard as oil exports decline.

• Foreign aid may be reduced as OECD economies decline.

• This will be happening as climate change increases, deserts expand, water supplies dry up.

30

Developing Nations

• The problems will be overwhelming: Some nations will experience complete

economic and social collapse. Many millions of economic refugees. Increases in ethnic conflicts, regional tensions

and border wars.

• There will be an urgent need for relief work.• Many of these countries are Islamic, there

will be increased religious tensions and clashes.

• Charitable work by Christians may be viewed with suspicion.

3131

And Now…And Now…SOME PROPOSALSSOME PROPOSALS

International National Municipal Personal

32

Accommodation and Adaptation

• Full replacement of oil is unlikely.

• Over time we will need to change the way we live.

• The first step is to accommodate and adapt our way of life to the new energy constraints.

33

The Role of the United Nations

• We have a good model: the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• The United Nations should convene a similar Inter-Governmental Panel on Oil Depletion (IPOD).

• The panel should issue a Statement of Principles and reports that bring scientific consensus to the current situation and future risks.

34

International Policies

• Rationing and enforced demand suppression:

Carbon taxes

Carbon consumption credits (rationing)

Oil Depletion Protocol – all nations agree to reduce oil production and consumption in line with depletion.

35

International Policy ― Problems

• Requires agreement by all nations to give up sovereign control over oil resources and economic growth.

• Requires enforcement mechanisms.

• The changes may be too large and fundamental.

36

National and Municipal Proposals

37

National Technical Proposals

• Develop national electrical rail systems.

• Increase vehicle fuel efficiency standards.

• Promote efficiency and conservation (“Negawatts”).

• Expand electricity generation, especially renewable.

• What nations will do is to build more coal-fired generating capacity. This will be catastrophic.

38

National Policy Proposals

• Carbon taxes or carbon rationing.

• Use tax codes to encourage the development of renewable electricity sources.

• Fund research into alternative economic and social systems.

• Support education to change value systems away from growth and consumption.

• Use tax codes to discourage economic growth (Perhaps a bit controversial…)

39

Municipal Proposals• Reduce vehicle use

– Stop urban sprawl.– Improve mass transit.– Mandate car-free city cores.– Support car-pooling.– Enforce odd-even driving days.

• Support alternative energy use (co-generation, methane recovery, biomass, etc.).

• Offer strong efficiency/conservation incentives.

• Promote changes to consumption/growth value systems through advertising and education.

40

Personal Strategies

41

Individuals Can HELP

•Humanize: Form closer ties with others.

•Economize: Conserve wherever possible.

•Localize: Reduce travel for food, work, leisure.

•Produce: Some of your own food and energy.

Conservation is key for individuals.

42

Conclusions

• There is no realistic replacement for oil.

• Peak Oil is imminent, and will collide with other crises, particularly climate change.

• Major changes in human behaviour will be required to cope with oil decline.

• In the long run only a major shift in human values will permit our civilization to thrive.

4343

This world is all we have left This world is all we have left of The Garden of Eden. of The Garden of Eden.

Let’s make sure we don’t get Let’s make sure we don’t get ourselves expelled this time.ourselves expelled this time.

44

Contact

This presentation has been prepared byPaul Chefurka

Ottawa, Canada

Email: paul_chefurka@rogers.comWeb: http://www.paulchefurka.ca

© March, 2007. All rights reserved