1 orkpackage 3 definition of 3 scenarios w orkpackage 3 definition of 3 scenarios steps final...
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Workpackage 3orkpackage 3Definition of 3 scenariosDefinition of 3 scenarios
STEPS final meeting
Gé Huismans, Albert Jansen, SenterNovem
June, 15th 2005, Gothenborg
STEPSScenarios for the Transport System and
Energy Supply and their Potential Effects Framework Programme 6, Call 1AThematic Priority 1.6.2, Area 3.1.2, Task 1.10Instrument: Co-ordination Action + Additional Research
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Aim and tasks
Aim: develop scenarios to be modelled and calculated in Workpackage 4 and assessed in Workpackage 5.
Tasks: 1: Synthesis of trends into dimensions 2: Definition of the scenarios 3: Definition of regional impact 4: Building and formulating the scenarios 5: Essay form
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Task 1
Synthesis of trends into dimensions Trends to variables From variables to dimensions Clustering in a matrix Definition of the scenarios
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Task 1.1 > trends to variables
Subsystems
Social-economic and cultural system Spatial System Private transport system Freight transport system Transport Energy System
Energy supply and demand
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EmissionsTechnology System
Distribution Fuel Car Technology Technology Technology
ENERGY DEMAND Energy Use
Energy-Efficiency
Socio-economic and cultural Fuel Fuel Energy Supply SystemSystem Private Distribution Production Energy Production
Transport Energy Transport System System
Fuel supply and distribution system
Spatial System Freight
ENERGY SUPPLY
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Task 1.2 > variables to dimensions
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Task 1.2 > variables to dimensions
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Systemvariables (indicators) + WP2 Long list Clustering into two groups
(availability) (regulation of demand)
Task 1.3 > clustering into a matrix
Exogenous variables1. Globalisation 2. European integration3. Economic growth, (GDP)4. Demographics, 5. Technological progress6. Availabilty of Energy Resources 7. Spatial development8. Transport costs
Policies9. “Liberation” of the energy
market10. Environmental policy11. Spatial planning12. Technological Innovation policy13. Transport policy14. Fiscal Policy15. Energy Policy
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Task 1.4 > definition of the scenarios
Clustering into two groups Exogeneous (availability) Policies (regulation of demand)
1. Energy Demand Regulation– BAU
– Technological/ investment
– Regulation/taxation
2. Energy supply– Trend forecast (IEA + EU) +2%/a
– Worst Case +7%/a
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Task 1.4 > definition of the scenarios
Policies (energy demand)
BAU reference policies 2005
Investments:Technology +
Infrastructure
Demand Control:TaxationRegulations
En
ergy su
pp
ly
Generally accepted energy supply forecast
A0 A1 A2
Worst case energy supply forecasts: Scarcity
B0 B1 B2
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C2
B2
A2
Demand Regulation (scenarios 2)
B3B1B0B-1Energy Scarcity
C3C1C0C-1Extreme fuelprice growth
A3A1A0A-1
Unrestricted energy supply
IntegratedPolicies
(scenarios 3)
Technology Investment
(scenarios 1)
Business as Usual (BAU)
No Policies
Additional scenarios (integration)
Additional scenarios
Main scenarios (integration)
Main scenarios
WP4: 15 scenarios/ WP3: 6 scenarios
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Task 2 > definition of the scenarios
BAU: actual practiced policies, including expert guesses on feasable policy development towards 2030
BAU+INVEST: direct investments in infrastructure, technology and innovation systems (energy efficiency, skills/knowledge, production capacity alternative fuels and rolling stock)
BAU+DEMAND REGULATION: taxation of car use, taxation of fuel, regulation of urban development towards transit orientation and node development
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Task 2 > definition of the scenarios: E-supply
Trend consumption + 60 % in volume (A) Worst case + 7 %/a rise in end-user price (B)
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Task 3 > definition of regional impact
Two ways: Planning families Density and networks
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planning families
- Germanic- Napoleonic- Scandinavian- East European- British
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Urban density
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networks
road
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Networksrail
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proximity
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Task 3 > definition of regional impact
Four European Regions:
1. Northern: Denmark, Finland, Sweden, (Norway)2. Eastern: Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Slovak
Republic, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary 3. Southern: Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Malta,
Cyprus4. Western: Germany, Austria, United Kingdom,
Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, Luxembourg
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Task 4 > building and formulation the scenarios
Desciption of each scenario
General introduction: the basics of that specific scenario A more detailed qualitative description of the scenario, on
variable level (based on the 21 variables selected): On a EU-level: impact on the transport and energy system.
This qualitative description is the basis for the quantification of the variable
On a regional scale Scenario is finalised by summarising the scores of all relevant
variables within the scenario: this quanitified description is the basis for WP4
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Task 4 > building and formulation the scenariosmeasures and indicators used
Variable Indicator Social-Economic and cultural Subsystem
Mobility management, including car-sharing Car ownership
Gasoline fuel tax/ litre
Diesel fuel tax/ litre
Motor Fuel Tax
Kerosine
Car (General car cost) Travel cost change due to fuel taxes
Air (General air cost)
Diffusion of Telework Commuting trips saved per year
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Task 4 > building and formulation the scenariosmeasures and indicators used
Spatial system floor space index - change to base year
Residential Central
Inner urban
Outer urban
Services+business Central
Inner urban
Outer urban
(light) Industrial Central
Inner urban
Outer urban
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Task 4 > building and formulation the scenariosmeasures and indicators used
PassengerTransport System
Investment in infrastructure for Trans European Rail Networks European rail base peed
Investments in regional rail networks Regional rail base peed
Investment in local public transport infrastructure Local public transport speed
Traffic calming in urban areas Average speed reduction for cars
Road pricing in urban areas Average cost of car km and road ton/km
Lower cost for public transport users Bus cost Train cost
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Task 4 > building and formulation the scenariosmeasures and indicators used
Freight Transport System
Traffic calming in urban areas Average speed reduction
Road pricing in urban areas Average cost of car km and road ton/km
Optimisation of City Logistics freight average distance
Freight Load Factor Short Distances:
Improvement of rail infrastructures and services Rail base speed
New freight rail network d or cost
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Task 4 > building and formulation the scenariosmeasures and indicators used
Transport Energy System
Improving energy efficiency for car Car fuel efficiency (gasoline fuel consumption/car)
Car fuel efficiency (Diesel fuel consumption/car)
Investments in alternative vehicle technologies Emission factors
car fleet
Car cost Improving energy efficiency for train Train fuel consumption rate [l/(vhc*km)] (diesel
trains), Electric Consumption Factors [kWh/km] Improving energy efficiency for ship Ship diesel consumption factor [kg/km]
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Social-economic system > BAU
BAU: General:
– GDP, average incomes and demographics (1-P hh): drivers transport demand
– Car-use culturally and socially dependent: national, regional, local differences
Car-sharing – No special actions for car-sharing: car ownership increases (new
EU Member States and rural regions) Taxation on fuels:
– Excise rates grow, affecting New Member States.
– Change in taxation from purchase to use: in general tax burden more or less the same, softens the higher fuel prices
– Kerosine will be taxed
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Social-economic system > BAU + DR
Demand Regulation: Car-sharing
– Legislative profits when car-sharing: Europe-wide, upto local levels
– Higher taxes when purchasing and using the car + restricted entrance for non-sharing cars
– Regional differences: ... Taxation on fuels:
– Excise rates grow rapidly and heavily, especially for the more pollutionate fuels
– Increased fuel prices are not compensated;
– Kerosine will be heavily taxed to create a level-playing-field between modes
– Regional differences: …
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Social-economic System
Variabele Indicator Business as Usual Technologyinvestment
Demandregulation
Car-sharing Carownership
Annual increase of1%
BAU Annual decreaseof 0,6%
Gasolinefuel tax/ litre
Annual increase of0,7%
BAU Annual increase of4,7%
Diesel Diesel fuel tax perlitre increasesannually with 1,5%.
BAU Annual increase of4,7%.
Fuel tax
Kerosine Kerosine tax 50% offuel tax
BAU Kerosine tax 200%of fuel tax
Travel cost Car General car costincreases annuallywith 0,5%
BAU General car costincreases annuallywith 3%
Air General air costdecreases annuallywith 0,5%
BAU General air costdecreases annuallywith 3%
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Spatial System > BAU
BAU: General
– Urban sprawl continued (residential, office, retail)
– No Daily Urban System + Minimum mixed-use
– Some central and nodal developments and browfield; rest greenfield
– Regional differences: ... Floor Space Destination incr/decr (fsi/ zone/land use)
– small/ no increment in central urban area: res/office/retail
– moderate increment inner urban: res/office/retail
– huge increment outer urban: res/office/retail
» biggest effects in new member states
– Regional differences: ...
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Spatial System > BAU + DR
Demand Regulation
Floor Space Destination incr/decr (fsi/ zone/land use)
– Legislation to mix activities (all spatial levels), disables greenfield/hypermarket developments: tax on land take, land banks, …
– End to domination of urban sprawl (2015 onwards)
– Daily Urban System: more close, more dense, more local, more regional, more mixed, more slow modes based
– Inner cities and (inner urban) nodal developments extremely popular, just as new cities around rail near existing cities
– Brownfields (incl. former office locations): highly mixed, medium/high density
– Regional differences: ...
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Variabele Indicator Business as Usual Technologyinvestment
Demandregulation
fsi (floor spaceindex)
Change to baseline BAU
Residential Central +10% BAU +30%inner urban +30% BAU +70%outer urban +70% BAU +0%
Services+business Central +5% BAU +10%inner urban +15% BAU +50%outer urban +50% BAU +0%
(light) Industrial Central + 0%; BAU +0%;inner urban + 10% BAU +80%outer urban +80% BAU +5%
Spatial System
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Passenger Transport System > BAU
BAU General
– no decoupling GDP / pass. Kms
– Growing incomes spent on transport
– Car major role in local and regional transport
– Aviation dominates intra-European travel
– Regional differences: …
Investment in local public transport infrastructure– Decrease (national, regional, local)
– End-user cost increase
– Regional differences: ...
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Passenger Transport System > BAU (2)
BAU Investment in European Rail Networks
– Slight increase: Ten-T and TINA networks planned; construction unclear and dependent on extra investments
– Regional differences: ...
Investment in regional rail – Decrease (national, regional, local)
– End-user cost increase
– Slight shift towards rail due to congestion
– Private companies entering the PT-business
– Regional differences: ...
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Passenger Transport System > BAU (3)
BAU Speed reduction
– Some cities and regions introduced speed reduction measures
– 10% of the EU-network speed reduction measurements Regional differences: ...
Road Pricing– Some cities and regions introduced road pricing
– Regional differences: ...
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Passenger Transport System > BAU (4)
BAU Lower transport for PT users
– Some measures for lower cost: ‘free fares’ in parts of the urban area
– Increase of transport cost
– Regional differences: ...
Extending telework – Few initiatives taken EU-wide
– No significant change in commuting trips
– Regional differences: ...
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Passenger Transport System > BAU + T
Investment in local public transport investment– increase investment 100%: free lanes, extended lines, new
(light weight material), ICT, service providers
Investment in European Rail Networks– Most of the planned lines built: bottlenecks eliminated,
new lines built or extended
Investment in regional rail– increase investment 100%: free lanes, extended lines, new
(light weight material), ICT, service providers
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Passenger Transport System > BAU + DR (1)
Speed reduction– Legislation: 40% of the network speed reduction,
especially urban areas
Road Pricing– legislation: from 2009 on all cities > 80.000 inhabitants
introduced road pricing
– entrance permissions for specific cars only
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Passenger Transport System > BAU + DR (2)
Lower transport cost for PT users– Legislative measures: exclusive (free) P+R facilities and
the use of certain streets in urban areas exclusively for PT
– Subsidies re-introduced (paid by congestion charging), e.g lower VAT when buying tickets
Extending telework– Half of EU-Member States started promoting telework
from 2009 onwards
ALL: Regional differences: ...
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Passenger Transport System
Variabele Indicator Business as Usual Technologyinvestment
Demandregulation
Investment in PTinfra and logistics
Publictransportspeed
Annual increase0,3% bus speed
annual increase of1,1% in local pt(bus, tram) speed
BAU
Investment ininfra for EU RailNetworks
Passenger:new railnetwork, railspeed orcost, flightscostRegional
Annual increase0,8% rail base speed
annual increase of2% European railbase speed
BAU
Investments inrail networks atthe regional level
rail speed orcost
Annual increase:0,4% rail base speed
annual increase:1,7% regional railbase speed
BAU
Speed reduction Averagespeedreduction
Average stepwisespeed reduction forcars with 1,5%every 5 year (or anannual decrease of0,4 % > 10% in 25years)
BAU Average stepwisespeed reductionfor cars with 4%every 5 year (or anannual decrease of1% > 27% in 25years)
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Passenger Transport System (2)
Variabele Indicator Business as Usual Technologyinvestment
Demandregulation
Road Pricing Average costof car kmand roadton/km
Annual increase ofcost per car km of2%
BAU Annual increase ofcost per car km of6%
Bus cost increaseannually with 0,8%,(where no ‘free’busservices areintroduced)
BAU Bus cost decreaseannually with1,7%
Lower transportcost for PT users
Publictransportcost
Train cost increasesannually with 0,8%
BAU Train costdecreases annuallywith 1,7%
Telework Commutingtrips savedper year
annual increase ofcommuting tripssaved: 0%
BAU Stepwise increaseof telework:annual increase ofsaved commutingtrips saved: 0,3%(2030: 7%)
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Freight Transport System > BAU (1)
BAU General
– Increased GDP > More freight: no decoupling
– More trucking (100%)
– Better logistics: higher load factor Speed reduction
– Some cities and regions speed reduction measures
– On 10% of the EU-network speed reduction measurements, especially for freight
– Regional differences: ... Road Pricing
– Some cities and regions introduced road pricing
– Regional differences: ...
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Freight Transport System > BAU (2)
City Logistics to improve efficiency of urban freight
distribution – Few cities and regions introduced freight distribution
policies, e.g restricted delivery times, weight etc Improving freight rail infra and services
– Few investments
– Increased road tax: more demand rail, not met by extra investments> higher prices
– Speed slightly higher Improving freight ship infra and services
– Few investments in inland waterways (small share) and short sea shipping (great share)
– Speed slightly higher
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Freight Transport System > BAU + T (1)
City Logistics to improve efficiency of urban freight
distribution – huge investments in e.g. tracking+tracing, city logistics
centres, delivery/city boxes, other modes (bikes, small electric cars) for the last mile, coöperation between different logistic firms, budgets for marketing and implementation of these concepts to overcome market barriers
Improving freight rail infra and services– 100% extra investments: new and extra rail, electrification
of networks, new rolling stock (lightweight, aerodynamic)
– higher demand met with extra slots
– higher speed
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Freight Transport System > BAU + T (2)
Improving freight ship infra and services– 100% extra investment: extra short sea and inland:
» improved ships
» More and improved infrastructure related to (inland) harbours, waterways: new and longer docks, deeper harbours, cranes, container facilities, techniques and infrastructure for easier passing locks, improved possibilities for intermodal freight
– Faster shipment
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Freight Transport System > BAU + DR (1)
Speed reduction– Legislation: 40% of the network speed reduction,
especially in urban areas, supported by infra measures (drive slow go fast)
Road Pricing– Legislation: from 2009 on all cities over 80.000
inhabitants have introduced road pricing
– 3/4 of the EU-Member States charges toll for freight
– Entrance permissions for specific cars only, related to weight, emission factors, etc
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Freight Transport System
Variabele Indicator Business as Usual Technologyinvestment
Demand regulation
Speed reduction Averagespeedreduction
Average stepwisespeed reduction forcars with 1,5%every 5 year (or anannual decrease of0,4 % > 10% in 25years)
BAU Average stepwisespeed reduction forcars with 4% every5 year (or an annualdecrease of 1% >27% in 25 years)
Road Pricing Average costof car kmand roadton/km
Annual increase ofcost per car km of2%
BAU Annual increase ofcost per car km of6%
Freight AverageDistance: annualdecrease ofdistances of 0,2%
Annual decrease ofdistances of 0,5%
BAUCity Logistics toimproveefficiency ofurban freightdistribution
Freighttransportintensity andcost,accessibility,freightaveragedistance
Freight Load FactorShort Distances:annual increase of0.8%
Freight Load FactorShort Distances:annual increase of2,4%
BAU
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Freight Transport System (2)
Variabele Indicator Business as Usual Technologyinvestment
Demand regulation
Annual increase0,7% rail base speed
Annual increase 2%rail base speed
BAUImproving railinfrastructuresand services
new freightrail network,rail speed orcost Rail cost: annual
increase with 0,6%Rail cost: annualdecreases with 1,5%
BAU
Improving shipsinfrastructuresand services
Freight shipsspeed or cost
Annual increase0,6% ship speed
Annual increase1,3% ship speed
BAU
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Transport Energy System > BAU (1)
BAU Improving energy efficiency for car
– Investments decrease
– Ongoing improvements in energy efficiency, e.g. direct injection, lightweight materials, and better aerodynamics - legislation on emissions (air quality) > slight annual decrease fuel consumption
Investments in alternative vehicle technologies– Investments decrease
– Decreased emissions (Euro; every 9 years 50% reduction)
– Slow decrease conventionals (75%), slightly growing share for alternatives:
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Transport Energy System > BAU (2)
BAU Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
» Hybrids: 15% share (2004 already small share, growing share due to marketing and lower prices)
» CNG: 10% share, implementation quite easy: already infra for gas distribution. Beneficial: air quality legislation
» Electric: max. 1% share; niche market (fleets local authorities, etc)
» Hydrogen: some 2% share, grow after 2020
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Transport Energy System > BAU (3)
BAU Improving energy efficiency for train
– no mayor investments, only fleet renewal
Improving energy efficiency for ship– no mayor investments, only fleet renewal
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Transport Energy System > BAU + T (1)
BAU Improving energy efficiency for car
– Investments increased: government and (due to that) private companies > share 15% of sales
– Sped up improvements > direct injection, lightweight materials, modestly powered cars, better aerodynamics + legislation on emissions (air quality) > moderate annual decrease fuel consumption
Investments in alternative vehicle technologies– Investments +100% (also private companies): lightweight,
low noise, energy efficient cars, engines on biofuels, batteries fit for electric cars, fuel cell technology etc, ready to fit in modern logistic concepts….
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Transport Energy System > BAU + T (2)
BAU Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
– Sped up decrease of emissions (Euro; every 5yrs -50%)
– Faster decrease conventionals (55% share)
– Faster growing share for alternatives:
» hybrids: 20% share > 2005 small share; growing share due to marketing, lower prices, lightweight batteries, improved traction, improving recharging, accompanying legislations on emissions
» CNG: 15% share > implementation quite easy and sped up: already infra for gas distribution. Beneficial: air quality legislation
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Transport Energy System > BAU + T (3)
BAU Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
» Electric: 5% share > improved batteries, expanded niche market towards mainstream (fleets local
authorities, cars for local and regional use)
» Hydrogen: 5% share, faster growth after 2020
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Transport Energy System > BAU + T (4)
BAU Improving energy efficiency for train
– 100% extra investments, (lighter) materials for trains, engines, traction, use of low-energy consuming devices for passengers (light, heating), etc. Research on even better streamline, lay-out etc of the trains itself and on the most energy efficient mode (diesel vs electricity) and re-use of the braking energy > faster
Improving energy efficiency for ship– 100 % extra investments, research on other (lighter)
materials for ships, motors, traction, etc. Research on even better streamline, lay-out etc of the ship itself, ...
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Transport Energy System (1)
Variable Indicator Business as Usual Technology Investment
Demand Regulation
Transport Energy System Annual change in %
Improving energy efficiency for car
Car fuel efficiency (gasoline fuel consumption/car)
- 0,5% - 2% - 0,5%
Car fuel efficiency (Diesel fuel consumption/car)
- 1% - 3% - 1%
Investments in alternative vehicle technologies
Emission factors - 8,1% - 16% - 8,1%
car fleet Conventional (gas/ dsl: -1% / share: 72% Hybrids: +12,5% / share: 15% CNG: +10% / share: 10% Electric +3% / share: 1% Hydrogen + 3% share: 2%
Conventional: -2,1 share: 55%
Hybrids: + 13,5 %
/ share 20% CNG: +12% /
share 15% Electric: +7% /
share 5% Hydrogen: +7,8% share 5%
Conventional (gas/ dsl: -1% / share: 72% Hybrids: +12,5% / share: 15% CNG: +10% / share: 10% Electric +3% / share: 1% Hydrogen + 3% share: 2%
Car cost + 0,8% + 3% + 0,8%
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Transport Energy System (2)
Variable Indicator Business as Usual Technology Investment
Demand Regulation
Improving energy efficiency for train
Train fuel consumption rate [l/(vhc*km)] (diesel trains), Electric Consumption Factors [kWh/km]
- 0,8% - 5% - 0,8%
Improving energy efficiency for ship
Ship diesel consumption factor [kg/km]
- 0,4% - 1,6% - 0,4%
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WP3: Scenarios
Thank you for the attention and discussion