1 pension reform in the slovak republic: progress and overview marek lendacký ministry of labour,...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Pension reform in the Slovak Republic:Progress and overview
Marek LendackýMinistry of Labour, Social Affairs and Family
Slovak Republic
Seminar"Pension Reform in Eastern Europe, Experiences and
Perspectives"Kiev, Ukraine, May 27-28, 2004
President Hotel Kyivsky
2
Outline of Presentation
Pre reform periodPast and future demographic environmentImplicit pension debtBasic documentsEarly reform measuresMain reform – I. pillarMain reform – II. pillar (structure, features)Implementation stageWhy second pillar reform strategy
3
Pre Reform Period
Transformation from planned to market economyWorsening of economic and demographic situationSocial security financed completely from state budgetCzech and Slovak Republic divorce (1993)Old social security law (1988) – covered all parts of social securityPAYG-financing with very low reservesBig redistribution (very progressive formula)Preferential treatment (special working categories)High contribution rate (28 % total)Low retirement age (M – 60Y, W – 53-57Y)
4
Past Demographic Environment
YEAR Total population
Total population increase
Live births per 1000 inhabitants
Deaths per 1000 inhabitants
Total increase per 1000 inhabitants
1950 3 463 446 45 595 28.8 11.5 17.3 1960 3 994 270 48 723 22.1 7.9 14.2 1970 4 528 459 33 969 17.8 9.3 8.5 1980 4 984 331 41 392 19.1 10.1 8.9 1985 5 161 789 34 399 17.5 10.2 7.3 1990 5 297 774 23 048 15.1 10.3 4.8 1995 5 363 638 11 583 11.5 9.8 2.2 1998 5 393 382 5 732 10.7 9.9 1.1 1999 5 398 657 5 275 10.4 9.7 1.0 2000 5 402 547 3 890 10.2 9.8 0.7 2001* 5 378 951 168 9,5 9,7 0,0
* According to Population and Housing Census 2001
5
Future Demographic Environment
Demographic dependency ratio
0,00
0,501,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
6
Implicit Pension Debt
Bln. Sk % GDP Bln. Sk % GDP
685 77% 991 112%206 23% 364 41%478 54% 628 71%
Bln. Sk % GDP Bln. Sk % GDP Bln. Sk % GDP
1 676 189% 895 101% 2 571 290%570 64% 304 34% 874 99%
1 106 125% 590 67% 1 697 191%IPD Active Members
IPD (D+S) TOTAL IPD
IPD TotalIPD pensioners
IPD Old age pensioners
IPD Active Members
OUTPUTS IPD Olg Age
OUTPUTS MEN WOMEN
IPD Old Age
Real discount rate 1,03 1,03
Real old age pension index 1,01 1,01Replacement ratio (net/gross) 54,3 47,3
Working (insurance) period 40 35Real wage growth index 1,02 1,02
INPUTS MEN WOMEN
7
Explicit Surpluses and Deficits of the Current Pension System as a % of GDP
Balance of the Reformed I. Pillar without increasing the Retirement Age
8
Basic Documents
Concept of transformation of the social sphere (1995) State social support Social assistance Social insurance
Concept of social insurance reform (2000) Sickness insurance Work injury insurance Pension security
I. pillar (covered by Social Insurance Law – as from1.1.2004) II. pillar (covered by Law on old-age pension savings – as
from 1.1.2005) III. pillar (covered by Law on supplementary pension savings
– now amending)
9
The New Slovak Three Pillar Pension System
Two-Pillar
Mandatory
System
Voluntary
System
I. PillarUNFUNDED
II. PillarFULLY-FUNDED
III. PillarVOLUNTARY
10
Contribution rates as from 1. 1. 2005
Monopillar system
Duopillar system
I. pillar I. pillar II. pillar
employee employer employee employer employee employer
Sickness insurance 1,4 % 1,4 % 1,4 % 1,4 % – –
Old-age insurance 4 % 14 % 4 % 5 % – –
Old-age savings - - – – – 9 %
Disabilityinsurance
3 % 3 % 3 % 3 % – –
Reserve fund – 4,75 % – 4,75 % – –
Work injury insurance – 0,8 % – 0,8 % – –
Garanty insurance – 0,25 % – 0,25 % – –
Unemploymentinsurance
1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % – –
Health insurance 4 % 10 % 4 % 10 %
TOTAL 48,6 % 48,6 %
11
First Pillar Reform – Social Insurance Law
New benefit formula (strictly neutral)
New indexation principle (Swiss indexation)
Increased assessment period (10+)
Increased retirement age (62 both genders)
Preferences abolished (universality)
New definition of disability
Entitlement conditions for W-w’s, W-er’s pensions equalized
12
Timing of the reform – basic element of the success in the case of Slovakia
2002 – election year, new reform oriented government (4 political parties)Strong emphasis for the pension reform with substantial funded element2003 – the year of preparation and amendment of the pension reform lawsBeginning 2004 – minority in the Parliament, „hard time“ for any deep reformOpposition partially supported the reform, unions wanted smaller II. PillarConclusion - if the pension reform not passed in 2003 – it would be no strong reform
13
Second Pillar Introduction – Law on old-age pension savings
Mandatory for those who have never been insured by Social SecurityNew single-purpose companies – Pension AM Companies, transfer through CR in Social Insurance AgencyContribution rate 9 % paid solely by the employer10 years minimum savings period requirementSpecial transitory reserve fundSaver’s ownership of pension fund’s moneyAnnuities paid by life insurance companies, free disposal paid by Pension AM Companies
14
Structure of the II. pillar
Pension AM Company
Financial Market Authority
Central Registry
Employer or State
PF-GrPF-Cons PF-Bal
Social Insurance AgencyDEPOSITARY
Saver
15
Implementation stage – task of the day
Law on old-age pension savings adopted in December 2003, after president veto again in January 20042005 – Year of secondary regulations (also possible amendment of the Law)Around 10 secondary regulations, couple of manuals2 working groups (MoL, MoF, FMA, SIA)Consultants (local and foreign)
16
Expectations
Relatively small local market
Expected nb. of people joining II. pillar – around 1000000 (30 - 50 % of the workforce)
Expected nb. of applicants – around 5
Assets under management in first year – around 10 bln SKK (around 300 mil USD)
Each next year – additional 450 mil USD
17
Second Pillar Reform Strategy –Right way?
Diversification of sources of financing - security
One-time privatization resources - effectivity
Shift to mixed DB and DC system - balancing
Part of IPD removed – responsibility
Attempt to acquire possible higher capital market return in comparison to labour market return - challenge
Level of knowledge of financial principles in financing the old - age improved - education