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Portfolio Analysis

Mike Hopkins

Senior Manager, Price Risk & Resource Planning

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What is Portfolio Analysis?• Evaluation of different groupings of demand-side and supply-side

resources to meet load forecast

• Considers both energy and capacity requirements

• Enables assessment of tradeoffs between different portfolios

• How do the different portfolios perform under changing conditions?

• Enables selection of preferred portfolio to meet the objectives

• FBC directed to do portfolio analysis in BCUC acceptance of 2012 LTRP

Portfolio Analysis Process

1. Load-Resource Balance

• Energy Gaps• Capacity Gaps

2. Develop Feasible Resource Options

4a. Develop Base Portfolio

4b. Develop Alternative Portfolios

5. Evaluate Portfolios

6. Preferred Portfolio

3. Identify Uncertainties &

Risks(Load, DSM, Market,

Resources)

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Portfolio Analysis

Consideration of Resource attributes:

Technical

Financial

Environmental

Social/Economic

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Portfolio Analysis – Base Portfolio

Assumptions of the base portfolio:

• Base case load forecast (before DSM & Other Savings)

• Base case DSM & Other Savings

• Current carbon tax

• Mid electricity price

• Mid gas price

• Continued access to market purchases

• 93% clean or renewable resources

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Portfolio Analysis – Alternative Portfolios

Possible alternative portfolios:

100% market reliance

Self-sufficiency (no market supply)

100% clean or renewable resources

No 93% clean or renewable

requirementFlexible termination

of BCH PPA More aggressive DSM

More conservative DSM

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Portfolio Analysis

Criteria to evaluate portfolios:

1. Economics (cost, rate impacts)

2. Self-sufficiency

3. Environment (e.g. GHG emissions)

4. Clean or renewable

5. Resource adequacy (LOLE target)

Portfolio evaluation: Score or ranking

Sensitivity analysis: e.g. high/low electricity/gas/carbon prices

Contingency analysis on the preferred portfolio:

e.g. high/low gaps

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Questions?