1 produced by:. welcome and opening comments ralf garrison, host the assembly david ingemie,...

1Produced by:

2

Welcome and Opening Comments

Ralf Garrison,Host

The ASSEMBLY

David Ingemie, President

SnowSports Industries America

THE ASSEMBLYJanuary 23rd, 2013

Data as of December 31, 2012

Presented by: Tom Foley

The Colorado Convention CenterJanuary 31, 2014

GENERAL SESSION 1: Situation: State of the Industry – Winter 13/14

Sponsored by: 4

5

Moderated by:Nate Fristoe,

DirectorRRC

Presenter:Tom Foley,Director of OperationsDestiMetrics

Presenter:David Becher,Director of ResearchRRC

Presenter:Kelly Davis,Director of ResearchSIA


6Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]

AspenAvonBeaver CreekBreckenridgeCopper MtnGunnison / Crested ButteJackson HoleKeystoneMammoth LakesMt BachelorNorth Lake TahoePark CitySnowmassSteamboat SpringsSummit Cty, COTellurideWinter ParkVail

Hunter MountainJay Peak

Jiminy PeakKillington

Mt TremblantMt Washington

Snowshoe Stratton

Sugarbush Sunday River

MTR

iP W

EST M

TRiP EAST2013: THE DESTIMETRICS DATA


2013: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

Dow Jones

Confidence

Unemployment

Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected]

2014: ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS

Lowest Projection Highest

Projection Avg

GDP 1.5% 2.5% 2.9% 3.3% 2.6%

Unemployment 6.3% 6.3% 6.6% 7.1% 6.6%

Dow Jones 1.0% 3.5% 5.0% 7.0% 4.1%

Existing Home Sales -2.2% 1.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2.0%

New Home Sales 5.9% 12.5% 16.0% 18.5% 13.2%

Sources: PKF, KPMG, Kiplinger, The Conference Board


Nights

Revenue

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

69.3%

79.5%

24.2% Nights In The Bank

25.3% Revenue In The Bank

Winter Night & Revenue Fill: % of Last Years Totals Booked (as of December 31, 2013 Actual

54.2% Revenue On The Books

45.1% Nights On The Books

SEASONAL HEALTH: PROGRESS TO-DATE


Nights

Revenue

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

88.6%

96.1%

48.5% Nights In The Bank

53.2% Revenue In The Bank

Winter Night & Revenue Fill: % of Last Years Totals Booked (as of Jan 31, 2014 Projected)

42.9% Revenue On The Books

40.1% Nights On The Books

SEASONAL HEALTH: PROGRESS TO-DATE


Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR for Aggregate of all Winter Months (November ‘13 – April ‘14) On-The-Books as of 12/31/2013

OCC

UPA

NCY

RAT

E

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

90%

80%

70%

60%

100%

31.6%

ADR

$300

$200

$100

$400

$352

RevP

AR

$150

$100

$50

$200

$112

11

6.9% 4.9% 12.1%

Occupancy

‘13/14: 31.6%

‘12/1329.6%

ADR

’13/14: $352

’12/13$336

RevPAR

’13/14: $112

’12/13$99

Occupancy ADR RevPAR

SEASONAL HEALTH: WHERE WE STAND

Made possible by DestiMetrics LLCProperty of DestiMetrics LLC dba The ASSEMBLY - All Rights Reserved - 303.731.2268 – theassembly.destimetrics.com - [email protected] 12

CALLING THE SEASON: OCCUPANCY

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/140.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%47.1%

39.1%39.7%

42.0%40.6%

42.7%

45.8%

+7.3%


CALLING THE SEASON: RATE

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 $260.00

$270.00

$280.00

$290.00

$300.00

$310.00

$320.00

$330.00 $325.00

$301.00

$289.00

$294.00

$307.00

$318.00

$327.64

+3.0%


CALLING THE SEASON: RevPAR

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 $-

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00 $152.00

$118.00 $114.00 $123.00 $125.00

$136.00

$151.63

+11.5%


SEASONAL HEALTH: THE BENCHMARK?

'07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

-17.0%-15.7%

-10.8%-13.8%

-9.3% -2.8%-7.4%-11.1% -9.5%

-5.5%-2.2%

0.8%

-22.4% -25.0%

-19.1% -17.8%-10.5%

-0.2%

Winter Recovery: 2008/09 - 2012/13 Actuals and 2013/14 Projectionversus 2007/08 Benchmark

% Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08


SEASONAL HEALTH: SUMMER STRENGTH

2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

-1.3%

-13.9%

-9.5%

-4.1%

2.8%

8.8%

0.0%

-4.9% -4.3%-2.4%

0.6%

6.7%

0.0%

-15.7%

-11.8%

-3.9%

5.5%

17.6%

6 Year Summer Performance: 2008 - 2013 vs 2007

% Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 % Chg ADR vs 2007 % Chg Revenue vs 2007


• Interrelationships between:– Holiday / nonholiday periods– Visitor demographics– Geographic origin

• Data reflects overnight visitors to Rocky Mountain ski resorts (08/09-12/13 average)– Includes 57 resorts accounting for 94% of Rocky Mountain

resort visits– Thanks to NSAA, state associations, and individual resorts for

sponsoring efforts & sharing data

Overnight Skier/Rider Characteristicsby Time of Season


Nov 05

Nov 12

Nov 19

Nov 26

Dec 03

Dec 10

Dec 17

Dec 24

Dec 31

Jan 07

Jan 14

Jan 21

Jan 28

Feb 04

Feb 11

Feb 18

Feb 25

Mar 04

Mar 11

Mar 18

Mar 25

Apr 01

Apr 08

Apr 15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Share of partiesw/ kids aged 0-17

(left scale; 5 yr historic avg)

Share of K-12 districts onwint/spr break

(right scale;4 yr historic avg)

Week (beginning Monday; 2012/13)

Shar

e of

Ove

rnig

ht P

artie

s w

ith

Kids

Age

0-1

7

Shar

e of

Sch

ool D

istr

icts

on

Vaca

tion

Kids’ Visitation & Holiday Periods(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)


Age 18-24 Visitation & University Vacations(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)

Nov 05

Nov 12

Nov 19

Nov 26

Dec 03

Dec 10

Dec 17

Dec 24

Dec 31

Jan 07

Jan 14

Jan 21

Jan 28

Feb 04

Feb 11

Feb 18

Feb 25

Mar 04

Mar 11

Mar 18

Mar 25

Apr 01

Apr 08

Apr 15

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Share of Rocky Mtnovernight visitors

aged 18 - 24(left scale;

5 yr historic avg)

Share of universities onwint/spr break



Shar

e of

Ove

rnig

ht V

isit

ors

Age

d 18

-24

Shar

e of

Uni

vers

ities

on

Vaca

tion


Opportunity Segments in Off-Peak Periods(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)

Nov 05

Nov 12

Nov 19

Nov 26

Dec 03

Dec 10

Dec 17

Dec 24

Dec 31

Jan 07

Jan 14

Jan 21

Jan 28

Feb 04

Feb 11

Feb 18

Feb 25

Mar 04

Mar 11

Mar 18

Mar 25

Apr 01

Apr 08

Apr 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Couples w/okids (index)

(left scale; 5 yr historic avg)

Friends in party (Index)(left scale;

5 yr historic avg)

Age 55+ (Index)(left scale;

5 yr historic avg)

Share of schools/univs onwint/spr break


Week (Mon - Sun, 2012/13)

Inde

x (1

00=s

easo

n av

erag

e)

Shar

e of

Sch

ools

/ U

nive

rsiti

es o

n Va

catio

n


Nov 05

Nov 12

Nov 19

Nov 26

Dec 03

Dec 10

Dec 17

Dec 24

Dec 31

Jan 07

Jan 14

Jan 21

Jan 28

Feb 04

Feb 11

Feb 18

Feb 25

Mar 04

Mar 11

Mar 18

Mar 25

Apr 01

Apr 08

Apr 15

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Texas(5 yr historic avg)

New York City DMA(5 yr historic avg) Chicago DMA

(5 yr historic avg)


Perc

ent o

f Ove

rnig

ht V

isit

ors

Timing by Domestic Market(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)


Timing by Foreign Market(Overnight visitors to Rocky Mtn resorts)

Nov 05

Nov 12

Nov 19

Nov 26

Dec 03

Dec 10

Dec 17

Dec 24

Dec 31

Jan 07

Jan 14

Jan 21

Jan 28

Feb 04

Feb 11

Feb 18

Feb 25

Mar 04

Mar 11

Mar 18

Mar 25

Apr 01

Apr 08

Apr 15

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Australia(5 yr historic avg)

Canada(5 yr historic avg)

Latin America(5 yr avg)

UK(5 yr historic avg)

Week (Mon - Sun, 2012/13)

Perc

ent o

f Ove

rnig

ht V

isit

ors


• Summary: significant seasonal variation– Strong family representation on holidays – Strong university representation at Xmas, Spr Brk– Off-peak opportunities with non-families– Geographic idiosyncrasies in travel timing (typically

related to holidays & school breaks)– Cautions:

– Visitor profile is diverse throughout core of season– Many overnight visitor characteristics show modest

variation by time of season (NPS), or unique variations (LOS)– Significant variability across resorts

Overnight Skier/Rider Characteristicsby Time of Season

State of the Snow Sports MarketJanuary 2014

Sales reached $2.3B, up 9% in $ and up 7% in units sold through December

19.3M participants7M who didn’t participate but consider themselves skiers/riders

Channels: Specialty, $1B – up 7% in units and up 8% in dollars Internet, $548M - up 1% in units and up 12% in dollars Chain Stores, $496M – up 11% in units and up 10% in dollars

Categories Apparel, $985M – up 2% in units and up 7% in dollars Accessories, $734M - up 10% in units and up 15% in dollars Equipment, $541M - up 5% in units and up 6% in dollars

THE SNOW SPORTS MARKET60K FT VIEW

Source: *SIA RetailTRAK™ produced by Leisure Trends, a NPD Group Company - August to December 2013 – Carryover Included

SALES BY MONTH

+7% +6% +7% +14%

August - Sep-tember

October November December January February March$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

Sales by Month 2010/2011 - December 2013

2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

$1.15B$1.1B

SALES BY CHANNEL

Chain Internet Specialty All Stores

Prior Season to Date 495994339.4329 547535984.6558 1023992807.4545 2067523131.5432

Season to Date 543682157.1043 612530626.1917 1103930291.3713 2260143074.6673

$250,000,000

$750,000,000

$1,250,000,000

$1,750,000,000

$2,250,000,000

$ Sales by Channel Aug - Dec 2013 v. Aug - Dec 2012

$ S

ales

$ SALES BY REGION

Midwest West Northeast South

$203,829,292

$359,965,063

$304,289,091

$155,909,353

$218,317,615

$382,645,383

$325,648,951

$177,318,343

Specialty Sales by Region Aug - Dec 2013 v. Aug - Dec 2012

Prior Season to Date Season to Date

SEASON TO DATE SALES BY CATEGORY

Dollars Soldas values Prior Season to Date Season to Date YTD Change YTD Growth

Alpine Ski Equipment $314,834,975 $339,090,404 $24,255,429 7.70%

Nordic Ski Equipment $18,593,459 $21,616,730 $3,023,272 16.26%

Randonee/AT Ski Equipment $8,576,458 $10,545,489 $1,969,032 22.96%

Snowboard Equipment $163,985,327 $167,199,430 $3,214,103 1.96%

Alpine Apparel $758,452,689 $816,642,086 $58,189,397 7.67%

Snowboard Apparel $109,974,967 $112,754,464 $2,779,497 2.53%

Equipment Accessories $286,723,994 $331,731,097 $45,007,103 15.70%

Apparel Accessories $349,920,134 $402,156,652 $52,236,518 14.93%

Total $2,011,062,003 $2,201,736,352 $190,674,349 9.48%

WEATHER

January 20, 2014

January 20, 2013

GROWING PARTICIPATION

• Learn to Ski and Snowboard Month• Bring a Friend• Passport and Snow Pass Programs• Olympics?• Local/Small Hills? Terrain based Learning

and Riglet Parks• Opportunities?

OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

• Market is up overall but drought in the Pacific region threatens

• Programs promoting participation in snow sports are working – what’s next?

• Gen Y and Gen Z will soon take over the market – are we ready?

• We are getting a clearer picture of why our consumers love to ski and ride – how can we use that?

• How can snow sports exploit suburban adult trends?

CONTACT SIA RESEARCH• Kelly Davis – [email protected], 703-506-4224

• Emily Ohara – [email protected], 703-506-4218

• Western SIA Rep – Dave Wray, [email protected]

• Mountain and Mid-West SIA Rep – Reddy Kennedy, [email protected]

• East Coast SIA Rep – Ed Wray, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




34

Panelist:Michael Berry,PresidentNSAA

Panelist:Nathan Rafferty,President & CEOSki Utah

Panelist:Melanie Mills,President & CEOColorado Ski Country


1 produced by:. welcome and opening comments ralf garrison, host the assembly david ingemie,...

Documents

destimetrics data slide

date slide

conference board slide

summer strength slide

assembly david ingemie

rocky mtn resorts

director rrc

rocky mountain ski resorts