1 progress on science activities in 2007 climate forecast products team cpc products list risa poc...

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Progress on Science Activities in 2007Progress on Science Activities in 2007Climate Forecast Products TeamClimate Forecast Products Team

CPC Products List CPC Products List

RISA POC Projects, Personnel, and ProductsRISA POC Projects, Personnel, and Products

NDFDNDFD

Question CPC/POC Need to AnswerQuestion CPC/POC Need to Answer

Proposed ProductsProposed Products

Edward O’LenicChief, Operations Branch, CPC

CTB-SAB meeting August 28, 2007

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RISA-POC ActivitiesRISA-POC Activities

oCTB has engaged the Climate Applications CTB has engaged the Climate Applications Community to identify user needs, and to Community to identify user needs, and to accelerate the transitionaccelerate the transition of relevant research into of relevant research into CPC products. CPC products.

oCPC is developing an inventory of its current CPC is developing an inventory of its current operational products and their future direction.operational products and their future direction.

oCTB/CPC RISA POCs are developing lists of CTB/CPC RISA POCs are developing lists of proposed future products, and services.proposed future products, and services.

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Inventory of CPC Official Products 3 MONTH OUTLOOK

Product Name

Product Components

Input Data Freq. Issued

Performance Measure /

Verification

Users & Uses # of Web Hits

Planned Improvements

US Three-Month

Probabilistic Temperature

and Precipitation

Outlooks

(Three month seasons out to

1 year)

13 images and grids for US Temperature

13 images and grids for US Precipitation

NDFD elements for probability of above and below normal/median temperature/ precipitation for each of 13 leads

Dynamical tools (CFS, multi-model

ensembles)

Statistical tools (SMLR, CCA, OCN, ENSO composites)

Inter-agency tools (IRI, ESRL, Scripps).

ENSO Outlook

Monthly Performance (GPRA)

Measure: Heidke Skill Score for US

Temp

Verification: gridded station

data

Public/private decision

makers for economic &

business planning

(Top Users: Energy,

Agriculture, Retail, H2O Resources,

Commodities, Public)

Available Improved tools and consolidation

Additional objective verification & performance

measures

User feedback on desired format (e.g.

GIS) and user interface

Inclusion of distribution

information as NDFD elements

US Three Month Outlook

Discussion

1 text document As above Monthly Subjective user feedback

Public/private users with technical

background

Available User feedback on forecast

Hawaiian Three Month Outlooks and Discussion

Images and grids

1 text document

As above Monthly Verification: gridded station

data

Subjective user feedback

As Above Available As above

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Inventory of CPC Official Products Hurricane Outlooks

Product Name

Product Components



Verification

Users & Uses

# of Web Hits


Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

(Jun-Nov)

1 text document

# of Named Storms;

# of Hurricanes;

# of Major Hurricanes;

ACE Index

Dynamical tools (CFS seasonal forecasts)

Statistical tools

ENSO Outlook

Twice per year

(May; August update)

Verification:

# of Named Storms;

# of Hurricanes;

# of Major Hurricanes

ACE Index



business planning

( Emergency Mgmt;

Insurance Industry, Public)


User feedback on desired format

Eastern Pacific

Hurricane Outlook

(Jun-Nov)

1 text document

# of Named Storms;

# of Hurricanes;


Dynamical tools (CFS seasonal forecasts)

Statistical tools

ENSO Outlook

As above Verification:

# of Named Storms;

# of Hurricanes;


As above Available Improved tools and consolidation

User feedback on desired format

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Inventory of CPC Official Products 1 MONTH OUTLOOKS

Product Name

Product Components



Verification

Users & Uses

# of Web Hits


US One-Month

Probabilistic Temperature

and Precipitation

Outlooks


2 images and grids for US Precipitation.

NDFD elements for probability of

above and below

normal/median

temperature/ precipitation

Dynamical tools (CFS, multi-model

ensembles)

Statistical tools (SMLR, CCA, OCN, ENSO composites)

Inter-agency tools (IRI, ESRL, Scripps).

ENSO Outlook

Twice per

month

(middle & end of previous month)


data



business planning

(Top Users: Energy,

Agriculture, Retail, H2O Resources,

Commodities, Public)


Additional objective verification & performance

measures

User feedback on desired format (e.g.

GIS) and user interface

Inclusion of distribution


US One Month Outlook

Discussion

1 text document

As above As above

Subjective user feedback


makers with technical

background for insight into

1-mo fcsts

Available User feedback on forecast

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Product Name

Product Components



Verification

Users / Uses

# of Web Hits


6-10/8-14 Day Probabilistic Temperature

and Precipitation

Outlooks


and Precipitation

NDFD elements for probability of above and

below normal/median

temperature/ precipitation

Dynamical Tools (GFS, NAEFS)

Statistical Tools (Klein, Analog,

Neural Net)

Daily Performance Measure:

Heidke Skill Score; Ranked Probability Skill

Score


data



business planning

Available Objective skill based blend weighting.

Additional tools, skill measures.

Inclusion of 8-14-day distribution


6-10/8-14 Day Mean North

American 500 HPA Outlook

2 images and grids

Dynamical Tools (GFS, ECMWF,

Canadian)

Statistical Tools

Daily Anomaly correlations for

Northern Hemisphere,

North America, and US/CAN



background for economic & business

planning

Available Objective skill based blend weighting.

Additional dynamical models.

6-10/8-14 Day Outlook

Discussion

1 text discussion

As above Daily None As above Available Increased Collaboration

Increased manhour resources

Inventory of CPC Official Products 6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks

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Inventory of CPC Official Products Hazards Assessments / Heat Index

Product Name

Product Components



Verification

Users & Uses

# of Web Hits


3 to 14 Day Hazards

Assessment

3 images Heavy precip climos, IR animations, CPC MJO reports, CPC

ENSO Bulletins, SPC Convective Outlooks, Gridded Precip OBS, CPC 6-10/8-14 Day

Outlooks/Heat Index/Wind Chill, HPC short range

outlooks

Daily (Except

weekend)

Hit rate, threat score,

probability of detection,

false alarm rate, bias

Emergency managers,

private industry and

public for mitigation of potentially hazardous

events

Available Probability maps of extreme

temperature, precipitation, severe weather, and other,

variables.

3 to 14 Day Hazards

Discussion

1 text document

3 to 14 Day Hazards Assessment

Daily Subjective user feedback

As above Available User feedback via weekly telephone conference call

6-10/8-14 Day Maximum Heat Index Prediction

2 images CADB Hourly & Daily OBS, GFS

Ensembles (2m temp gempak grids), ascii station climos [1971-

2000]

Daily Subjective user feedback

Heath officials & local

emergency managers for

health risk mitigation

Available Based upon verification and user

feedback

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Inventory of CPC Official Products Diagnostic Discussions & Bulletins

Product Name

Product Components



Verification

Users & Uses

# of Web Hits


ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

1 text document

ENSO monitoring images (SST Anoms, upper

ocean heat anoms, subsurface temp

anoms). Statistical and dynamic model fcst ensembles (IRI

Plume), CPC Consolidated SST, Weekly CPC ENSO

Reports

monthly Oceanic Nino Index

Technical support of

climate outlooks / public & private

decision makers w technical

background

Available Include ENSO Alert Classification

System

Climate Diagnostics

Bulletin

~75 text images and

grids

Tropics Indices & Plots (SLP, SOI,

zonal wind, OLR, SST). Extratropics plots (temp, precip, heights, SLP, storm

tracks, ozone).

monthly None Insights into climate

outlooks / decision


background

Available Oceanic and atmospheric

monitoring products

Intraseasonal monitoring

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

weekly

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RISAs, POCs, ActivitiesRISAs, POCs, Activities

RISA Contacts Area of CollaborationSoutheast Climate Consortium (SECC)

Muthuvel Chelliah

Jim Jones, Keith Ingram, Jim O’Brien

Downscaling CPC Outlooks, Regional ENSO Impacts; Crop Yield Forecasting; Applications of high resolution GCM,CFS hindcasts.

Western Water Assessment (WWA)

Michelle L’Heureux

Andrea Ray

Decision support for drought mitigation and water management.

Climate Assessments for the Southwest (CLIMAS)

Ed O’Lenic

Holly Hartmann

Improve users’ ability to access and interact with, and make decisions based upon CPC outlooks.

Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP)

Jon Gottschalck

Daniel Whitehead, Sarah Fleisher Trainor, James Partain

Storm Track Monitoring, Assessment, and development of prediction-related products on weekly, monthly and seasonal time scales

California Application Program (CAP)

Kingtse Mo

Dan Cayan, John Roads

Soil moisture analyses from 4 NLDASs and regional reanalysis, CFS-based drought forecasts, MME applications to SI forecasts, week 1, week 2 E, P, soil moisture relationships from NLDAS.

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES)

Doug LeComte

Dennis Lettenmaier

Enhancements to U.W. surface water monitor, Improved tools for Drought Monitor and Drought Outlook.

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NDFD: Product Delivery Super Highway

• NDFD is the National Digital Forecast Database. It was developed in response to a National Research Council (NRC) recommendation (2003) that NWS make its data and products available in digital form, using widely recognized standards. The NDFD Concept of Operations has three main precepts:

• 1. The NWS Weather Forecast Office forecaster is the local expert/decision-maker.

• 2. Optimization of information flow between NWS and partners/customers.

• 3. Collaboration among NWS components in building the NDFD.

• 4. Formats available: FTP, http, XML, GML

NDFD vastly improves the accessibility of NWS products to the user community.

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NCEP

R2O

1. GENERALIZED R&D (O2R)

2. O2R: DEVELOP PRODUCTS

3. R2O: OPERATIONALIZE R&D PRODUCTS INTO NDFD

4. PRODUCT DELIVERY – VIA NDFD XML DOCUMENTS

* USERS DIY, OR ENGAGE RISA/PRIVATE ENTERPRISE

5. O2R: USER FEEDBACK LEADS TO NEW R&D REQUIREMENTS

NDFD Products Make Life EasierNDFD Products Make Life Easier

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NCEPis uniquelypositioned

to provide an operational

infra-structure for the transition processes

User Communit

y

R&D Community

OPERATIONSNDFD

1

3

EMCCFS

5

O2R

R2O

4

CTB

CPC

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Questions CPC/POC should answerQuestions CPC/POC should answer

• 1. How do we make the O2R process reliable and formal? 1. How do we make the O2R process reliable and formal?

• 2. What is the metric for “accelerate transition of research into operations”?2. What is the metric for “accelerate transition of research into operations”?

• 3. NDFD applies to FORECAST products. What about other products?3. NDFD applies to FORECAST products. What about other products?

• 4. What other variables should be predicted? Should we make circulation 4. What other variables should be predicted? Should we make circulation forecasts? Should ENSO SST be included? Should the forecast be divided forecasts? Should ENSO SST be included? Should the forecast be divided between the inter-annual and trend components (for the 3-month outlooks)?between the inter-annual and trend components (for the 3-month outlooks)?

• 5. What other questions should we be asking?5. What other questions should we be asking?

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Proposed New ProductsProposed New Products

• Climatological distribution information, including mean and Climatological distribution information, including mean and standard deviation, probability of certain thresholds, limits standard deviation, probability of certain thresholds, limits associated with the 50% and 95% confidence intervals of the associated with the 50% and 95% confidence intervals of the forecast and climatology (on NDFD).forecast and climatology (on NDFD).

• Prototype forecasts for weeks 3, 4 using consolidation of forecasts Prototype forecasts for weeks 3, 4 using consolidation of forecasts from CFS, LIM and other available models with skill histories.from CFS, LIM and other available models with skill histories.

• New ability to assess week 2, 3, 4 extreme event hazards for use in New ability to assess week 2, 3, 4 extreme event hazards for use in U.S. Hazards and Global Hazards AssessmentsU.S. Hazards and Global Hazards Assessments

• Experimental probabilistic seasonal drought outlookExperimental probabilistic seasonal drought outlook

• Experimental implementation of probabilistic precipitation Experimental implementation of probabilistic precipitation forecast tool in the U.S. Hazards Assessmentforecast tool in the U.S. Hazards Assessment

• Interactive crop yield, drought mitigation, water management and Interactive crop yield, drought mitigation, water management and cost/loss tools.cost/loss tools.

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