1 quadrennial defense review ses apex orientation program september 13, 2005

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1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

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Page 1: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

1

Quadrennial Defense Review

SES APEX Orientation Program

September 13, 2005

Page 2: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

2

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

What is the QDR?

Mandated by Congress

DOD’s Capstone Strategic Planning Activity

Principal aim is to develop guidance for “Operationalizing” the National Defense Strategy Shaping the future force

QDR takes a 20-year outlook Recognizes near term demands

QDR Report submitted to Congress in February 2006 Submitted with the President’s FY07 budget request

Page 3: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

3

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Where does QDR fit?

Quadrennial Defense ReviewQuadrennial Defense ReviewQuadrennial Defense ReviewQuadrennial Defense Review

OrganizationalOperational

BudgetBudget

Program Review-POMProgram Review-POM

Capabilities PlanningCapabilities Planning Unified CommandPlan

Unified CommandPlan

Transformation Planning

Transformation Planning

ContingencyPlanning

ContingencyPlanning

Terms of ReferenceTerms of ReferenceTerms of ReferenceTerms of Reference

Resource

National Military StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Military StrategyNational Military Strategy

National Defense StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Defense StrategyNational Defense Strategy

National Security StrategyNational Security StrategyNational Security StrategyNational Security Strategy

SecurityCooperationSecurityCooperation

Strategic ContextStrategic Context

NDS and NMS at www.defenselink.mil/publications

•BRACBRAC

• Global Posture Global Posture ReviewReview

•BRACBRAC

• Global Posture Global Posture ReviewReview

• Studies Studies

(e.g., Mobility)(e.g., Mobility)• Service Initiatives Service Initiatives

(e.g., Modularity)(e.g., Modularity)

• Studies Studies

(e.g., Mobility)(e.g., Mobility)• Service Initiatives Service Initiatives

(e.g., Modularity)(e.g., Modularity)

Page 4: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

4

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

How 2005 QDR differs from past QDRs

The U.S. is a nation at war

Defense Strategy was completed before the QDR kickoff

A “rolling QDR”: executable guidance developed as issues mature during the Review• QDR will inform the FY07 Program Review.

The Department’s force planning construct will be a major QDR output

Inclusive: Outreach to Congress, industry and allies/partners – benefit from their strategic thinking

An integrated, enterprise-wide review with senior-level participation throughout

Page 5: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

5

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

2005 QDR Terms of Reference

Outlined guiding principles and assumptions

Summarized strategy

Provided guidance to operationalize the strategy by considering 4 focus areas

Directed formation of six issue teams

Page 6: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

6

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Guiding Principles and Assumptions

Foster a structured, open and transparent competition of ideas during the Department’s deliberations

Draw upon lessons learned from Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM

Balance near-term operational demands with longer-term challenges and opportunities

Develop executable guidance as issues mature during the QDR, then follow through with execution roadmaps

Treat the Department’s force planning construct as a QDR output rather than an input

Page 7: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

7

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Strategy (1) - Security Challenges

Irregular Non-state and state actors employing

“unconventional” methods to counter stronger state opponents—terrorism, insurgency, etc.

(e.g., terrorism, insurgency, “unrestricted warfare”)

Disruptive Competitors employing technology or

methods that might counter or cancel our current military advantages.

(e.g., technological – bio, cyber, or space war, ultra miniaturization, directed-energy, other – diplomatic blackmail, cultural or economic war)

Traditional States employing military forces in well-

known forms of military competition and conflict.

(e.g., conventional air, sea, and land forces, and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers)

Catastrophic Terrorist or rogue state employment of

WMD or methods producing WMD-like effects against American interests.

(e.g., attack on homeland, global markets, or key ally that would generate a state of shock and preclude normal behavior)

Page 8: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

8

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Strategy (2) - Strategic Evolution

Strategic Capability

High

Moderate

LowPe

rce

ive

d C

ap

ab

ilit

y E

mp

ha

sis

LesserContingencies

FutureNear Peer

Major Theater War

’93 Bottom-Up Review

High

Moderate

LowPe

rce

ive

d C

ap

ab

ilit

y E

mp

ha

sis

LesserContingencies

FutureNear Peer

Major Theater War

’01 QDRHigh

LowPe

rce

ive

d C

ap

ab

ilit

y E

mp

ha

sis

Pe

rce

ive

d C

ap

ab

ilit

y E

mp

ha

sis

LesserContingenciesLesserContingencies

FutureNear Peer

FutureNear Peer

Major Theater WarMajor Theater War

’05 Defense Strategy’05 Defense Strategy

High

Moderate

LowPe

rce

ive

d C

ap

ab

ilit

y E

mp

ha

sis

LesserContingencies

FutureNear Peer

Major Theater War

’97 QDR

Strategic Capability

Strategic CapabilityStrategic CapabilityStrategic Capability

2 MTWs State-on-State Cross Border Conflict

2 MTWs State-on-State Cross Border Conflict

Smaller Scale Contingencies

1-4-2-1

Ungoverned Areas Asymmetric Threats

Future Peer

GWoT / Ungoverned Areas

Irregular Warfare Low-End Asymmetric

1-4-2-1(State-on-State War)

Disruptive Technologies

Superiority in theCommons (Space, Cyber, Seas, Air)

Industrial AgeNear Peer

Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda,Haiti

Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda,Haiti

Citadel I & II Citadel I & II 11 Sept / GWoT OEF / OIF 4 Challenges

11 Sept / GWoT OEF / OIF 4 Challenges

• Desert Storm• Soviet Collapse• Desert Storm• Soviet Collapse

Page 9: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

9

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Four QDR Focus Areas

Centerpiece of QDR effort is assessment of DoD’s wherewithal to address four focus areas:

• Building partnerships to defeat terrorist extremism

• Defending the homeland in-depth

• Shaping the choices of countries at strategic crossroads

• Preventing the acquisition or use of WMD by hostile state or non-state actors

Caveats

• Focus areas are not all inclusive

• Focus areas are not just in the far term

Page 10: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

10

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Six Major Issues

Six Integrated Project Teams examine the following sets of issues in addressing the four focus areas

• Capability Mix

• Joint Enablers (e.g., space, logistics, ISR)

• Roles / Missions and Organizations

• Manning and Balancing the Force

• Business Practices and Processes

• Authorities

A senior civilian and military leader for each issue

Page 11: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

11

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Outreach

QDR Organization

Integration Group Integration Group (PDUSDP, PA&E, J-5, J-8(PDUSDP, PA&E, J-5, J-8

INT

EG

RA

TE

D P

RO

DU

CT

TE

AM

S

Joint Enablers

Capability Mix

Roles, Missions &

Organizations

Manning & Balancing the Force

Business Practices & Processes

Authorities

Opt

ion

Deve

lopm

ent

Recommendations

SecDef⇧

SLRG

SecDef⇧

SLRG

SupportingSupportingIPTIPT

AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources

EnglandGiambastiani

EnglandGiambastiani

SupportingSupportingIPTIPT

AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources

HarveyOdiernoHarveyOdierno

SupportingSupportingIPTIPT

AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources

DuBoisSharp

DuBoisSharp

SupportingSupportingIPTIPT

AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources

ChuWillard

ChuWillard

SupportingSupportingIPTIPT

AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources

KriegMcNabb

KriegMcNabb

SupportingSupportingIPTIPT

AnalysisAnalysisResourcesResources

CamboneMoseley

CamboneMoseley

DepSecDef, VCJCS

⇧QDR Co-Leads

DepSecDef, VCJCS

⇧QDR Co-Leads

Page 12: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

12

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

QDR Phasing and Timelines

QDR TOR

Phase IFirst 4 Roundtables

(Focus Areas)

Phase II36 Issues – TOR/Taskers from 4 Roundtables

& FPC Development

Phase IVPR-07 Program Guidance

Develop Report & SPG

QDR Report,

SPG

SLRG Guidance

(July)

PDM Guidance(Sept-Oct)

Phase IIIMajor Muscle Movement Options, PR-07

Decisions

UNCLASSIFIED

Page 13: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

13

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

QDR Co-Lead Meetings

Co-Lead Meetings:

• Day-long sessions

• Co-chaired by DepSecDef and the VCJCS

• Vice Chiefs, Under Secretaries, all IPT Co-Leads, CoComs, NGB Chief

• Other agencies: State, Justice, DHS

• International allies: Canada, UK, Australia

Objectives:

• Develop a common understanding of major challenges / threats, desired end states and approaches

• Take an unconstrained look at the capabilities the nation needs to meet the major challenges / threats

• Obtain senior leader guidance and priorities

Cornerstone of Strategy-Based, Inclusive, and Unconstrained QDR Cornerstone of Strategy-Based, Inclusive, and Unconstrained QDR

UNCLASSIFIED

Page 14: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

14

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Co-lead meetings considering options in 12 major areas:

• 4 integrated and joint capabilities:

−Air−Ground−Maritime

−Special Operations

• ISR

• Counter WMD

• Tailored Deterrence

• Mobility and Agility

• Persistent ISR / Net Centricity

• Build Partnership Capacity

• Homeland Defense

• Human Capital Strategy

12 QDR Major Muscle MovementsUNCLASSIFIED

Page 15: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

15

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

QDR-2001 construct for shaping / sizing the force (1-4-2-1)

(1) Defend the U.S. homeland

(4) Operate in and from four forward regions

(2) Swiftly defeat adversaries in overlapping military campaigns while(1) preserving for the President a “win decisively” option

Also, be capable of conducting limited number of lesser contingencies (e.g., tsunami relief)

Updating the Force Planning Construct

StrengthsStrengths Post-9/11 ShortcomingsPost-9/11 Shortcomings Introduced Homeland Defense

Associated with forward deterrence

Adapted previous “one size fits all” concept to two broad classes (swift defeat, win decisive)

Maintained ability to fight and win wars swiftly

Does not capture War on Terror nor clearly define Homeland Defense

Limited to forward deterrence in four defined regions

Emphasizes major combat over deterrence, stability operations, and War on Terror

Does not adequately account for duration, scale / intensity and frequency

UNCLASSIFIED

Page 16: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

16

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Next Big Steps

Complete reviews of Major Muscle Movement options

Develop:• QDR Report (Feb 2006)• FY07 budget request (Feb 2006)• Strategic guidance for FY08 and beyond• Implementation Roadmaps• Chairman’s independent risk assessment

Interagency and allied consultation

Roll-out: Congress, allies, industry, public, internal

UNCLASSIFIED

Page 17: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

17

QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Backups

UNCLASSIFIED

Page 18: 1 Quadrennial Defense Review SES APEX Orientation Program September 13, 2005

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QDR Integration

September 13, 2005

Major Events Driving ChangeMajor Events Driving Change

LEGENDLEGEND

Presidential Speeches DoD Reports

US Military Action USG Reports

Terrorist Activity Commission Reports

QDR ‘01 Homeland Security

National Security Strategy

Combating Terrorism Secure Cyberspace Protection of Critical Infrastructures

Weapons of Mass Destruction

9/11 Commission

2005200420032002200120001999

Riyadh London / Egypt

Musharrafassassination

attempts

Bali

Istanbul

USS Cole

9-11 / OEF Afghanistan

QDR’05

Due Feb 06

Citadel Speech I Citadel Speech II

Liberia Haiti

Libya

OIF Iraq

Beslan, Russia

Madrid

Defense Strategy

War on Terrorism Plan

Silberman/Robb (WMD)