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Review of Engineer 2020 Phase I Report

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Phase I: Creating the Vision

• Phase I: Visions and scenarios of engineering practice

• Phase II: Action agenda to shape the future of engineering education; Public comment and feedback

. . . engaged a diverse group of thought and opinion leaders in a series of activities to gather facts, forecast future conditions, and develop future scenarios for the 2020 engineer. Phase I featured a Visioning and Scenario-Development Workshop to synthesize a visions of engineering's future and develop multiple scenarios depicting society's engineering needs. The synthesized visions reflect the aspirations of young people, practicing engineers, and policy makers, balanced by the needs and requirements of society.

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Phase II: Educating the 2020 Engineer

• Phase I: Visions and scenarios of engineering practice

• Phase II: Action agenda to shape the future of engineering education; Public comment and feedback

. . . is to be launched in the summer of 2004, will build on the 2020 vision and lay down the broad strategies needed to meet the education challenges that lie ahead. The primary activity of Phase II will be a national summit of 80 to 100 current and emerging leaders in engineering and engineering education. The summit will issue recommendations for changing the content, delivery, and structure of engineering education, consistent with the needs of 2020 engineers and society.

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Foundational Questions for 2020 Phase I Study

• What will the contextual conditions of engineering practice be in 2020 – technological and societal?

• What are your aspirations for engineering and engineers in 2020?

• What will the critical attributes for engineers be in 2020?

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Engineer 2020 Phase I Workshop

• Background research and surveys

• Woods Hole, MA, Sept. 3-4, 2002

• Industry perspective: Phil Condit, Boeing and Bran Ferren, Disney

• Academic/Government perspective: Dr. Shirley Jackson, President of RPI and former Director of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

• Scenario-based planning: Peter Schwartz, Global Business Networks

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Key Driving Forces in the Next 20 Years

• Technology Context and Trajectories

• Societal, Global and Professional Context of Engineering Practice

• Aspirations and Attributes of Engineers

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Technology Drivers

• Growing complexity, scale, uncertainty, and interdisciplinary characteristics of engineered systems

• The accelerating pace of technological advance: – Bioengineering, biotechnology & biomedical

technology– Information and Communication Technology– Miniaturization (MEMS, nanotechnology, advanced

materials)

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Bioengineering, Biotechnology & Biomedical Technology

• Advances in biotech have already significantly improved the quality of our lives

• More dramatic breakthroughs ahead

• Tissue engineering• Regenerative medicine• Drug delivery engineering• Bio-inspired computing• Protection from biological

terrorism

Korean technique for human DNA extraction.

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Micro/Nanotechnology

• Draws on Multiple Fields– Genetic and molecular

engineering– Composites and engineered

materials– Quantum scale optical and

electrical structures

• Potential Applications– Environmental cleaning agents– Chemical detection agents– Creation of biological (or

artificial) organs– Ultra-fast, ultra-dense, circuits

A factory large enough to make over 10 million nanocomputers per day might fit on the edge one of today’s integrated circuits. - Drexler and Peterson

Grand Challenges in the National Nanotechnology Initiative

Time Frame Strategic Challenges

Nano-Now • Pigments in paints

• Cutting tools and war resistant coatings

• Phamaceuticals and drugs

• Nanoscale particles and thin films in electronic devices

• Jewelry, optimal and semiconductor wafer polishing

Nano-2007 • Biosensors, transducers and detectors

• Functional designer fluids, propellants, nozzles and valves

• Flame retardant additives

• Drug delivery, biomagnetic separation, and wound healing

Nano-2012 • Nano-optical/electronics & power sources

• High-end flexible displays

• NEMS-based devices

• Faster switches and ulta-sensitive sensors

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Materials Science & Photonics

• Smart materials and structures, which have the capability of sensing, remembering & responding (e.g., to displacements caused by earthquakes and explosions; smart textiles provide cooling and heating).

• “As the physical sizes of optical sources decrease, while their power and reliability continue to increase, photonics based technologies will become more significant in engineered products and systems.” Applications: fiber optics, precision cutting, visioning and sensing; photochromic windows.

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Information and Communication Technology

• “Today a 1 gigabit hard drive ships in a package 1’x1’x1/8”; soon that will be a 10 gigabit drive and computers small enough to fit into trouser pockets will be able to contain information that would fill a modern library (Feldman, 2001)”

• "Everything will, in some sense, be 'smart'; every produce, every service and every bit of infrastructure will be attuned to the needs of humans it serves and will adapt its behavior to those needs.”

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Example of Information Explosion in Healthcare

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Technological Challenges

• Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings

• Information and Communications Infrastructures

• Technology for an Aging Population

• The Environment

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The Environment

• Three quarters of the US population resides in areas with unhealthy air. [American Lung Association]

• In 2020, California will need 40% more electrical capacity, 40% more gasoline, and 20% more natural gas than in 2000.

• 50% of the world’s original forest cover has been depleted [Worldwatch Institute] and global per capita forest area is projected to fall to 1/3 its 1990 value by 2020. [Haque, 2000].

• 48 countries (2.8 billion people) face freshwater shortages in 2025 [Henrichsen, 1997]

• The wealthiest 16% of the world consumes 80% of the world’s natural resources. By the year 2020, there will be 8 billion people who will further depleting the environment and fuel political instability if the inequity of these resources continues. [CIA 2001].

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Guiding Principles in Green Engineering (NSF, 2003)

• Engineer processes and products holistically, use systems analysis, and integrate environmental impact assessment tools.

• Conserve and improve natural ecosystems while protecting human health and well-being.

• Use life cycle thinking in all engineering activities.• Ensure that all material and energy inputs and outputs are as inherently

safe and benign as possible. • Minimize depletion of natural resources; strive to prevent waste. • Develop and apply engineering solutions, while being cognizant of

local geography, aspirations and cultures. • Create engineering solutions beyond current or dominant technologies;

improve, innovate and invent (technologies) to achieve sustainability.

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Societal, Global and Professional Context of Engineering Practice

• The pace of technological innovation will continue to be rapid (if not escalating).

• The world in which technology will be deployed will be intensely globally interconnected;

• The individuals who are involved with or affected by technology (e.g., designers, manufacturers, distributors, and users) will be increasingly diverse and multidisciplinary;

• Social, cultural, and political forces will continue to shape and affect the success of technological innovation.

• The presence of technology in our every day lives will be seamless, transparent, and more significant than ever before.

• Consumers will demand more and more: higher quality, mass customization, personalization, etc.

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Socio-technical Transformations

• The mounting “sustainability” imperative in the face of global population growth, industrialization, urbanization, and environment degradation

• Rising concern regarding the social implications of rapid technological advance

• Socio-political tensions around the world• Increased focus on managed risk and assessment

with a view to public security, privacy, and safety• Growing diversity of the workforce

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The Changing Roles of Engineers

• Globalization of industry and engineering practice• The shift of engineering employment from large

companies to small and medium-sized companies, and the growing emphasis on entrepreneurialism

• The growing share of engineering employment in non-traditional, less-technical engineering work (e.g., management, finance, marketing, policy)

• The shift to a knowledge-based “services” economy• Increasing opportunity for using technology in the

education and work of the engineer

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Engineers in the Global Economy

QuickTime™ and aDV/DVCPRO - NTSC decompressorare needed to see this picture.

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The Nations New Majority

Women and under-represented groups make up a 1/2 to 2/3 of the population of the United States and comprise the nation’s New Majority.

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The Nations New Majority

White / Asian93.2%

Black3.4% Hispanic

3.1%

Other0.3%

White / Asian93.2%

Black3.4% Hispanic

3.1%

Other0.3%

White / Asian79.1%

Black10.7%

Hispanic10.1%

Other0.1%

White / Asian79.1%

Black10.7%

Hispanic10.1%

Other0.1%

Science and Engineering Workforce U.S. Workforce

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The World Population (CIA, 2001)

• A mix of 100 people in 2020 would look like the following:– 56 would be from Asia, including

19 Chinese and 17 Indians– 13 would be from the western

hemisphere, including 4 from the United States

– 16 would be from Africa, including 13 from Sub-Saharan Africa

– 3 would be from the Middle East– 7 would be from Eastern Europe

and the former Soviet Union– 5 would be from Western Europe

Distribution of World Population in 2020 - In a Mix of 100 People:

56%

13%

16%

3%

7%

5%Asia (19-China; 17-India)

Western Hemisphere (4from US)

Africa (13-Sub-Sahara)

Middle East

Eastern Europe &Former Soviet Union

Western Europe

• In contrast to the aging of the US, Europe and Japan, the most politically instable parts of the world will experience a “youth bulge”.

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Results from a Survey of NAEFrontiers of Engineering Alumni

• Frontiers of Engineering participants– Carefully selected as future leaders in engineering– Mostly young – 30 to 45, (will be active in 2020)– 61 respondents from academia, 44 from industry– Respondents on average have worked in field

(industry/academia) for over 10 years– Involved in cutting edge engineering topics

• Intent was not to make recommendations on curricula – but to assess how well their education had prepared them for the issues they will face in engineering practice out to 2020

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Q2. Current undergraduate engineering education is sufficiently flexible to adequately meet the needs of 21st century engineers.

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Agree Neutral Disagree StronglyDisagree

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Q4. Which topics should receive increased coverage in the undergraduate engineering curriculum?

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Most Significant Issues Facing Engineers Today

Industry Respondents on Most Significant Issues:• Instabilities in the job market• Maintaining technical currency• Difficulty managing interdisciplinary problems

Industry Respondents on Most Significant Problems:

• Problems associated with the environment• Managing globalization• Challenges brought on by advances in computing

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Problems Engineers Will be Solving in 2020

• Environmental and energy related problems

• Bioengineering problems (including medical)

• Ultra-nanoscale, miniaturization

• Problems related to population growth

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Additional Themes from Focus Groups

• Focus group held with volunteer participants from ASEE workshop on feminist pedagogy in engineering education

• Focus group held with volunteer participants from ASEE Minorities in Engineering Division (MIND)

• Surveys distributed to participants of NSF workshop on community college articulation

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Themes from Feminist Focus Group

– A change in the culture of engineering (practice) is desired

• Less unrewardingly competition, more collaboration (many contributors with an equal voice)

• Changes in the types of problems we decide to solve• Diversity and quality are seen as complementary• Greater value placed on family issues• Engineers genuinely pursue inclusiveness

– Strategies to get there• Radical change in the power structure (as it relates to who

decides what problems are important)• Decision-makers represent a more diverse group• Coalitions between public/private sector

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Themes from Minority Focus Group

– Changes in culture and better equity is desired• More emphasis on problems that address social and/or

humanistic issues• Diversity is valued • More equitable access to engineering careers

– Strategies for getting there• Include more diverse voices in decision-making process • Positive images in the television media• Strong and visible action by national political leadership• New strategies for assessment; more equitable K-12

preparation; allow alternative paths into the profession

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Aspirations for the Engineer 2020: Our Image and the Profession

• “By 2020, we aspire to a public that will understand and appreciate the profound impact of the engineering profession on social-cultural systems, the full spectrum of career opportunities accessible through an engineering education, and the value of an engineering education to engineers working successfully in non-engineering jobs.”

• “We aspire to a public that will recognize the union of professionalism, technical knowledge, social and historical awareness, and traditions that serve to make engineers competent to address the world's complex and changing challenges.”

• "We aspire to engineers in 2020 who will remain well grounded in the basics of math and science, and . . . in the humanities, social sciences, and economics."

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Aspirations for the Engineer 2020: Engineering Without Boundaries

• “We aspire to an engineering profession that will rapidly embrace the potentialities offered by creativity, invention, and cross-disciplinary fertilization to create and accommodate new fields of endeavor, including those that require openness to interdisciplinary efforts with non-engineering disciplines such as science, social science and business.

• By 2020, we aspire to engineers who will assume leadership positions from which they can serve as positive influences in making of public policy and in the administration of government and industry.

• We aspire to an engineering profession that will effectively recruit, nurture and welcome underrepresented groups to its ranks.

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Aspirations for the Engineer 2020: Engineering a Sustainable Society

• “It is our aspiration that engineers will continue to be leaders in the movement towards use of wise, informed and economical, sustainable development. This should begin in our educational institutions and be founded in the basic tenets of the engineering profession and its actions.

• We aspire to a future where engineers are prepared to adapt to changes in global forces and trends and to ethically assist the world in creating a balance in standard of living for developing and developed countries alike.

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Aspirations for the Engineer 2020: Education of the Engineer 2020

• “It is our aspiration that engineering educators and practicing engineers together undertake a proactive effort to prepare engineering education to address the technology and societal challenges and opportunities of the future. . . we should reconstitute engineering curricula and related educational programs to prepare today’s engineers for the careers of the future, with due recognition of the rapid pace of change in the world, and its intrinsic lack of predictability.”

• “Our aspiration is to shape the engineering curriculum for 2020 so as to be responsive to the disparate leaning styles of different student populations and attractive for all those seeking a full and well-rounded education that prepares a young persons to be creative and productive life and positions of leadership.”

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Successful Attributes for the Engineer of 2020

• Possess strong analytical skills• Exhibit practical ingenuity; posses creativity• Good communication skills with multiple stakeholders• Business and management skills; Leadership abilities• High ethical standards and a strong sense of professionalism• Dynamic/agile/resilient/flexible• Lifelong learners• Ability to frame problems, putting them in a sociotechnical

and operational context (Ruth David)

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Scenario-based Planning

• The idea behind scenario-based planning is to tell possible stories about the future to frame one’s thinking.

• Good scenario planning expands our peripheral vision and forces us to examine our assumptions, and to practice what we would do if “the unthinkable happened” – a condition that happens more often than one might imagine.”

• “More importantly the test of a good scenario is not whether it portrays the future accurately, but whether it enables a mechanism for learning and adapting.”

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Scenarios

• The next scientific revolution

• The biotechnology revolution in a societal context

• The natural world interrupts the technology cycle

• Global conflict or globalization?

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Foundational Questions for 2020 Study

• What will the contextual conditions of engineering practice be in 2020 – technological and societal?

• What are your aspirations for engineering and engineers in 2020?

• What will the critical attributes for engineers be in 2020?

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Review of Engineer 2020 Phase I Report