1

Risk Factors

Let choose a person-induced hazard first. The following are risk factors for an airplane crash:

A study completed by the International Civil Aviation Organization in 1981, found that the larger the aircraft, the less likely it is to crash so places in the flight path of large aircraft are less likely to be impacted by a crash.

2

Risk Factors

Since most air accidents occur on or near airports, airports and areas with large numbers of flights are clearly more at risk.

3

Risk Factors

Areas near flight paths which are near mountains are more at risk.

Areas near flight paths which are near areas of poor weather visibility are more at risk.

Areas near air craft training stations.

4

Risk Factors

Areas near military missile and artillery training areas.

Areas near air shows.

Therefore there are seven factors that have been found to have an influence as to whether or not a particular area is more or less likely to experience an air crash.

5

Risk Factors

For each area in the community, the HIRV committee would then determine whether or not the risk factors would apply to that particular area.

While the risk to a small communities, or a number of areas in close to proximity to each other may be the same, in other cases it will be quite different.

6

Risk Factors

Depending on the number of risk factors that have been identified, the HIRV Committee would then record whether or not 3 out of 7, or 6 out of 7, etc. factors have been identified.

7

Risk Factors

After carefully considering the risk factors, the committee should delete hazards that have no possibility of occurring in the community (this does not, of course, include hazards for which information is unknown). For example, an inland community surrounded by flat prairie land could safely delete tsunamis and avalanches from its list of potential hazards.

8

Risk Factors

The risk factors that are marked indicate the risk to the community. Experts on the committee can advise HIRV committee members as to the importance of the risk factors, depending upon local conditions. For example, the fact that a landslide has previously occurred in the area is so significant that even in the absence of many other factors, it may indicate a strong likelihood of a future landslide (United Nations Disaster Relief Organization 1991).

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Risk Factors

Risk factors are an important tool in ensuring that community stakeholders have access to adequate data. As risk factors are identified, they will assist in determining exactly why a particular hazard is more (or less) likely to occur in a particular area.

10

Risk Factors

Let’s look at the risk factors for another hazard: Hazardous Material Spills - in situ.

Many industrial sites contain large amounts of toxic hazardous materials. Areas close to sites where dangerous substances are being handled in a quantity that could cause a serious accident.

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Risk Factors

Generally speaking chemicals stored under pressure (greater than ambient pressure) pose a greater threat to employees, the community, and the environment than those not under pressure

12

Risk Factors

Although disagreement prevails concerning what constitutes a safe distance from a chemical plant, a distance of 2,000 feet has been considered as fatality free from flying fragments in 99% of plant explosions. The same source indicates that a distance of 4,900 feet or over is 100% safe, although the implementation of such a standard would probably not be economically feasible

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Risk Factors

Areas near sites where hazardous materials have been stored for long periods of time.

Areas in proximity to deteriorating hazardous material storage containers or buildings.

Areas in proximity to large-scale chemical plants; especially if the area has large fluctuations in temperature and weather conditions.

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Risk Factors

In the recent past, a material of increasing concern has been polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Areas around PCB storage sites are at risk.

Previous hazardous materials spills have occurred in the area.

Areas in proximity of fixed sources of hazardous wastes and waste disposal sites.

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Risk Factors

Areas near forest mills which have large quantities of anti-sapstains, a group of chemicals similar in chemical composition to PCBs which are applied to wood to prevent staining of timber in storage or transport.

Areas in the proximity of active pulp and paper mills which contain a number of serious pollutants which may contaminate the ocean and the air.

16

Risk Factors

Once valuable ores are extracted from the earth during mining processes, the remaining ore is discarded as waste rock or tailings. Areas near these sites can be at risk.

Areas in proximity to local municipal or regional garbage dumps.

17

Risk Factors

Increased patients care produces a growing amount of biomedical or infectious wastes. For a number of years, these wastes were dumped in municipal landfills. Wastes are often stockpiled for several days between collections, a concentration of wastes which presents a threat to regional health, in the case of earthquake, flood, or other disaster.

18

Risk Factors

Areas in proximity to nuclear power plants.

Areas in proximity to run-down areas susceptible to large urban fires.

Lack of inspection of sites and willingness to enforce regulations for the storage of and training in the use of hazardous materials.

Storage of radioactive and toxic materials (e.g. plutonium).

19

Risk Factors

In this case there are 18 primary risk factors.

In most cases the greater the number of risk factors that exist, the greater the likelihood of a hazard occurring. But again, it is important to involve the experts.