1 scenario formulation scenario-based planning is a structured way of thinking about what might...

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Scenario formulation

Scenario-based planning is a structured way of thinking about what might happen in the future

Scenarios are descriptions of possible futures– NOT predictions – to help us to test and compare likely

outcomes of different decisions or trends For BDP, scenarios describe possible changes

related to water resources over the next 5 to 20 years

DemandsConsumptiveAgriculture

Culture fisheries

Water supplyEnvironmental

In-streamFish

Salinity controlEnergy

Navigation

Climate

Sea level rise

Increased dry season

demands

Higher drought risk

Increased flood flows and

frequencies

Infrastructure

Dams

Irrigation and drainage

Flood control

Salinity control

Dredging and river works

Water supply and sanitation

Management practices

Catchment management

Energy production

Irrigation husbandry

Fisheries management

Pollution control

Changes affecting water resourcesScenario components

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Scenario Components

Current water resources conditions (baseline) Key water related sectors Trends and risks affecting water resources

– predictable (population, irrigation growth)– uncertain (climate change)

Possible interventions and developments

Demands Climate Infrastructure Management practices

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Sub-areas and scenarios

BDP is building regional scenarios based on sub-area studies– to ensure local issues

and concerns are included

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Sub-areas and scenarios

Sub-area studies provide scenario components for each sub-area:– trends and risks– proposed projects and programs– key issues and sectors

Sub-area scenarios components form the building blocks for regional scenarios

Identify common issues, trends, sectors from all sub-areas AND basin-wide or trans-boundary issues

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Sub-area to region

BUT Not all issues that are important at sub-area

level have regional significance– eg salinity in NE Thailand is very important at local

scales – but impacts do not (yet) reach the Mekong Scenarios for sub-areas may not be relevant

to the whole region Sub-area analysis and scenario components

are ESSENTIAL – sub-area scenarios are optional

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Regional scenarios

Regional scenarios put together – regionally significant trends, issues, risks

from each sub-area– proposed projects and programs from

each sub-area (cumulative effects)– regional projects and programs

Build regional scenarios from sub-area scenario components– not by combining sub-area scenarios

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BDP Scenarios

BDP will need to consider MANY scenarios Large number of exploratory runs to establish

major hydrological patterns / constraints– Analysis mainly of hydrological parameters– Sensitivity analysis

Smaller number of “full” runs– Include social and economic analysis– Much of social and economic analysis may take

place outside the DSF

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Scenario Formulation - the key stepsAgreed at Regional Forum in August 2003

1. Collect regional and sub-area data2. Analyse for water-related issues, trends, risks3. Identify potential water-related developments4. Estimate size range for each trend, development, risk5. Estimate regional significance of water-related impacts

for each trend, development, risk6. Assemble scenarios (groups of possibilities) from the

above components7. Test outcomes of scenarios against assessment

criteria using DSF or other means8. Repeat 6 and 7 until feasible and acceptable scenarios

are found

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Convert scenario to model formats where possible…….

Scenario definition and reporting in the DSFE.1 Scenario

ObjectiveFor each planning issue, planners define a scenario objective that states what is to be tested against which potential sectoral interests

E.2 Scenario Components

Agreement is reached between the DSF modelling team and planners on the scenario’s components, i.e. hydrological conditions, prevailing demands and interventions in place

E.3 Relevant trans-boundary issues by Sector

The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners which relevant issues are to be investigated when running the scenario

E.4 Indicators relevant to trans-boundary issues

The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners which indicators are to be tested for each selected trans-boundary issue

E.5 Tools for testing changes in indicators

The DSF modelling team selects the tools required to test the selected indicators

E.6 Reporting The DSF modelling team agrees with the planners how information on each indicator is to be reported

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Convert scenario to model formats where possible…….

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….or just think it through

with expert help

eg water quality

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Assessing Scenarios

Outcomes of different scenarios are assessed and compared against regional planning goals using assessment criteria and indicators / targets– does the scenario meet development goals?– does it obey WUP Rules?– are key Basin assets protected (fisheries,

water quality)?– how does it compare with other scenarios?

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Comparing and ranking options

Comparison of options is complex Objectives may not be fully compatible

– eg maximum economic return vs conservation of resources

Outcomes may not be comparable– eg environmental damage vs social good

Trade-offs may be required– Negotiation and consultation

Multi-criteria assessment

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Using scenarios

Identify preferred development options– define strategies for Basin development– identify the types of projects and programs

required Determine acceptable trade-offs between

development and resource protection– define the amount of potential development

available before unacceptable degradation of the river occurs

– set minimum flow rules

1 scenario formulation scenario-based planning is a structured way of thinking about what might...

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