1 simulation of climate change impact on lowland …...mekong river commission 2nd mekong climate...

Simulation of Climate Change Impact on Lowland Paddy Rice

Production Potential in Savannakhet Province, Laos

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By Somkhit BOULIDAM

Mekong River Commission2nd Mekong Climate Change Forum

6 – 8 October 2014Siem Reap, Cambodia

Outline

Topic 1: IntroductionTopic 2: Literature ReviewTopic 3: Materials and MethodsTopic 4: Results and DiscussionsTopic 5: Conclusions and recommendations

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Introduction

Background The influence of global climate change on future agriculture

production as well as rice is one of the most significant issues in Asia (Araus et al., 2011).

Agriculture plays a most important role in the economy as well as for farmer’s livelihood in Laos 51 % of GDP and employs 86% of the total labor.

Low land paddy rice production in Laos has been affected by climate variability leading often to lower production

Therefore, it is an important issue to investigate how rice productivity performs in term of impacts of climate change, and to develop guide information for farmer’s adaptation options.

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Introduction Cont’

Objectives 1). To estimate the impacts of climate change to

rice production in a rice growing region of Savannakhet province

2). To explore adaption options of local farmers to climate change

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Introduction Cont’

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II. Literature Review

Countries Tem+1oC, +2oC, and +3oC

1.5 x CO2 2 x CO2 GFDL, GISS, UKMO

India (Main )

Second season

+4% per +1oC

+16% per +1oC

+28.8%

No Effect

+45.2%

No Effect

+8.8 to 40.2%

-18 to +40.2%

China -5.2 to -8.2% per +1oC incr.

--- 34 to 41% -4.5 to +16%

Philippines -4.4 to -10.3%

--- +30% -11.5 to +7.3%

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III. Materials and Methods

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Study area

Study area: 21,774 km2- Location of study: 16o 33’ N, 104o45’E, altitude of 144 m.Rice cultivar: 194,157 ha (21.48%) of total rice cultivar in whole country (DOA, 2009)

Map of Laos (http://www.psywarrior.com/LaosPSYOP.html)



Materials and Methods Cont’

Application of The Decision Support System for AgrotechnologyTransfer (DSSAT) crop model.

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Climate Change ScenariosGCMs: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO-Mk3.0 or CSMK3), Hadley Centre Coupled Model v.3 (HadCM3), and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM).

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Climate Scenarios Affiliation

CSMK3 – High Sensitivity CSHI

CSMK3 – Low Sensitivity CSLO

HadCM3 – High Sensitivity HCHI

HadCM3 – Low Sensitivity HCLO

HadGEM – High Sensitivity HGHI

HadGEM – Low Sensitivity HGLO

High: SRES A2Low: SRES B1

CO2 concentrations considering a change in every five years were data put... (current year 390 pmm 2010




Simulation and Analysis Model validation… to compare with baseline (1976-

2009). There are six scenarios (CSHI, CSLO, HCHI, HCLO,

HGHI, and HGLO) of rice yield simulation for 100 years (2001 to 2100)

Three analysis periods 2001-2030, 2035-2065 and 2070-2100

The rate of N-Fertilization applied and its yield effect

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Results and Discussions

To will increase between +0.64oC and +2.40oC

The average highest maximum of 34.62oC till 2100 (HCHI) it is still in the range of air temperatures for rice growing conditions not over 36oC (Linquist et al., 2005)

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25.00

26.00

27.00

28.00

29.00

30.00

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

2061

2066

2071

2076

2081

2086

2091

2096

Years

Ave

rage

tem

pera

ture

(o C)

CSHI CSLO HCHI HCLOHGHI HGLO Ave-HI Ave-LOLinear (Ave-HI) Linear (Ave-LO)

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

2061

2066

2071

2076

2081

2086

2091

2096

Years

Prec

ipita

tion

(mm

/yea

r)

CSHI CSLO HCHI HCLO HGHI HGLO Ave Linear (Ave)

- The prec.: -1.03% to +11.39% (compared with baseline)- Solar radiation were diverse range -2.99% to + 2.19%



Results and Discussions Cont’

Crop model validation

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That’s good agreement…and acceptation for model validation (<15% deviation)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Simulation Report-Stac

Simulation 3072 3237 3263 3456 3375 3294 3021 3088 3251 3346 3365 3356 3426 3415 3543

Report-Stac 1510 1700 2620 2780 3120 3300 3430 3436 3000 3350 3320 3310 3450 3490 3530

1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

-8.17%

0.19%

11.93%10.14%

-8.73%

0.11%

-1.36%-1.40%

0.71%2.14%

-0.36%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Different of observation and simulation yields (%)

Simulated rice yield and the riceyield statistics from Agricultureand Forestry Department (1976-2009) kg/ha on province yields.




The six scenarios of simulated rice yield in 21st to compare with observe years (1995 to 2009)

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Climate factors

Rice yields (kg/ha) Average of growing (days)

% change of rice yields Max Min Mean

Obsv. year 5974 1490 3340 148 CSHI 6902 1599 3695 136 11.43CSLO 6540 1632 3541 143 6.77HCHI 6876 1579 3713 134 11.98HCLO 6470 1635 5347 143 6.95HGHI 6898 1602 3738 135 12.72HGLO 6528 1659 3548 143 7




Yields levels of three different periods

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3400

3450

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

3750

3800

CSHI CSLO HCHI HCLO HGHI HGLO

Scenarios

Ric

e yi

elds

pro

duct

ion

(kg/

ha)

1 (2001-2030) 2 (2035-2065) 3 (2070-2100)




The rate of N-fertilization applied and its yield effect

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

136

137

138

139

Beginning of grain fill to maturity (days)

Gra

in y

ield

s (k

g/ha

)

Non NN 30kg/haN 60 kg/haN 90kg/haN 120kg/ha

NRRP experiment the rice grain yield could increase significantly when > 60kg/ha N applied…the average of effect range 0 to 38kg rice yield/1kg of N (Linquist et al., 2005). Our study range 0 to 37kg rice yield/1kg of N

TDK1 varieties increased up to about 5,000 kg/ha with applied N 120 kg/ha (Inthavong et al., 2004). Our study range between 5,937 to 6,246 kg/ha with applied 120kg/ha of N




Adaptation to climate change impacts on lowland paddy rice

Adjustment of N-fertilization applied The rate of N-fertilizer applied is efficiency on grain yields… However,

differences seed varieties are different stress tolerant

Cultivar adjustment Majority of farmers have been already adapted somehow of seed variety

with high yield potential (e.g TDK1), and can be expected as well under climate change scenarios would get high yield potential as shown in our study

Farming practice adaptations Positive impact…

However, this study not cover diseases, and pet insect damage…so, it could be increased when drought appear… another problem our study not access flash flood …e.g 2011.

Sifting cultivar, and enhance mechanism in shorter times rice planting

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Discussions In comparison with previous studies by Inthavong et al. (2004)… an

increased CO2 to 720 ppm, causes a moderate decline and negative impact of TDK1 rice cultivar…

Other studies (Yoshida., 1976; Amien et al., 1999) rice still would be tolerant to an amount of CO2 between 1500 ppm to 2000 ppm.

Study from Bannayan et al (2004): the growth enhancement by elevated CO2 was less significant for low N-fertilization low to high rate (4g ,8g, and 12g/m2), the yields increased by 7%, 14% and 15%; compared with Inthavong et al. (2004) without applied NPK , and with our study with average of N-fertilization rate of 6 g/m2, our results confirm the low CO2 fertilizing effect of sub-optimum N-fertilization.

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Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions The trend of climate change signal will increased in

21st century due to difference climate scenarios (+0.64oC to +2.40oC)

The rice yields simulation will increase between +6.77 to 12.72% compared with the base line (1995-2009).

Adaptation alternatives: Farming themselves adaptation…

Another organizations concerned

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Conclusions and Recommendations

Limitation of the study Lack of observation data (farming practice, genotype

factors..)

Recommendations Should be included more cultivars representing also early

and medium rice varieties. Up land rice cultivation should be simulated Further long term field experiments should be established

with a selected range of cultivars to support such modeling activities with input and calibration data.

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Thank you

1 simulation of climate change impact on lowland …...mekong river commission 2nd mekong climate...

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