1 sovereign wealth funds and financial market stability oslo, 20 may 2008 martin skancke director...
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1
Sovereign Wealth Funds and financial market stability
Oslo, 20 May 2008
Martin SkanckeDirector General
Asset Management Department
2
Norwegian Ministry of Finance
The petroleum sector in relation to the Norwegian economy
Source: Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance
25 % 38 % 24 % 51 %
The petroleum sector’s share of GDP
The petroleum sector’s share of state revenues
The petroleum sector’s share of total investments
The petroleum sector’s share of total exports
3
Norwegian Ministry of Finance
PFG is among the largest (and fastest growing) funds in the world-The Fund’s market value. Billion USD, year end.
Source: Ministry of Finance
0
200
400
600
1996 1999 2002 2005 20080
200
400
600 • The Norwegian fund, USD 375bn and growing, a tool for: long-term petroleum wealth
management short and medium term
stabilization
• The Norwegian petroleum fund model: integrated with fiscal budget invested only abroad transparency
4
Norwegian Ministry of Finance
Strong increase in pension expenditure is a challenge for public finances
• Calls for a cautious fiscal policy over the next decades
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2015 2024 2033 2042 2051 20600
5
10
15
20
25
Pensions
Expected real return of the Fund
Pension expenditure and expected real return on the Fund as share of mainland GDP
Source: Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance
5
Norwegian Ministry of Finance
Return on fund investments
Fund Transfer to finance non-oil budget deficit
Revenues
Expenditures
State Budget
The Fund mechanism – integrated with fiscal policy
Fiscal policy guideline(over time spend real return of the fund,
estimated at 4%)
Petroleum revenues
6
Norwegian Ministry of Finance
Pension Fund - Global Governance Structure
Ministry of Finance
Regulations
Performance reports
Central Bank
(NBIM)
Norwegian Parliament
Pension Fund Act
Performance reports and strategic changes reported in National Budgets and National Accounts
Legislator
Principal
Manager
Management agreement
Office of the Auditor General
Norges Bank AuditAdvisors
Advisory / consultancy agreement
Founded on Act, regulations and separate contracts
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Norwegian Ministry of Finance
Norway’s fund: Key features
• Aim: Maximize financial returns
• Financial investor with non-strategic holdings
• Separation of roles between owner and operational manager
• High degree of transparency
• Ethical guidelines that are transparent and predictable, based on internationally recognized standards
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Norwegian Ministry of Finance
The value of SWFs
• Free capital movements Allow capital exporters to
- decouple consumption and current revenues- improve risk/return ratio on savings
Allow capital importers to- decouple investments and domestic savings- improve productivity through productive investments
Misguided regulation and protectionism is detrimental to us all
• SWFs may contribute to increased stability in financial markets Long time-horizon No liabilities Little or no need for liquidity in the short term
9
Norwegian Ministry of Finance
Our rebalancing strategy means that we buy in falling markets
Source: Norges Bank
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
jan
feb
mar ap
rm
ai jun jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
des
jan
feb
mar ap
rm
ai jun jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
des
jan
feb
mar ap
rm
ai jun jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
des
jan
feb
mar
apr
mai jun jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
des
jan
feb
mar
apr
mai jun jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
des
jan
feb
mar
apr
mai
jun jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
des
jan
feb
mar ap
rm
aiju
n jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
des
jan
feb
mar ap
rm
ai jun jul
aug
sep
okt
nov
des
jan
feb
mar apr
mai jun jul
aug
sep
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Pu
rch
ases
in N
OK
bn
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Pri
ce in
dex
, 97:
12=
100
Equities
Equity price
Average
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Norwegian Ministry of Finance
Norway’s position in the debate on SWF
• We support the cooperative effort, facilitated by the IMF, of identifying and drafting a set of voluntary, generally accepted principles and practices for SWF. transparency a key issue
• Furthermore, we support the OECD’s work on providing guidance to recipient countries on SWF investments. openness to investment and equal treatment of investors a
fundamental principle legitimate concerns related to national security
• We see no cause for regulations that would restrict the present investment activities of our Fund, or any regulation imposing restrictions on SWF over and above those applying to non-SWF investors