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Statistics South Africa

Work Programme: 2012/13

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Content

• Introduction

• Strategic Plan: 2010 - 2014

• Work programme: 2012/13o Economic statistics subsystemo Social statistics subsystem

• Future expansion: 2013/14 – 2014/15

• Conclusion

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Introduction

• South Africa suffers triple challenge of unemployment, inequality and poverty

• Modern states require systems of evidence to bring about desired change

o System of planning – roadmap to achieve long-term goalso System of statistics – provides evidence to:

Inform planning Monitor progress Evaluate performance

• Platform for a planning, monitoring and evaluation environment is adequately anticipated in the Stats Act o Section 14 introduces statistical coordination within the South

African National Statistics System (SANSS)

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Strategic Plan: 2010 - 2014

• Overarching strategic goal: Expanding the statistical information base by increasing the supply of official statistics to inform evidence based decisions

• Strategic shifto Addressing the statistical information gapo Addressing the quality gapo Addressing the skills gap

• Key deliverables of the strategyo Broadening the role and reach of official statisticso Growth through coordinationo Enhanced qualityo Sustained capacityo Doing more with the same

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Strategic Plan: 2010 -2014Strategy Implementation Phases

Phase Year Strategic focus Enablers

1 2010/11 – 2011/12

Built social statistics capability – national footprint established

Census 2011

Built governance and administrative capability – expanded corporate services at HO and PO

Adequate funding received to build capacity to deliver on census and other household surveys

2 2012/13 Deliver Census 2011 resultsImproved price statistics

Maintain and consolidate the social statistics surveysInitiate future expansion

Internal reprioritisation not sufficient to sustain strategy beyond 2012/13

3 2013/14 – 2014/15

Expansion of Economic statistics

Expansion of registers and frames

Coordination of statistics and building statistical capacity

Expansion – additional funding must be secured through MTEF

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Key breakthroughs:

• Conducted Census 2011

• Improved methodologies and surveys• Price statistics (CPI, PPI, IES), life circumstances, service delivery and

poverty (LCS, QLFS, VOC)• Expansion and coordination of quality statistics through South African

Statistical Quality Assessment Framework (SASQAF)

• Improved survey operations• Established corporate data processing (scanning technology, warehouse)• Established statistical infrastructure in the provinces (56 regional collections

points)

• Improved governance and administration• 5 consecutive unqualified audit opinions

Phase 1: Statistical development in Stats SA

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Development outcomes Statistical themes(Universe of statistics)

System of Statistics

Decent employment through inclusive economic growth

Environmental assets and natural resources that are well protected and continually enhanced

Economic growthEconomic statistics subsystem

Prices

Sustainable resource management

Employment, job creation and decent work

Sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life

An efficient, competitive and responsive economic infrastructure network

Life circumstances, service delivery and poverty

Social statistics subsystem

All people in SA are and feel safe Safety and security

A long and healthy life for all SA Health

Improved quality of basic education Education

Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities with food security for all

Rural development, food security and land reform

All development outcomes Population dynamics

Phase 2: Work programme 2012/13Addressing the priorities

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Phase 2: Work programme 2012/13Stats SA response (partial)

System of Statistics

Statistical theme Plans for 2012/13

Economic statistics subsystem

Economic growth Publish monthly, quarterly, annual and periodic industry statistics

Prices Publish re-engineered PPI and updated CPI

Publish IES

Sustainable resource management

Compile discussion documents on environment and sustainable resource management

Employment, job creation and decent work

Publish quarterly labour statistics

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Phase 2: Work programme 2012/13Stats SA response (partial)

System of Statistics

Statistical theme Plans for 2012/13

Social statistics subsystem

Life circumstances, service delivery and poverty

Publish results of annual GHS

Publish results of IES

Population dynamics Publish census results by November 2012

Publish monthly and annual vital statistics

Administrative sources - Statistical coordination and support (Civil Registration and Vital Statistics)

Safety and security Publish results of Victims of Crime Survey

Administrative sources - Statistical coordination and support

Health Administrative sources - Statistical coordination and support

Education Administrative sources - Statistical coordination and support

Rural development, food security and land reform

Publish annual GHS results

Funding of key priorities up to 2012/13

Financial year

Allocations Accomodation Census Baseline Year on Year changes in allocations

% Changes in baseline allocation

R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'0002008/09 1 323 146 57 621 61 496 1 204 0292009/10 1 555 781 43 362 290 821 1 221 598 17 569 1%2010/11 1 694 866 71 575 618 687 1 004 604 -216 994 -18%2011/12 3 730 127 96 230 2 201 091 1 432 806 428 202 43%2012/13 1 721 604 75 118 85 359 1 561 127 128 321 9%2013/14 1 733 018 80 030 5 646 1 647 342 86 215 6%2014/15 1 975 571 223 823 0 1 751 748 104 406 6%

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• Release Census 2011

• Improved price statistics

• Release re-engineered PPI

• Release re-weighted and rebased CPI

• Maintain and consolidate the social statistics surveys• Life circumstances, service delivery and poverty (GHS,

IES, DTS, LCS, QLFS, VOC)

Key priorities: 2012/13Building and expanding the SANSS

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• Successfully concluded field operations and data processing started

• 14 million questionnaires being processed in a 24/7 operation at 120

000 completed per day

• 1200 staff deployed at the processing centre

• Processing of an independent post enumeration survey (PES)

ongoing

• Five percent firewall processing completed

• Council has appointed a team of national and international experts to

evaluate the census

• Massive operation for dissemination of results in print and electronic

media to the public

Key priorities: 2012/13Release of Census 2011 Results: End September 2012

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Initiate future expansion

• Create an enabling regulatory environment for statistical production and

coordination

• Build and maintain spatial information frame

• Business registration reform

• Integrate communication, marketing and stakeholder relations

• Integrate survey operations

• Participate in statistical development in Africa

• Build statistical capacity

Key priorities: 2012/13Building and expanding the SANSS

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The future: 2013/14 – 2014/15

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Phase 3: Expansion 2013/14 – 2014/15

• Expand and improve economic statistics o National Accountso International Standard Industrial Classificationo Agriculture statisticso Environmental Economic Accounts

• Expand and improve registers and frameso Business registration reformo Spatial information frameo Administrative sources

• Coordinate statistical production and build capacityo SAPSo Educationo Civil registration and vital statisticso ISIbalo training institute

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Phase 3: Risks and constraints

Phase 3: Lack of funding impacts on the implementation of the strategy

Implementation of statistical benchmarks constrained• Quality of macroeconomic and social indicators will deteriorate over time

o SNA2008 and ISIC4 international standards affects statistical information on economic growth, price stability, and employment and job creation

o If current status continues – statistics will become inaccurate and irrelevant

• Impact: International trade, competitiveness, economic growth, policy development

Implementation of statistical coordination (Section 14 of Stats Act) hampered• State planning, monitoring and decision-making will continue to be

based on poor statistical informationo More than 400 external data sources – potential official statistics

Statistical support and advice to organs of state on administrative records

Designate statistics as official to certify quality is required

• Building statistical capacity in the SANSS limited

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Phase 3: Risks and constraints (2)

Phase 3: Lack of funding impacts on the implementation of the strategy

Reverse gains achieved in establishing statistical infrastructure

• Statistical infrastructure (national footprint) cannot be sustainedo Provincial, district and satellite offices cannot be sustainedo Master sample cannot be maintainedo Decentralisation initiatives to be discontinuedo IEC/LCS cycle and methodology cannot be sustained

• Impact: Household survey programme and CPI basket

Phase 3: Risks and constraints (2)Funding Request

MTEF ask 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15Improving Economic Statistics 90 051 217 904 233 552 Statistics Coordination 30 391 71 600 108 830 Statistics Infrastructure 44 900 56 950 59 798 Offi ce accomodation 39 640 46 203 54 025

Total 204 982 392 657 456 205

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Delivery of the strategy

• Stats SA has built the engine to deliver on the strategy itoo Broadening the role and reach of official statisticso Growth through coordinationo Enhanced qualityo Sustained capacity

• Stats SA has demonstrated deliveryo Delivered Census 2011o Consistent delivery of quality statistical products

• Stats SA has improved its governance and administration – evident through improving opinion of Auditor General – 5 unqualified opinions

• Stats SA is recognised as a lead agency on the continent and globally in statistical development

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Conclusion

• Stats SA has consistently delivered on its mandate over the past five years

• However inadequate funding – threatens growth and expansion to

implement the strategy

o Non-delivery on statistical information, quality and skills gapo The engine will have to be dismantled o Move back towards pre-2005

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