1 sustainable aquaculture trade meeting on fisheries, trade and development geneva 16 june 2010 dr....
TRANSCRIPT
1
Sustainable aquaculture trade
• Meeting on Fisheries, Trade and Development
• Geneva
• 16 June 2010
• Dr. Audun Lem, FAO
2
Outline
• World fish supply and demand– utilization and consumption– trade– prices– distribution
• Rise of aquaculture
• Conclusions
3
WORLD FISH SUPPLY
4
World fish production
Million t 2008 2009 2010e 2010/
2009
Capture 90 90 90 (0.1%)
Farmed 53 54 56 3.1%
Total 142 144 145 1.1%
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
AquacultureCatch
Millions of tonnes
FAO
World Fish Production
catch
aquaculture
6
Fish Utilization
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
OtherFEEDFOOD
Food uses
Feed
7
Per caput food supply (est)
Kg/year 2008 2009 2010 2010/09
Food fish
17.1 17.1 17.1 0.2%
Capture 9.3 9.2 9.1 -1.3%
Farmed 7.8 7.9 8.1 1.9%
8
Fish in overall protein supply
9
World aquaculture production 1950-2010: strong growth but slowing
down
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
AquacultureMillions of tonnes
aquaculture
10
Aquaculture producers 2008
ChinaIndiaVietNamIndonesiaThailandBangladeshJapanChileNorwayRest
China
11
Global Aquaculture Production
Rest of World
Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Pro
duct
ion
quan
tity
(ton
ne x
10
6)
China vs Rest of Asia
Rest of Asia
China
0
20
40
60
1950 1970 1990Year
Pro
duct
ion
quan
tity
(ton
ne x
10
6)
Asia incl. China
12
WORLD TRADE
13
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Developing countriesor areas
Developed countriesor areas
World Fish Trade: Export Value - in 1000 USD -
developing
developed
14
WORLD FISH EXPORTS USD 102.2 BILLION (2008)
• TRADE GROWING UNTIL ‘08– + 9 % (2008/2007)
• 2008 EXPORTS & IMPORTS > USD 100 BILL for 1st time
• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES– 50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS
• NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM FISHERIES CRUCIAL FOR MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES – USD 26 bill. (2008)
15
WORLD FISH EXPORTS USD 94.5 BILLION (2009est)
• TRADE CRASHED IN 2009 (est 12 months)– - 7.5 % values– - 0.6 % volume (live weight conversion)
• est. 2009 EXPORTS USD 94.5 BILLION• est. 2009 IMPORTS USD 98.6 BILLION• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
– 2009: 51.7 % OF WORLD EXPORTS
16
Share of world fisheries production destined to exports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
Production
Export
Million tonnes (live weight)
17
Norway6%
Canada4 %
Viet Nam4%
Chile4%
USA5%
Thailand6%
China10%
Russia2%
Indonesia2%
EU (25)26%
Main fish exporters 2008 (value)
18
Main fish importers (2008)
• Japan USD 14.5 bill. 13.8 %
• US USD 14.1 bill. 13.5 %
• EU USD 45.0 bill. 46.8 %
• Total big 3 USD 73.6 bill. 68.1 %
• Total world USD 108 bill. 100 %
19
Main fish importers (2009/2008)
• Japan USD 13.2 bill. - 9 %
• US USD 13.1 bill. - 7 %
• EU USD 39.5 bill. -13 %
• Total big 3 USD 65.8 bill. - 11 %
• Total world USD 98.5 bill. -8.8%
20
Fish market trends• Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008, decline in 2009
– high consumption but falling: 65 kg/kaput– imports below 3 million tons in 2007
• USA: long-term growth, will overtake Japan as # 1 country– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg
• consumer confidence falling late 2008 and 2009 • 2010 turn-around
• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market – expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg– rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile
21
Distribution
• 66 % of world imports by three markets• within these markets: supermarkets represent
50-85 % of retail sales• concentration of sales whereas industry remains
fragmented• tendency in developing countries: urbanization• at the same time: seafood retail net margins
reportedly low compared to other food products
22
Future ?
• Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for some species (salmon, European bass/bream, turbot. Shrimp ?)– focus on costs, economies of scale– focus on marketing and distribution– market and product segmentation
• Demand: retail concentration in developed and developing• But aquaculture has some advantages over wild:
– standardized product, size– traceability– predictability– contracts on price and volumes
23
ISSUES OF IMPACT
24
Global trend of outsourcing of both production and processing
• Asia (China, Thailand, Viet Nam)• but also
– Morocco (canning)– Poland/Baltic countries (marinades, smoking)
• Growing share of production in developing countries, esp. of aquaculture– Europe, North America and Japan import farmed
products from Asia, South And Central America
25
Role of China in production
World capture and aquaculture production
World excluding
China
China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Year
Mil
lio
n t
on
nes
26
The next China: Viet Nam
• 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters– much of which is farmed: catfish, shrimp
– but a growing importer as well
• reprocessing
• domestic consumption
27
Commodity prices
• fish versus other food ?
29
And fish ?
Turbot - In Spain, origin: Spain
5.07.09.0
11.013.015.017.019.0
Jun-
06
Oct
-06
Feb
-07
Jun-
07
Oct
-07
Feb
-08
Jun-
08
Oct
-08
Feb
-09
Jun-
09
Oct
-09
Feb
-10
Jun-
10
Fresh - whole, cultured 0.5-1kg/pc1-2 kg/pc2-4 kg/pc3-4 kg/pcEUR/kg
9.00
9.95
8.15
8.60
Squid - In Italy, origin: South Africa
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Jun-
06
Oct
-06
Feb
-07
Jun-
07
Oct
-07
Feb
-08
Jun-
08
Oct
-08
Feb
-09
Jun-
09
Oct
-09
Feb
-10
Jun-
10
Squid - Whole,FAS, size M
EUR/kg
4.50
Salmon - In Europe, origin: Norw ay
2.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0
Jun-
04
Oct
-04
Feb
-05
Jun-
05
Oct
-05
Feb
-06
Jun-
06
Oct
-06
Feb
-07
Jun-
07
Oct
-07
Feb
-08
Jun-
08
Oct
-08
Feb
-09
Jun-
09
Oct
-09
Feb
-10
Jun-
10
Fresh, gutted, head-on, 3-5 kg/pcEUR/kg
5.50
Seabass and Seabream - In Italy, origin: Greece
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jun-
06
Oct
-06
Feb
-07
Jun-
07
Oct
-07
Feb
-08
Jun-
08
Oct
-08
Feb
-09
Jun-
09
Oct
-09
Feb
-10
Jun-
10
Seabass fresh whole 300-450 gr/pc
Seabream fresh whole 300-450 gr/pcEUR/kg
4.35
4.60
30
The FAO Fish price index;(1998-2000 = 100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1994-0
1
1995-0
1
1996-0
1
1997-0
1
1998-0
1
1999-0
1
2000-0
1
2001-0
1
2002-0
1
2003-0
1
2004-0
1
2005-0
1
2006-0
1
2007-0
1
2008-0
1
2009-0
1
FAO total fish price index
Capture total
Aquaculture Total
31
FUTURE FISH PRICES ?
• DEMAND: slowly rising– because of population growth– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption
• SUPPLY– capture: stable, not increasing– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth– unknowns: climate change, disease, but also technology improvements
• PRICE IMPACT ?– most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much– price cycles in commodity markets– industry profitability through product development, technological
innovation and cost reduction, targeted marketing
32
AQUACULTURE FUTURE
• fastest growing food producing sector in the world• accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish• 53 million tons of fish produced worth USD 98
billion (2008)• Given the projected population growth, an
additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed by 2030 to maintain current per caput consumption.
33
Sustainable trade
• Trade in fish is governed by WTO trade rules (NAMA)
• Sustainability issues:– how to ensure sustainable production ?– how to ensure sustainable aquaculture
development ?– how to ensure sustainable aquaculture trade ?
34
Aquaculture development
• many countries prioritize an export driven aquaculture development– export markets, economic activities
• but other elements are essential as well– social issues– environmental issues
• for long-term sustainable growth, all three elements must be included– an ecosystem based development
• NB: Aquaculture development is also a societal choice
35
FAO Guidelines
• Responsible fish trade. FAO Technical Guidelines for Responsible Fisheries. No. 11. Rome, FAO. 2009
• Draft guidelines: The ecosystem approach to aquaculture (EAA)
• Draft guidelines for Aquaculture certification– on agenda for COFI-AQ in September 2010
36
CONCLUSIONS
• Fish has always been a globalized commodity– but of higher importance for developing countries than most other commodities
• Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to aquaculture: 47% share in 2009 in food fish
• Fish trade trend is positive: USD 100 billion in 2008, but drop in 2009• New growth in trade in 2010 • Fish trade: big 3 import 66 % but in decline• Outsourcing of production and processing
– Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia– Future: India ?
• Aquaculture will determine overall future supply– the ecosystem approach to aquaculture focuses on the environmental context
including the rights of stakeholders– sustainable aquaculture development must build on inclusion of economic, social
and environmental criteria
37
THANK YOU