1 sustainable biomass feedstock assessment in the northeast sun grant region peter woodbury, zia...
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Sustainable Biomass Feedstock Assessment in the Northeast
Sun Grant Region
Peter Woodbury,Zia Ahmed, Christian Peters, Jenifer Wightman
(Cornell University)
Sun Grant / DOE Regional Feedstock Partnership
Report and Planning Meeting
24 February 2010 San Antonio, TX, USA
We want a lot from the land – food, feed, fiber, fuel
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National
Regional
State
Local
REGIONAL SCALELand Cover (aggregated classes)
Source: National Land Cover Database
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Land Cover by State -- NE Sun Grant Region
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10
20
30
40
50
60
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90
100
Mai
ne
Verm
ont
Wes
t Virg
inia
New H
ampsh
ire
New Y
ork
Delawar
e
Mich
igan
Pennsy
lvania
Mar
ylan
d
Ohio
Connec
ticut
Mas
sach
usetts
New Je
rsey
Rhode I
sland
Distric
t of C
olum
bia
Per
cen
tage
of
Are
a
.
Wet/Water
Crops
Pasture/Hay
Grassland
Shrub
Forested
Barren
Developed
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Potential New Land for Perennial Feedstocks – Start with pasture, hay and grasslands
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Remove land with slope greater than 15%
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Remove Federal land
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Remove current hay and pasture area based on Census of Agriculture data.
Remove fields smaller than 5 acres
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regional map, area
Potentially available herbaceous land, not hay, not pasture
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Hay
(2020)
Land could become available due to increased crop yield. Example: corn and hay in NY.
Regressions performed for 35 crops for each state
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national map, area
Potentially available cropland due to increased crop yield by 2020-2030
OK, we’ve identified some suitable, potentially available land. How can we predict potential
yields of feedstocks?
Focus on perennial feedstocks (grasses and wilow) because they have reduced environmental impacts compared to annual crops.
Predict potential yield under low intensity and high intensity management based on soil and climate characteristics, historical crop yield data and a limited number of yield trials.
This is just a first step for strategic planning, more field research is needed!
Production potential depends on soil and climate
NCCPI developed by USDA-NRCS, Sharon Waltman, Bob Dobos, and others
Predict the yield of crops and bioenergy feedstocks based on soil and climate characteristics.
Y = 0.9541 + 3.759 XR² = 0.648 (p<0.001)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Me
an
ha
y yi
eld
(to
n/a
cre
s)
Mean NCCPI rating
Total potential feedstock production on herbaceous land, 2020, high intensity or low intensity
CT DE MA MD ME MI NH NJ NY OH PA RI VT WV0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
Pro
du
cti
on
(x
10
00
to
ns
)
Total potential feedstock production on cropland, 2020Two options: high intensity or low intensity
CT DE MA MD ME MI NH NJ NY OH PA RI VT WV0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
Low-intensity (hay)
High-intensity (switchgrass)
Pro
du
cti
on
(x
10
00
to
ns
)
How do owners want to manage their land?Survey results from New York State
71% of owners of idle land have no plans to sell or to return the land to active agriculture.
10% of owners plan to sell their land within 10 years, and only about 10% of buyers are expected to be farmers.
One-third of idle land is managed by occasional mowing, one-third has no management plan (Kay and Bills 2007).
Forest -- trend is towards smaller parcels, most owners have goals other than harvest.
Sources: Germain et al. 2007, Kay and Bills 2007.
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Logging Residues (draft)
Source: ORNL & USDA Forest Service
NOTE: For mapping, results are normalized to the entire county area
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national map, area
Potentially available cropland due to increased crop yield by 2020-2030
Production potential depends on soil and climate
NCCPI developed by USDA-NRCS, Sharon Waltman, Bob Dobos, and others
DRAFT: Total potential feedstock production in 2020Two options: high intensity or low intensity
Doesn’t include forest land!
New York Sustainable Biomass Feedstock Study & Biofuels Roadmap
SUNY-ESFTim Volk, Phil Castellano, Rene Germain,
Thomas Buchholz
Cornell UniversityJeni Wightman, Zia Ahmed, Christian Peters,
Jeff Melkonian, Hilary Mayton
Rochester Institute of TechnologyJames Winebrake, Erin Green,
And the rest of the NYS Biofuels Roadmap team: led by Zywia Wojnar of Pace University & Corinne Rutzke of Cornell University
Financial and other support: NYSERDA, NYS-DEC, and NYS Ag. & Markets
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Increased milk yield per cow,
Equine land use,
Equine hay & straw use
Feedstock production costs,
Short-rotation willow,
Forest thinnings & residues
Greenhouse gas emissions
STATE SCALE –New York
Milk yield per cow is increasing, therefore less feed and land required to produce a gallon of milk (NY).
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Projected feedstock production & cost circa 2020-2030 (very rapid bioenergy development scenario, NY State)
Current production agricultural and forest production
Current production & potential feedstock production
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GHG emissions from feedstock production
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Warm-season perennial grass field trials(Hilary Mayton and others, Cornell University)
LOCAL SCALE – FIELDS AND FARMS
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Dedicated bioenergy feedstock yield trial sites
Three Year Old Willow Biomass CropsVolk and others, SUNY-ESF
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0
10
20
30
40
0 10 20 30 40
Sim
ulat
ed y
ield
,O
D t
ha-1
Measured yield, OD t ha-1
Simulated yield = 0.94 * Measured yieldr2 = 0.65
The PNM dynamic simulation model with site-specific data predicts 3-year willow yield
(Model -Melkonian et al. 2010, Measured – Volk et al. 2010)
Bruce Dale, Greg Hanson,Satish Joshi, Hilary Mayton,Jeff Melkonian,
Rich Ready,Tom Richard,
Corinne Rutzke,Marianne Sarrantonio,
Tim Volk, James Winebrake,
Zywia Wojnar
& many other researchers who have shared their hard-earned data!
Collaborators
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We gratefully acknowledge the following sources of funding for our ongoing research:
Sun Grant & US-DOE Feedstock Partnership
Northeast Sun Grant Institute of Excellence,
US Department of Transportation,
NY Dept. of Environmental Conservation
NY Dept. of Agriculture and Markets
NYSERDA