1 the global ocean observing system and the southern ocean
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The Global Ocean Observing System and the Southern
Ocean
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Shepherd et al, Science, 2003
September 2005
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THE EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
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ZIMBABWE MAIZE YEILD AND EL NIÑOZIMBABWE MAIZE YEILD AND EL NIÑO
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EL NIÑO AND HEALTH RISKS: MALARIAEL NIÑO AND HEALTH RISKS: MALARIA
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NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)
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NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AFFECTS NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AFFECTS ZOOPLANKTON (CALANUS)ZOOPLANKTON (CALANUS)
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Circum-Antarctic Wave
Red = warm; blue = cool; grey = ice edgeT = wind stress, stretching and compressing ice extent
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GOOS, the Global Ocean Observing System is:
A sustained, coordinated international system for gathering data about the oceans and seas of the earth
A system for processing the data to enable the generation of beneficial products and services
The research and development upon which such products and services depend for their improvement
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Observing the Global Ocean
Sustained observations of the Ocean are required for:
Understanding global change Predicting climate Protecting and managing marine ecosystems Complying with international agreements Protecting life and property on the coast and at sea Providing forecasts of its future states for a variety
of uses and users.
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Policy Drivers
Meeting IOC and WMO Resolutions. Meeting Agenda 21 and WSSD requirements. Abiding by UNCLOS. Straddling and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks. Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS). UNFCCC (Climate Change). Biodiversity - Jakarta Mandate Ramsar - Wetlands Stockholm - Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) Regional Conventions (UNEP; OSPAR, etc) GEOSS and the G8.
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Operational SystemSustained, Routine, User-Driven, End-to-End
Analysis, Modelling
Data Communications & Management
Monitoring
Products
GOOS
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Schematic of the vertical stack of observations from satellites to seabed that would be necessary to inform an iAOOS study focused on the present state and future fate of the Arctic perennial sea-ice.
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1100
87
32
3000
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32
670
80
79
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1000
250
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79
26
250
45
77
24
250
40
1050
83
29
2000
24
430
55
1200
94
41
3000
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120
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760
7
86
1250
99
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3000
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150
40
820
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86
1250
99
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3000
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150
40
820
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86
1250
99
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3000
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150
40
820
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86
1150
90
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3000
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80
36
700
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86
77
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250
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tide GaugesOperational GPS/DORISStations
Surface Drifting Buoys
Tropical Moored Buoys
Ships of Opportunity
Argo Floats
Reference Stations
Coastal Moorings
System Evaluation
Ocean Carbon Network
Dedicated Ship Time
High resolution and frequentlyrepeated lines occupied
Number of floats
Number of moorings
Number of buoys
Days at sea (NOAA contribution)
Product evaluation andfeedback loops implemented
Number of flux sites/lines,One inventory per 10 years
Number of flux moorings
Moorings with climate sensors
807 671 779 810
200 310 544
1 2 6 7 10
0 150 0 0 40
14 16 18 20
0 1 1 1
774894 1001009988Total System 30 34 40 44
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20062005 2007 2008 2009 2010
System % Complete
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The Ten-Year Plan for In-situ Observations
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WE CAN NOW OBSERVE THE SEA SURFACE GLOBALLY &
SYNOPTICALLY.
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We have limited ability to observe beneath the surface of the ocean.
6,316 BATHY & TESAC reports collected
in real time during
December, 2000.
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Argo will cover the global oceans with 3,000 profiling floats.
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2154 Argo floats by 24 Nov 2005
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Drifting Buoy Programme
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The Global Sea-level Observing System (GLOSS)
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Antarctic Peninsula
Warming • Annual mean temp increase
3 °C in the last 50 years the largest warming in the SH.
• Sea ice decrease.• Precipitation increase.• Strong ENSO linkages.• Changes in water masses on
the continental shelf.• What are the contributions
of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing?
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-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0 1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999
Temperature
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Mean ice concentration
Temp Conc
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Upper Tropospheric Height Anomalies Associated with El Nino Events
Rossby Wave connection
The PSA signal is less robust than the PNA because of the strength of the Southern Hemisphere
westerlies
The link to El Niño
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0.17°C warming between 1950s-80s at
700-1100m depthDouble the global Ocean rate;
Concentrated in ACC;
Matches SH atmosphere;
Could influence sea ice
Gille, 2002
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Warming of Weddell Sea WDW
Warm Deep Water flowing into and out of the Weddell Sea has warmed by about 0.3C since the mid-1970’s.
(Robertson et al., 2002)
Atlantic freshwater changes
“… suggest links to global warming and possible changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Earth.”
saltier fresherfresher
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Regional change
Changes in winter sea ice duration
(Parkinson 2002 Ann Glaciol 34, 2002)
Antarctic Peninsula region. One of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet
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Atkinson et al (2004)
Circumpolar distribution of
krill
No. krill /m2
0
< 2
2-4
4-8
8-16
16-32
32-64
64-128
128-256
>256
no data
Euphausia superba
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19761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002
Year
Density (no. m-2)
1
10
100
1000
Declining krill population
Biodiversity Change
Atkinson et al, 2004
Increasing salps
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Southern Ocean CO2 (red = sink)
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Ocean acidification: Fossil CO2 is invading the ocean
ATLANTIC
PACIFIC
INDIAN
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Southern Ocean Circulation
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Southern Ocean Observing System Hydrographic Sections
Rintoul et al
CLIVAR/CliC/SCARSO Implementation
Panel
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Under-Ice Observing System
HAFOS(Fahrbach)
MooringsSurface DriftersUnder-Ice Floats
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Thermohaline Circulation links Asia
Antarctica
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Antarctica and the Global Climate System
(SCAR)Use: deep and shallow ice cores, satellite data, global and regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models meteorological and oceanic data
Assess: • role of ENSO in modulating Antarctic climate;
• recent climate variability;;
• climate change over the next 100 years;
• how climate change in the Antarctic influences conditions elsewhere
IPY:
test models and high-low latitude climate links;
carry out a major bi-polar shallow ice drilling programme.
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GODAEGODAE
Objective:Objective: practical demonstration of real-time, global ocean data assimilation for operationaloperational oceanography
The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999
To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for:
-- short-range open-ocean forecasts
-- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts
-- initial conditions for climate forecast models
To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our:
-- understanding of the oceans
-- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems
-- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system
GLOBAL OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION EXPERIMENT
38GODAE, Biarritz – 13 June, 2002
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea Surface Temperature
Salinity at 1000 mdepth
Salinity at 1000 mdepth
Sea SurfaceHeight
Sea SurfaceHeight
MERCATOR Bulletin for June 19, 2002 : how is the ocean next week ?
39Polar Research BoardPolar Research Board
U.S. National Academy of SciencesU.S. National Academy of Sciences
For PDF version, For PDF version, google “PRB AON“google “PRB AON“
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AON Essential Functions(i.e., essential to all participants)
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Thank you