Address: Private Bag, Apia, Samoa website: www.mof.gov.ws Telephone: (685)34333, Facsimile: (685)21312

MARCH 2020 QUARTERLY PUBLIC DEBT BULLETIN ISSUE NO. 31

1. TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT1.1 Total public debt as at end of March 2020 was SAT 1.09 billion, equivalent to 48.4% of GDP1. The total amount outstanding comprised of public external debt of SAT 1.08 billion and public domestic debt of SAT 0.01 billion. Total public debt increased by 1.4% and by 4.4% when compared to December 2019 and March 2019 quarters respectively. Continuous disbursement for external loan funded program and depreciation of tala against all the loan currencies were the main contributors to the increases.

1.2 Creditors Composition (Chart 1.3): The three main creditors in the portfolio are EXIM Bank of PRC (36.1%), IDA (29.4%) and ADB (22.3%). The other creditors are JICA (8.5%), OPEC (2.1%), and UTOS (0.9%) with IFAD, EIB, and SLAC at less than 1%.

1 Provisional: Average GDP figure March 2020

1.3 Loan Currency Composition (Chart 1.4): The SDR (51.3%) and CNY (36.1%) are the main loan currencies. The total public debt is 99.1% denominated in foreign currency and 0.9% denominated in Tala.

1.4 Total Debt Service for March 2020 quarter was SAT 30.0million (external debt service SAT27.9m/domestic debt service SAT2.1m). The amount for the quarter increased by 95.6% and by 17.4% when compared to December 2019 and March 2019 quarters respectively.

2. PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT 2.1 Total public external debt outstanding at the end of March 2020 was SAT 1.08 billion (55% multilateral creditors and 45% bilateral creditors). The outstanding amount increased by 4.6% and by 2.1% when compared to December 2019 and March 2019 quarters respectively. There was no new loan contracted during the quarter. 2.2 Creditors Composition (Chart 2.1): EXIM Bank of PRC (36.5%), IDA (29.6%) and ADB (22.5%) are the main creditors in the external debt portfolio.

2

2.3 Currency Composition (Chart 2.2): SDR2 (51.8%) remains the main loan currency in the external debt portfolio. The currency composition including the breakdown of SDR to its currencies (Chart 2.3) shows that CNY (42.1%), USD (24.4%), EUR (16.3%) are the main foreign currencies in the external debt portfolio. Other currencies are JPY (12.9%) and GBP (4.2%).

2.4 Total Disbursements for external debt during the quarter was SAT 2.2 million. The disbursement pertained to ongoing SAIP funded by IDA (Chart 2.4).

2 Special Drawing Rights - USD 41.73%, Euro-30.93%, CNY 10.92%, JPY-8.33% and

GBP-8.09%

3. PUBLIC DOMESTIC DEBT 3.1 Public domestic debt outstanding at the end of March 2020 quarter was SAT 0.01 billion (SAT9.5million), decreased by 16.2% and by 43.1% when compared to December 2019 and March 2019 quarters respectively. The composition of public domestic debt by instrument was 97.9% (SAT9.3 million) Government loans and 2.1% (SAT0.2 million) Government bond (Chart 3.1).

3.2 Creditors Composition (Chart 3.2): UTOS (97.9%) and SLAC (2.1%) are the creditors in the public domestic debt portfolio. SLAC is also the holder of the outstanding Government T-bond.

3.3 Currency composition of the domestic debt portfolio is 100% denominated in Tala.

4. GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES AND ON-LENDING 4.1 Total Government onlending outstanding at the end of March 2020 was SAT 164.6 million. The amount increased by 7.2% when compared to December 2019 quarter and decreased by 0.6% when compared to March 2019 quarter. The Government on-lent to DBS (1.2%), UTOS (2.4%) SSCC (30.5%), and EPC (65.8%). 4.2 Total Government guarantees3 outstanding at end of March 2020 was SAT162.2million. The amount increased by 0.8% and by 4.6% when compared to December 2019 quarter and March 2019 quarter respectively. The increases was mainly due to the final disbursement for PAL/SAL loan with UTOS. The composition of outstanding Government guarantees is depicted in Chart 4.1 and Chart 4.2.

3 Provisional

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5. COST AND RISK INDICATORS

Cost of the existing debt is the average interest rate of 1.5% per annum, mainly driven by highly concessional interest external borrowing from multilateral banks. Refinancing risk is lower in the portfolio, with ATM of 10.4 years and 6.8% of the total debt to mature in 1 year. Interest rate risk exposure is minimal as the total debt portfolio is on fixed interest rate. Total debt with interest rate to re-fix in 1 year is about 6.8% and ATR of 10.4 years. Foreign currency risk is the main risk in the portfolio, with 99.1% of the total public debt portfolio denominated in foreign currency. Short-term foreign currency denominated debt to mature in 1 year is about 14.5% of foreign reserves at the end of the period.

6. Debt Statistics

_______________________________________________________________________________________________Sources: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Public Enterprises, Samoa Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Samoa, Unit Trust of Samoa, Samoa Airways Prepared by Aid Coordination & Debt Management Division

Risk Indicators External Debt Domestic Debt Total Debt

1.08 0.01 1.09

48.0% 0.4% 48.4%

Cost of debt Av. IR (%) 1.4% 8.1% 1.5%

ATM (years) 10.5 2.5 10.4

Debt maturing in 1yr (% of total) 6.4% 44.0% 6.8%

ATR (years) 10.5 2.5 10.4

Debt refixing in 1yr (% of total) 6.4% 44.0% 6.8%

Fixed rate debt (% of total) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

FX debt (% of total debt) 100.0% - 99.1%

ST FX debt (% of reserves) 14.5% - 14.5%

Table 5.1: Cost and Risk Indicators for Total Public Debt 31 March 2020

Note: Av.IR - Average Interest Rate, ATM - Average Time To Maturity, ATR - Average Time to Refixing, FX - Foreign

Currency, ST - Short Term

Amount (in billions of SAT)

Nominal debt as % GDP

Refinancing risk

Interest rate risk

FX risk

Particulars 31-Mar-19 31-Dec-19 31-Mar-20 Qtrly change YTD change

Total Public Debt (SAT) 1.07 1.04 1.09 4.4% 1.4%

External Debt 1.05 1.03 1.08 4.6% 2.1%

Domestic Debt 0.02 0.01 0.01 -16.2% -43.1%

Total Public Debt to GDP (%) 49.0% 46.2% 48.4% 4.8% -1.1%

External Debt to GDP 48.2% 45.7% 48.0% 5.1% -0.4%

Domestic Debt to GDP 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% -15.9% -44.5%

Total Debt Service (SAT) 25.5 15.3 30.0 95.6% 17.4%

External 22.6 13.3 27.9 110.4% 23.3%

Domestic 2.9 2.1 2.1 0.0% -29.0%

Principal 19.8 12.9 24.5 89.2% 23.3%

Interest 5.7 2.4 5.5 130.2% -3.3%External Debt by Creditor(SAT)

Multilateral 548.9 550.5 590.8 30.5% 7.9%ADB 240.7 226.9 242.3 6.8% 0.7%EIB 3.6 3.2 3.3 4.6% -7.3%

IDA 277.6 295.4 318.6 7.8% 14.8%

IFAD 3.2 3.2 3.3 5.0% 2.1%

OPEC 23.8 21.9 23.2 6.3% -2.4%

Bilateral 504.7 477.9 484.9 7.4% -1.9%

EXIM Bank (China) 415.3 391.4 392.2 0.2% -5.6%

JICA 89.5 86.5 92.8 7.2% 3.7%

Domestic Debt by Creditor(SAT)

SLAC 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.0%

SNPF 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -100.0%

UTOS 16.5 11.2 9.3 -16.5% -43.4%

External Debt by Loan Currency (SAT)

% in CNY 39.4% 38.0% 36.5% -4.0% -7.5%

% in SDR 48.8% 49.8% 51.8% 3.9% 6.2%

% in USD 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% -6.3% -5.3%

% EURO 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% -3.4% -9.2%

% JPY 8.5% 8.9% 8.4% -5.2% -0.9%

Government Guarantees (SAT) 155.1 160.9 164.1 2.0% 5.9%

Government On-lending (SAT) 205.9 190.8 ® 204.7 7.3% -0.6%

Note: Provisional figures for March 2020 quarter ℗

a. Government Guarantees

b. GDP

Table 6.1: Summary of Debt Ratio

Creditor Interest rate %

Commitment fees (c)/

service fees (s)/

management fee (m)

Grace Period

(GP)

Maturity

(including GP)

ADB 1% during GP & 1.5% thereafter p.a /fixed - 8yrs 32yrs

EIB 0.75% average. p.a ./fixed - 10yrs 40yrs

IDA 0.75% p.a/fixed - 10yrs 40yrs

IFAD 1% p.a./fixed - 10yrs 50yrs

JICA 0.45% p.a./fixed 0.1% (c) p.a . 10yrs 30yrs

OPEC 3.98% average p.a./fixed 1% (s ) p.a . 5yrs 20yrs

PRC EximBank 2% p.a./fixed 0.67% av.(c)/0.67% av. (m) 5yrs 20yrs

SLAC 7.% p.a./fixed - 14yrs 15yrs

UTOS 8.2% average p.a/fixed - 1yr 7.7yrs

Table 6.2:Terms of Government Borrowings