1. transportation energy demand forecast (1)
TRANSCRIPT
DOCKETED Docket Number: 20-IEPR-03
Project Title: Electricity and Natural Gas
TN #: 235841
Document Title: Presentation - Transportation Energy Demand Forecast
Description: S1. 01 Bahreinian, Aniss, Transportation Energy Demand
Forecast
Filer: Raquel Kravitz
Organization: California Energy Commission
Submitter Role: Commission Staff
Submission Date: 12/3/2020 7:41:04 AM
Docketed Date: 12/3/2020
Transportation Energy Demand Forecast
2020 IEPR Update
2020 IEPR WorkshopDecember 3, 2020
Aniss [email protected]
Overview
• COVID 19 Impact on 2020 Fuel Consumption• Models & Scenarios• Transportation Energy Demand by Fuel & Vehicle Type
• ZEV Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts• Other Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts (Appendix)
• Transportation Energy prices (Appendix)
2
Transportation Energy Consumption
3
Transportation Energy
Consumption
Vehicle Population
Vehicle Miles
Traveled
Fuel Economy
2020 Monthly Fuel Consumption:COVID Impact
Gasoline Diesel
4
2017 Vehicle Population
(from California DMV, NTD)
CA TransportationEnergy Price Forecasts
Economic/Demographic Forecasts & Other Data
Vehicle Attributes(forecast)
Fuel Price Forecast(from U.S. EIA)
Regulatory ImpactCorporate Avg. Fuel
EconomyCalifornia ZEV Program
California On‐road/railTransportation Energy Demand
Urban Travel
Intercity Travel
Truck Choice AviationPersonal
Vehicle Choice
Freight Stock & Fuel (forecast)
California Vehicle Population(forecast)
2017 California Vehicle Survey
(Household, Commercial, PEV)
Freight Movement
LDV Stock & Fuel (forecast)
LDV Stock & Fuel (forecast)
Government Rental &
NEV
Other Bus
Incentives
MD/HD Stock(forecast)
LDV Stock(forecast)
Commercial Vehicle Choice
5
Energy Commission’s Transportation Energy Demand Forecasting Models
Demand Forecasting Scenarios are Electricity-Based
Demand Case Population Growth
Income Growth
Fuel Prices
Petroleum Fuels
Electricity, (Pipeline) Gas,
Hydrogen
High Demand High High High Low
Mid Demand Mid Mid Mid Mid
Low Demand Low Low Low High
6
2019 Transportation Energy Distribution by Fuel Type and Vehicle Type
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
MD/HD/Rail LDV
Bill
ions
of G
GE
Gasoline Diesel E85 Electricity Gas Hydrogen propane
85%
96%
7
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
Transportation Energy Demand Forecast by Fuel Type: 2019 vs 2030 High Demand Case
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Diesel Gasoline Gas Electricity Hydrogen E85 Propane
Mill
ions
of G
GE
2019 2030
8
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
Total Transportation Energy Demand Forecast
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Trill
ions
of B
TUs
Low Mid High
9Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
Transportation Electricity Demand Forecast
10
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
GW
h
Low Mid High
Transportation Hydrogen Demand Forecast
‐
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Million of Kilo
gram
s
Low Mid HighSource: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
11
Transportation Forecasting Team
• Heidi Javanbakht (Unit Supervisor)• Aniss Bahreinian• Jesse Gage: DMV Analyst, Government and Rental LDV Forecast
• Elena Giyenko: Other Bus Forecast
• Alexander Lonsdale: EV Load Shape Forecast
• Bob McBride: Truck Choice and Freight, MD/HD Forecast
• Mark Palmere: LDV Forecast
• Elizabeth Pham: ZEV Portal
• Ysbrand van der Werf: Fuel Price Forecast, Urban/Intercity Travel
12
Appendices
13
Gasoline Demand Forecast
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Billion
s of G
GE
Low Mid High
14
Diesel Demand Forecast
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Bill
ions
of D
iese
l Gal
lons
Low Mid High
15Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
Transportation Gas Demand Forecast
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Mill
ions
of T
herm
s
Low Mid High
16
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
Ethanol (E85) Demand Forecast
20
25
30
35
40
45
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Mill
ions
of E
85 G
allo
ns
Low Mid High
17
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
Transportation Propane Demand Forecast
-
6
12
18
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Mill
ions
of P
ropa
ne G
allo
ns
Low Mid High
18
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
Transportation Energy Price Forecast
19
California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019
California Gasoline
California Diesel
$/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/DGE $/DGE $/DGE
YearLow
Electricity Demand
Mid Demand
High Electricity Demand
YearLow
Electricity Demand
Mid Demand
High Electricity Demand
2019 $3.68 $3.68 $3.68 2019 $3.92 $3.92 $3.922020 $3.59 $3.59 $3.59 2020 $3.83 $3.83 $3.832021 $2.29 $2.77 $3.23 2021 $2.42 $2.90 $3.602022 $2.27 $2.76 $3.37 2022 $2.45 $2.91 $3.792023 $2.25 $2.74 $3.57 2023 $2.43 $2.89 $4.042024 $2.22 $2.70 $3.66 2024 $2.44 $2.89 $4.142025 $2.20 $2.71 $3.70 2025 $2.44 $2.85 $4.212026 $2.20 $2.70 $3.76 2026 $2.43 $2.85 $4.252027 $2.20 $2.71 $3.76 2027 $2.42 $2.79 $4.202028 $2.19 $2.69 $3.80 2028 $2.40 $2.75 $4.202029 $2.18 $2.69 $3.91 2029 $2.39 $2.69 $4.302030 $2.22 $2.73 $3.92 2030 $2.42 $2.65 $4.24
20
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis
California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019
Electricity Electricity HydrogenCommercial Rates
$/GGE $/GGE $/GGE Residential Rates
$/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE
YearLow
Electricity Demand
Mid Demand
High Electricity Demand
YearLow
Electricity Demand
Mid Demand
High Electricity Demand Year
Low Electricity Demand
Mid Demand
High Electricity Demand
2019 $5.54 $5.54 $5.54 2019 $6.24 $6.24 $6.24 2019 $16.55 $16.55 $16.552020 $5.78 $5.78 $5.78 2020 $6.50 $6.50 $6.50 2020 $16.00 $16.00 $16.002021 $6.08 $5.93 $5.86 2021 $6.90 $6.75 $6.67 2021 $14.87 $15.46 $16.062022 $6.22 $6.03 $5.86 2022 $7.13 $6.93 $6.73 2022 $14.03 $14.91 $15.812023 $6.15 $5.99 $5.73 2023 $7.09 $6.92 $6.62 2023 $13.19 $14.37 $15.572024 $6.20 $5.99 $5.68 2024 $7.13 $6.91 $6.55 2024 $12.35 $13.82 $15.332025 $6.43 $6.16 $5.79 2025 $7.37 $7.07 $6.64 2025 $11.51 $13.28 $15.082026 $6.63 $6.29 $5.85 2026 $7.55 $7.18 $6.67 2026 $10.67 $12.73 $14.842027 $6.79 $6.39 $5.87 2027 $7.69 $7.25 $6.66 2027 $9.83 $12.19 $14.592028 $6.97 $6.52 $5.90 2028 $7.85 $7.35 $6.66 2028 $8.99 $11.64 $14.352029 $7.17 $6.63 $5.92 2029 $8.04 $7.44 $6.66 2029 $8.15 $11.10 $14.102030 $7.36 $6.75 $5.94 2030 $8.22 $7.54 $6.64 2030 $7.31 $10.55 $13.86
Note that a hydrogen price of $5.86/GGE ($6.50/kg) was used in the MD-HD high case, representing a right-sized station for a dedicated fleet
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis21
California 2020 Fuel Price Forecasts, $2019
Propane for Transportation
Pipeline Gas forTransportation
Pipeline Gas forTransportation
$/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/GGE $/DGE $/DGE $/DGE
YearLow
Electricity Demand
Mid Demand
High Electricity Demand
YearLow
Electricity Demand
Mid Demand
High Electricity Demand
YearLow
Electricity Demand
Mid Demand
High Electricity Demand
2019 $1.94 $1.94 $1.94 2019 $2.01 $2.01 $2.01 2019 $2.33 $2.33 $2.342020 $1.93 $1.93 $1.93 2020 $2.01 $2.01 $2.01 2020 $2.33 $2.33 $2.332021 $1.84 $2.01 $2.17 2021 $1.99 $2.01 $2.02 2021 $2.31 $2.33 $2.342022 $1.86 $2.09 $2.35 2022 $1.99 $2.00 $2.02 2022 $2.31 $2.33 $2.342023 $1.89 $2.14 $2.54 2023 $1.99 $2.00 $2.01 2023 $2.31 $2.32 $2.342024 $1.92 $2.19 $2.72 2024 $1.99 $2.00 $2.01 2024 $2.31 $2.32 $2.342025 $1.95 $2.27 $2.91 2025 $1.98 $2.00 $2.01 2025 $2.30 $2.32 $2.332026 $1.98 $2.34 $3.08 2026 $1.98 $1.99 $2.01 2026 $2.30 $2.31 $2.332027 $1.99 $2.38 $3.21 2027 $1.98 $1.99 $2.00 2027 $2.29 $2.31 $2.332028 $1.99 $2.40 $3.29 2028 $1.97 $1.99 $2.00 2028 $2.29 $2.31 $2.322029 $1.99 $2.41 $3.40 2029 $1.97 $1.99 $2.00 2029 $2.29 $2.30 $2.322030 $2.03 $2.47 $3.44 2030 $1.97 $1.98 $2.00 2030 $2.29 $2.30 $2.32
22
Source: Energy Commission Staff Analysis