1 transportation forecasting finally, forward planning for logistics
TRANSCRIPT
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Transportation ForecastingFinally, Forward Planning for Logistics
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Simply Having TMS and WMS is No Longer Sufficient
Logistics Challenges
Customer Service
Seasonal,Promotional
FinancialPressures
Internal Drivers External Amplifiers
TightCapacity
ShrinkingLead Times
Volatility
Lack of Visibility
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No Visibility Beyond Existing Orders
Every Day Another Batch of Orders To Be Shipped
Trapped in a constant state of scrambling
Last to know about promotions Prone to unscheduled events,
rush charges, overtime, etc. Reliving the same emergencies
over and over
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Logistics Operations Identify capacity constraints
before experiencing them Proactively secure capacity
with preferred carriers Avoid spot market
Schedule warehouse workload Enable cross-dock efficiencies Job satisfaction & productivity
Less scrambling Improve intermodal usage
Carrier Collaboration Share forecasts with carriers Improve strategic partnerships Become shipper of choice Negotiate beneficial rates Help improve return on assets
Fundamental Shift from Reacting to Planning
Customer Service Best service via preferred carriers Improved score cards Become the preferred vendor
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Enable the Whole Company to Operate Against the Same Plan
Aligned with S&OP
Synchronized with the demand planning forecast and the manufacturing and deployment strategy
Visibility to proactively respond to : Promotional surges Seasonal patterns Volume shifts from changes in your network
Always current – updated daily based on the latest information
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Thank you
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Mondelēz International N.A. Journey to Transportation Planning & Forecasting …
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• The NEW Global Snacking Powerhouse Company• $35 Billion Total Sales
• $7 Billion of this in North America
• Diverse Power Brands• #1 Biscuit and Candy• #2 Gum
• Clear Vision & Values• Transformational Leadership• Safety, Service, Cost in the ISC• Supply Chain Reinvention; massive investment for future• Top Tier Financial Performance; we are overtaking our competition already!• A Great Place to Work• Awesome Values..
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Mondelēz International
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Mondelēz International:What is Transportation Planning & Forecasting…
Capacity Requirements Carrier forecast Facility forecast (inbound vs. outbound) CPU
Capacity Management Capacity shortage vs. current routing guides Capacity surge vs. previous 4 weeks average & F/C – Defining work processes
Forecast Accuracy TF vs. actual TF vs. Demand (ADF) Compliance to Replenishment (APS)
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Three Key Capabilities
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Mondelēz International:
An engine to predict future demand related to transportation planning beyond orders.
Close the gap between sophisticated supply chain and reactive transportation planning by making more information available to users.
Allows communication between traditional logistic information silos (Promotions, DP/Forecast, and TMS).
Application using open orders, shipments, and DP forecasts to generate transportation forecasts at the lane level with shipping modes and temperature channels.
TERRA Transportation Forecast:
TERRA Technology utilizes the aforementioned forecast and converts to truckload requirements.
Truckload forecast is compared with OTM Routing Guides
What are the Needs & Enablers to Developing the process x-functionally
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Mondelēz International: Benefits Desired
Capabilities
Capacity Requirements
Capacity Management
Forecast Accuracy
Cost Prediction
Promotion/Category Volume
Planning
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Improve Service
Improve Tender Acceptance
Improve RG Compliance
Simplify & Restore Reliability
Proactive vs. Reactive Focus
Cost Containment
Benefits
Capabilities Enable the Benefits
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Transportation Forecasting (TF) OverviewBasic System Flow
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Mondelez Transportation Systems Flow
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IBP (S&OP) Process
Sales & Demand Forecast
Product Supply
LogisticsPlanning & Execution
Transportation Forecasting is dependent on Demand and Supply…
…therefore, must be integrated
Logistics PlanningFulfillment/DeployDistribution Ops.Transportation
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TF Analytics
TF Analytics is dynamic reporting information organized by modules
TF Analytics contains four main modules:
Forecasts shows, by day, the current and historical views of the daily forecast
Accuracy used to compare DP/RP and TF accuracy
Forecast Evolution similar to Forecasts, but shows multiple days in one view
Category Volume Breakdown shows the forecast volume for each category
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TF Analytics – Forecasts
Forecasts tab allows you to view the TF forecast and Orders
Selection of Truck, Pallet, Weight, Case, Volume, or Cost from the Unit options
Selection of Forecasts, or Intermodal Report from the Chart options
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TF Analytics - Accuracy
Compare and analyze the historical performance of the DP and TF forecasts Truck or Cost from the Unit options Forecasts, MAPE or Bias from the Chart options Loc-Zone or Loc-Cust-Mode-Temp-Carrier from the Agg Level options
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TF Analytics – Forecast Evolution
Forecast Evolution tab allows you to analyze forecast changes for a given date/time period over time
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TF Analytics – Category Volume Breakdown
The Category Volume Breakdown tab provides the forecast volume for each category. The breakdown uses a splitting factor based on current DP
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Routing Guide Exception: Weekly Capacity Shortages
Forecast/Demand results information is reconciled weekly with Routing Guide for Capacity, KPI Mgt., Carrier Communication etc…
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Forecast & Capacity Planning Actions
Information supports: Product Supply validate volume S&OP and IBP
Customer Service & Sales validation of orders
Carrier Communication & Collaboration
Demand Planning field reconciliation
Transportation Capacity Management & Execution
Deployment & Fulfillment Practices
Future Procurement initiatives
Benchmarking within the industry
Cost Containment
Simplification of Process
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Results from TERRA Transportation Forecast Planning
TF Planning continues to support and contribute to moving
to BIC by supply information x-functionally is a systematic process
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Mondelēz International NA Transportation has seen significant improvement in Service & Cost Containment over the past 3 years due to TTF and Planning
KPI 2012 YOY 2013 YOY 2014 YOY 2015 YTD
TF Accuracy 3.1% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Routing Guide Compliance
1.0% 4.7% 3.4% 1.6%
OTD 6.1% 12.1% 2.2% 0.4%
RDD 8.0% 10.7% 0.7% 1.7%
EDI Compliance 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.4%
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THANK YOU, AND ENJOY YOUR JOURNEY
Joe Tuturice
Mondelēz International
North America Transportation
610-751-1650