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UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD) 11TH  AFRICAN OIL AND GAS, TRADE AND FINANCE CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION

May 25, 2007, NAIROBI, KENYAAll opinions expressed are those of Prof. Sullivan alone, not any other person or organization

PROFESSOR PAUL J. SULLIVANNDU

GEORGETOWNEAST WEST INSTITUTE

NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD

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North: oil and gasSouth: coal and nuclearThe center: biomass and Hydro (under potential)

Potential vs. actual in Energy, especially hydroAnd alternatives like solar, windTidal, wave, biofuels, geothermalAnd more are seriously Underutilized.

Potential vs. actual in Economic development and Human development?

You need a systematic, Continent-wide approach, but Need to know the on-the-groundData and realities.

Mark Tomlinson, WB, Regional Integration, 2006

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There is a huge variety of energy systemsin Africa.

One policy type or size does not fit all.

It is a massive continent, with a huge variety of natural resources that are notevenly distributed.

This is normally said of the coal, oil and gas, but is also true of watershed sources for hydropower, wind power resources, solarresources, geothermal resources, tidal sources and more.

A major problem is connecting energy sourceswith energy needs and development (geography,war, international tensions, technical issues, finance)

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University of Delaware, Department of Marine Studies

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OXFAM ETAL, “MEETING AFRICA’S ENERGY NEEDS: THE COSTSAND BENEFITS OF HYDROPOWER”, 2006

AAAS.ORG

ONLY 7% OF AFRICA’SHYDROPOWER CAPACITYIS USED – IF THAT…..

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Source: Geothermal Education Office, 2006

Geothermal could be a huge source of clean fuel.

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Solar radiation map of the world (yearlyAverage) Source: DLR, 2004

Solar power, like hydro and wind, is underutilized, Especially compared to deforesting biomass.

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9A lot of energy leaves Africa.

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But these conglomerated statistics from the IEA hardly tell the whole story.

If we take a look at some countries in a more disaggregated way we see that:

1. Most of the coal use is in South Africa.

2. Most oil and gas is in North and west Africa; very little is found elsewhere.

3. Over time some countries, like The Sudan, have seen drastic changes in energy production toward Oil. So there may be hope for many others?

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4. Many countries you would expect to have oil and gas as a large part of their energy supply still rely on biomass for most of their supplies: like Nigeria and Angola

5. Some Countries that could have massive hydro-power potential use mostly biomass: DRC and The Sudan, for examples.

6. All of the nuclear in in South Africa: with some issues. (Recent blackout in Cape Town?)

7. Some post-conflict states, like Mozambique, have shown great progress on some energy issues,yet still rely massively on biomass.

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8. Some countries, like Kenya, are putting effortstoward geothermal and other alternatives morethan many other countries in Africa. Ghana and othersAre working on biofuels.

9. There is some switching going on in countries likeEgypt from oil to gas, and toward less reliance on hydroover the years.

10. There will be a serious switch into gas as themassive flaring on the continent, especially in Nigeria, is capped and piped via joint pipelines.

11. Hydropower is uneven in reliance at bestas seen in Togo and Ghana, for examples. Others, like Cameroon and Ethiopia, have more reliable hydro.

12. Some are blessed with oil and hydropower, like Angola and Gabon.

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13. Some are hugely reliant on outside oil for electricity, like Benin, Eritrea, and Senegal.

14. Others rely on their own natural gas for mostOf their electricity, like Algeria.

15. Others rely on their own oil, like Libya.

16. Others rely on other countries’ gas for electricity,like Tunisia.

17. Outside of electricity production most non-oilstates rely tremendously on deforesting and environmentally damaging biomass use.

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LEVELS OF ENERGY SECURITY:

Household

Community

Region

Country

International

TIME SPANSE:

Short run, medium run, and long run

MULTIDIMENSIONAL ISSUE:

Space, time, culture and other dimensions

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Energy end-use security

Fuel source security

Fuel conversion security

Energy transmission and distribution security

Energy infrastructure security (pipelines, refineriesPower lines, transformers, etc.)

Energy technology security/ ideas security

Energy finance security

Energy policy security

Energy-environment security

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Human energy security – under-represented in the debate

Health, well-being, education, training, and othermeasures and realities of human capital

Human capital as a leverage for human energy

Which is, in turn, leveraged by non-human energy

Non-human energy overlaps with and acts in synergy, sometimes, with human energy

Livestock and other animal energy as a further“analogy”

Human energy, non-human energy, and human security?

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Maybe we can now look at this holisticallyas a synergistic, leveraging process thatrequires a security element?

Feinstein, World Bank, 2002

Similar relations have been found with the HDI.

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Source: UNDP, “Energizing the Millennium Development Goals”, 2006

20UNDP, “ENERGIZING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS”, 2006

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Sometimes the practical things work best, and at small scale levels?

We don’t need social experiments. We needpractical projects withreal results.

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Big does not necessarilymean centralized or“dirty” energy, but weneed to see the tradeoffsfrom all types of sources.

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PROPER PORTFOLIOS OF ENERGY SYSTEMSWITHIN SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT

PROPER RISK-RETURN CALCULATIONS ATMANY END-USE, GEOGRAPHIC AND TIMESPANSES

GENERALIZED, HOLISTIC COST/BENEFITANALYSES REQUIRED

PEOPLE NEED TO BE PART OF THE DECISIONS, AND THE MAJOR BENEFICIARIES OF THE PROJECTS

NEEDS A LONG RUN VIEW OF OVERALLDEVELOPMENT OF AFRICA

EVEN AFTER THE MDGS ARE HISTORY….