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Willem van Kemenade Willem van Kemenade Website: Website: www.willemvk.org

E-mail: kemenade@xs4all.nl E-mail: kemenade@xs4all.nl

CHINA AND JAPANCHINA AND JAPAN

Partners in Regional Security and Integration Partners in Regional Security and Integration or Permanently Estranged Neighbors ?or Permanently Estranged Neighbors ?

Nederlands Genootschap voor Internationale Zaken, Nederlands Genootschap voor Internationale Zaken, 10 oktober 200510 oktober 2005

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Essentials of Essentials of Chinese Chinese

Foreign PolicyForeign Policy

Peaceful Rise - Avoidance of conflict with the US, and Japan.

Multipolarity – Develop close relations with other centers of power, especially the European Union.

Give priority to economic development for another few decades.

Global hunt for oil, gas and raw materials Tao guang ~ Yang hui: Hide one’s capacities and

bide one’s time (Deng Xiaoping).

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The Great Unknown: The Great Unknown: “Whither Koizumi ?”“Whither Koizumi ?”

PM Koizumi has not given any clear indication how he wants to handle relations with China for the remainder of his term, except for saying in a 14 minute speech, he seeks “future oriented friendly relations” with Asian neighbours.

During the election campaign, China-policy, the most momentous problem for Japan has not been an issue at all.

On October 1, Japan proposed a "comprehensive and final solution" to the long-running energy-dispute around the Diaoyutai/Senkaku islands.

Last week, Rumsfeld “skipped” Japan on a planned Asia tour, “because the Japanese were not ready to accept US proposals for redeployment of American forces in Japan, away from Okinawa”.

Japan is considering to make more forces, ships and airplanes available for the Bush-Blair War on terror.

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Japan failed to lead East-Asia ~ Japan failed to lead East-Asia ~ China is “resuming its pre-eminence”China is “resuming its pre-eminence”

“Asia is entering an era in which the dominance of the US is being increasingly challenged by Japan, by virtue of its economic might. Governments and people in Asia are looking more and more to Tokyo for a lead, rather than to Washington. But it is a role that Japan is reluctant to play”.

From: Japan in Asia, The Economic Impact on the Region, published by the Far Eastern Economic Review in 1991.

Now, 14 years later, China is not inhibited by that same reluctance and is asserting itself through trade, aid and soft-power.

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Evolution of a Evolution of a Friendly RelationshipFriendly Relationship

1972-19891972-1989

Japan could not establish diplomatic relations with the PRC until after the Nixon Visit in 1972 due to its sub-sovereign status.

Friendly feelings among the Japanese toward China blossomed during the 1970s and 1980s and reached a high of 79 % in 1980.

The bloody repression of the Tiananmen Square student rebellion wrecked this euphoric mood.

Japan joined the other G-7 nations in imposing sanctions on China, but was the first country to lift them in 1990 and help China out of its international isolation.

Japan’s criticism of China’s human rights record was adamantly rejected by the Chinese leadership and China started retaliating, by magnifying World War II issues.

Thus the emotional link between the human rights issue and the legacy of World War II became a unique feature of the relations between Japan and China.

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Erosion of the RelationshipErosion of the Relationship

The China-Japan relationship further deteriorated in the mid-1990s over Taiwan: Lee Teng-hui visit, Japanese support for Taiwanese democracy, missile tests and strengthening of US-Japan Alliance, Chinese nuclear tests,

JDA director-general Yoshinori Ono highlighted the case where a Chinese submarine intruded into Japanese waters in November 2004.

When the American and Japanese foreign and defense minister two months later declared the peaceful solution of the Taiwan issue a common strategic objective, this was new evidence for the Chinese of US-Japanese collusion on Taiwan and further intensification of the US-Japan military alliance.

At this point, the Chinese government gave up hope that worsening Sino-Japanese relations could be turned around any time soon.

The demonstrations coincided with an international petition drive to collect signatures on the internet opposing Japan’s candidacy for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council.

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Japan’s Attempts to lead Asia Japan’s Attempts to lead Asia stymied for decades by stymied for decades by

subservience to the US, subservience to the US, Now by the Rise of ChinaNow by the Rise of China

Japan has tried to break out of its “satellite-relationship” with the US several times, but each time external events and American pressure frustrated this. Koizumi’s announcement in 2002 that he would go to Pyongyang, just after George Bush had branded it part of the “axis of evil” was the latest example.

Then Japan tried détente with Russia: getting the Kurile islands back for a huge pay-out of $ 25 billion. Yeltsin wouldn’t play ball.

Then the first North-Korean nuclear crisis in 1993-1994 pulled Japan back into the American orbit. China’s firing of missiles close to Taiwan in 1995-1996 further re-strengthened the US-Japan alliance.

During the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, the US, followed by China, torpedoed a Japanese plan to set up an “Asian Monetary Fund” that would help Asian countries not according to the IMF criteria of the Washington Consensus, but according to “Asian Values” with Japan in the lead.

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““China Rebuilding Traditional Sphere of China Rebuilding Traditional Sphere of Influence: The China-ASEAN FTA”Influence: The China-ASEAN FTA”

After its WTO-accession in 2001, China immediately moved towards establishing a FTA with ASEAN – CAFTA -- at the Pnom Penh Summit in 2002. PM Koizumi was shocked.

China’s drive to integrate with ASEAN motivated by triple strategic design: – Soothe ASEAN for sucking investment from SE Asia to China– Marginalize Japan further as regional leader – Downsize the importance of Taiwanese trade and investment in SEA.

Trade figures show how decidedly China is replacing Japan as the trade hub of the region. China’s share of Asian imports rose from 10.5 per cent in 1995 to 23.7 per cent in 2003 and Japan’s share declined from 26.7 per cent to 22 percent during the same period.

Japan is much less willing to engage in trade liberalization, especially in the highly protected agricultural sector.

Japan is viewed as a “non-Asian” protectionist partner of the United States.

From: Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives, Washington DC, 1997

China: A Regional Power with some Global Influence and the Ambition to become a Two-Ocean Country

Gwadar

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China-Japan-Korea FTA: China-Japan-Korea FTA: Non-Starter for NowNon-Starter for Now

Following Pnompenh, the leaders of Japan, China and Korea, agreed three years ago to initiate a study group of thinktanks to explore prospects for closer cooperation among the three countries.

China wanted to upgrade the study group but Japan wanted an investment treaty first.

According to the Koreans, Japanese reluctance to enter into an FTA with China is political: Senkaku, energy-exploration, the history issue, capped by Japanese anxiety that China is becoming more and more prominent in trade and investment in the region.

China has its FTA with ASEAN ready and has positive relations with South-Korea. South-Korea has its own negotiating relationship with ASEAN and Japan, and Japan is negotiating with ASEAN and Korea as well, but the big missing link is between China and Japan.

Although there is no specific agreement yet on forming a region-wide FTA, a web of bilateral FTAs is now in the pipeline. As a Chinese official put it: “There is no ASEAN + 3. In fact there are only “Three ASEAN’s plus One”.

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The Coming East Asia SummitThe Coming East Asia Summit The East Asia Summit is scheduled for December 14 in Kuala

Lumpur as a first step to establish an East Asian Community. Since China and Japan cannot lead because they don’t accept

each other’s leading role, ASEAN is in de drivers’ seat and will chair the Summit with the ASEAN 10 + 3 – China, Japan, South Korea, plus India, New Zealand and Australia.

Australia, one of the deputy sheriffs of the US has been trying to rally support for US participation, but there is a consensus to keep the US out.

Koizumi is expected to move forward with constitutional revision, fully remilitarize Japan as the uninhibited global junior military ally of the US and be very lukewarm about Asian “mulitlateralism”.

In the anti-China prism of the US and Japan, China is planning to use the EAC as an instrument to limit US influence in Asia by establishing its political, economic and military dominance in the region.

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South-Korea’s South-Korea’s Warming Relationship Warming Relationship

with Chinawith China

South-Korea has to heed the responses of all sides to China’s Rise, particularly Japan and the US.

Korea’s close historical relationship with China is deepening as the Cold War relationship with the US is further cooling, after Bush’ derailing of the “Sunshine” policy and the “Axis of Evil” rhetoric. Bush may go down in history as the president who lost Korea.

An ancient history issue cooled the relationship in 2004 when Chinese scholars asserted that the ancient kingdom of Koguryo (57 BC – 668 AD) was part of Chinese history.

China fever epitomizes the country's enthusiasm for its neighbour. Chinatowns are springing-up in cities, language schools report surging demand for Chinese lessons and tourist destinations are targeting the growing China tourism market.

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America yields to America yields to Chinese Chinese

leadership on leadership on North-KoreaNorth-Korea

After 13 months absence, North Korea returned to Beijing on July 27 for another round of the “Six Party Talks” to end its nuclear weapons programme.

A meaningful step forward was taken when the United States after years of public insults and threats, conveyed to Pyongyang that it recognized North Korea as a sovereign country and had no intention of invading it.

By September, China intensified the pressure on the US to extend some trust to North Korea, backing Pyongyang's right to a peaceful nuclear energy programme once it dismantles its weapons and returns to the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

Then on September 19, North-Korea agreed to give up all its nuclear weapons programs in exchange for oil and food aid and diplomatic recognition by the US and Japan.

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Is War over Taiwan Is War over Taiwan imaginable ? imaginable ?

Majorities in the US, Japan and Taiwan probably prefer the status quo of “no independence, no reunification, no war, joint economic development and some integration”.

The US wants to maintain its dominance over both Japan as a satellite ally and Taiwan as an unrecognized protectorate, as the twin pillars of its military hegemony in Northeast Asia.

On all sides there are vocal minorities and interest groups who think they will benefit from a war, which they reflexively assume, the US/Japan/Taiwan will win.

One Japanese pro-Taiwan hardliner: “In the coming years, public opinion and the Congress of the US will be the ‘dictator’ of the world, stronger than the president.”

No legal instruments mandate Japan to support the US in case of war.

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A Role for Europe ? A Role for Europe ? The Chinese want to learn from the European

experience with multilateral diplomacy, how to counter the US-Japanese scheme to freeze the Cold War status quo in East Asia and how to advance their “core interest”, the peaceful reunification with Taiwan on the basis of some vague, flexible long-term formula.

The Chinese also want Europe to advise them how to develop a permanent regional security cooperation mechanism.

As the Shanghai Cooperation Organization emerged from the “border-talks” after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, there is hope now, that the Six Party Talks Process could evolve towards such a mechanism.

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A European Role in Sino-Japanese A European Role in Sino-Japanese Reconciliation vis-à-vis WWII Issues ?Reconciliation vis-à-vis WWII Issues ?

A third issue on which the Chinese would welcome European help is the legacy of WWII with Japan.

“We Chinese, naturally compare Japan with Germany. Germany’s attitude towards historical WWII issues has been exemplary. Atonement, apologies, compensation etc.

Japan has spectacularly failed to do anything comparable to Germany and the US has always been quiet about this. Whenever we discuss this with American academics, they always blame China. One very prominent American East Asia scholar went even as far as putting Koizumi’s Yasukuni visits on a par with asking the American government to stop paying homage to Arlington National Cemetery.

So it would be very important if Europe would add an independent voice, in this case, how to examine this dispute and how to conduct the current debate on this Sino-Japanese conflict. This could have a significant positive impact.”

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An East Asian Cold WarAn East Asian Cold War Senior figures in Japan openly express hope that China will

disintegrate: “If Taiwan is not integrated into China, that will be a great favor to our defense”.

“We will definitely support US intervention to defend Taiwan ….. If we have to choose between the US and China, Japan will choose the US. That’s the worst situation to arise”.

“Tensions will continue for some time. I cannot see even ten, twenty years from now, we will become good friends. We will have huge trade, summit meetings etc. but tension will continue. Like during the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States, two very different powerful empires. They could never get really close. But there was détente, disarmament, reduction of tensions etc. They managed to be able to coexist, without fighting. Maybe something like that can develop between China and Japan.

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ProspectsProspects

The hottest issue at this moment is the tension between Beijing and Tokyo over gas reserves in the East China Sea. The Japanese Defense Agency revised its security strategy in late 2004 on the assumption that conflicts over resources could escalate into war.

However, on October 1, Japan proposed a "comprehensive and final solution" to the long-running dispute.

The first round of Sino-Japanese negotiation on this issue is scheduled before the end of October 2005.