1 . 2 3 source: carlotta perez
TRANSCRIPT
Robust decisions in uncertain times
SAMI Consulting
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The Road to 2035
Chris Yapp
Cass Business School1st April 2014
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons (IFF)
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Source:Carlotta Perez
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Energy2035
The World of 2035
Life in 2035
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Matter
Information
Energy
Robust decisions in uncertain times
New materials
Graphene Protocells
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Some key Technologies
• Cloud Computing• Internet of Things• 3D Printing• Smart Cities• LIDAR• New Materials• Synthetic Biology
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The Next waves of Computing
• Augmented Reality• Internet of Things• Virtual Reality• Big Data• 3D printing• Gamification
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Internet of Things
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Smart cities
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Sensor nets
Flood management
Landslides
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Smart grids
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Challenges in ICT
• Driving up Demand for energy• Adjusting to the low carbon world• Growth of Wireless• Critical National Infrastructure
– Spectrum– Electricity– Solar Flares
Robust decisions in uncertain times
It’s about the people…
• Food Security• Patterns of
Work/Career/Commuting….
• Values– Privacy– Social
Vertical Farms
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Governance
• International Organisations• Jurisdiction: tax and law• Social Innovation/Entrepreneurs• The “ John Lewis” Model• Decline of the PLC?• Sovereign Wealth/Private Equity/Family
owned
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Social Innovations of the Industrial Society
• Limited Liability Company• Co-op, Mutuals, Friendly societies, Building
societies• Trade Unions• Schools, Libraries, Museums, Modern University• Police, Fire Services• NHS• Local Authorities• ….
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
What we think we know
• Key Trends• Discontinuities• Roadblocks• Events
• The Asian Century?• Population and migration• Health• Education• Food security• Energy security• Climate and
Environment• Technology Progress• The Future is faster!
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
A trend is your friend until it bends
• Population– Ageing– Arab Spring– Women’s rights– Chinese migration– Resource Wars– Education and skills– Obesity
• Technology– R&D Productivity
Pharma– New materials:
Architecture– 3D Printing– Energy Security– Internet of Things
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Interaction between Technology and Society
• Social values• Open and Closed?• Institutional maturity• Legal Frameworks• Jurisdiction• War and instability
“The Stone Age didn’t finish because we ran out of stones”Sheik Yamani
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
What we tend to overlook
• Events: The next Los Angeles Earthquake• How many countries in 2035?• Religion…• How many companies from 1995 are still
around?. How many of today’s will exist in 2035?
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Change is exponential• Technology is inevitable• Important new products arrive ever faster• The rising tide of valuable information• Today’s high-tech price reductions are
unprecedented• Products are adopted faster• Invention gestation time is decreasing• The internet changes everything• Moore’s law really matters
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High-Technology Myths
Source: Futurehype, Bob Seidensticker
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Robust decisions in uncertain times
Thoughts on Energy Futures
• Centralised vs decentralised generation and consumption
• Systemic Risk• Local Solutions vs Global• Energy Saving and management• Market vs. State vs. ?• Fuel Poverty• Past over optimism on Nuclear?
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Why do we get it wrong?
• Today!!!• Prisoners of Language• Timing• Unintended consequences• Sources of Innovation• Ask the wrong question/people?• Culture: Cognitive Bias: Dominant Logic• Events
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