10-day forecasts for melbourne, initialized on tuesday 12 utc

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10-day forecasts for Melbourne, initialized on Tuesday 12 UTC

CloudCover

Precipitation

WindSpeed

Temperature

Melbourne, UK Melbourne, Australia Melbourne, Tennessee

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Impact of Rainfall Observationsin ECMWF 4D-Var Data Assimilation System

Peter Bauer, Philippe Lopez, Alan Geer, and Deborah Salmond

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Shinfield Park, Reading, Berkshire, RG2 9AX, [email protected]

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High-resolution non-linear model trajectory:1D-Var .OR. Rain observation operatorObservation-background departures:TCWV .OR. Rain affected radiances

Low-resolution linear model:4D-Var (.OR. + Rain observation) TL operator J

Low-resolution adjoint operator:4D-Var (.OR. + Rain observation) AD operator J

Iterative minimisation algorithm

Outerloop

Innerloop

High-resolution non-linear forecast

Model background state

Updated state

State increments

Analysis state

(1D+) 4D-Var Assimilation

FG state, error

Moist physics-RT model y(xb.i), F

xb, B

Satellite data yo, EyJ

xi

Adjoint: Moist physics-RT model

State update

xa, AAN

state

forward inverse

xJ

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(Courtesy G. Kelly)

Typhoon Matsa (04/08/2005 00 UTC)

Used SSM/I Clear-sky Channel 3 (22 GHz)

Used SSM/I 1D-Var

(GMS IR, DMSP F13-15)

Thin cirrus

Low-level stratus

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TCWV FG-Departures

(GMS IR, DMSP F13-15)

(Courtesy G. Kelly)

Model too dry

Model too moist

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HHHHHHHHHHHHLLLLLLLLLLLLL

HH

H

H

HLL

L

L

L

L

L

L

20.0m/sECMWF Analysis VT:Thursday 4 August 2005 00UTC Surface: **total column water vapour/50hPa v-velocity

ECMWF Analysis VT:Thursday 4 August 2005 00UTC Surface: mean sea level pressure

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MTSAT Infrared image of typhoon MATSA approaching Taiwanese and Chinese coast on August 4, 2005, 00 UTC.


4D-Var moisture increments with rain assimilation (colors in %), 900 hPa wind increments (white arrows), surface pressure (isolines).

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-1

b) Forecast Day +1 (20040801-20041031)

-10-5-3-2-1123510

-1-1

c) Forecast Day +2 (20040801-20041031)

-10-5-3-2-1123510

-1-1

-1

d) Forecast Day +3 (20040801-20041031)

-10-5-3-2-1123510

-1

-1

-1

-1

a) Analysis 00 UTC (20040801-20041031)

-10-5-3-2-1123510

Mean TCWV Analysis/Forecast Difference 08-10/2004Rain – No Rain

Analysis Day 2 (48h)

Day 3 (72h) Day 5 (120h)[kg m-2]

[kg m-2][kg m-2]

[kg m-2]

Global operational systems: ECMWF

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0.1

0.1

Mean esuite-osuite MSLP Analysis (20040801-20041030)

-1.2-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2-0.10.10.20.40.60.811.2

Mean MSLP Analysis Difference 08-10/2004Rain – No Rain

Rain Assimilationproduces larger MSLPthan control

Rain Assimilationproduces lower MSLPthan control

[hPa]


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0.3m/sMean esuite-osuite DIVWIND850: Analysis (20040801-20041030)

Mean 850 hPa Divergent Wind Analysis Difference 08-10/2004Rain – No Rain

Convergence

Divergence


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90% Statistical significance Improvement Deterioration

Mean Relative Humidity Forecast RMSE Difference 08-10/2004Rain – No Rain


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MSLP

TCWV

Meteosat VIS channel

imagery

AB

Case studies: South Atlantic 12Z, 14/08/2005

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TCWV [kg m-

2]

Tb departure [K]

SSMI channel

19v 19h 22v 37v 37h 85v 85h

FG 24.4 -8.1 -13.6 -6.5 -15.7 30.0 -7.8 -20.6

analysis 23.5 -0.6 0.3 0.3 -1.9 -2.0 -2.6 -5.7

Analysis

First guess

3D model

dewpoint

temperature

Case A: Stratiform Precipitation, high TCWV

Rain/snow Cloud water/ice Cloud cover

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Analysis

First guess

TCWV [kg m-

2]

Tb departure[K]

SSMI channel

19v 19h 22v 37v 37h 85v 85h

FG 7.6 4.5 7.9 2.0 4.2 8.8 4.1 12.0

analysis 8.8 2.0 1.3 -1.1 3.4 -1.8 13.3 5.5

3D model

Case B: Convective Precipitation, low TCWV

dewpoint

temperature

Rain/snow Cloud water/ice Cloud cover

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Rain FG-Departures

CY30R2/CY31R1: Moisture Analysis Rain – No Rain

AN-Differences

unbiased net drying

Rain FG-Departures AN-Differences

Example: 1st cycle ITCZ East Pacific:

Mean August 2004 TCWV difference:

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TCWV increments 1-cycle: 2005080100

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

980

980

980

980

1000

10001000

1000

1000 1000

1000

1020

1020

1020

1020

1020

1020

1020

1020 10201020

ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 1 August 2005 00UTC Surface: **total column water vapourECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 1 August 2005 00UTC Surface: mean sea level pressure

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10

15

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

976

976

976

992

992

992

992992

992992

1008

1008

1008

1008

1008

1008

1008

1008

1008

1008

1024

1024

10241024

ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 1 August 2005 00UTC Surface: **total column water vapourECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 1 August 2005 00UTC Surface: mean sea level pressure

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0.5

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15

1D+4D-Var Assimilation system (operational since June 2005)

Direct 4D-Var Assimilation system (experimental)

[kg m-2]

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Assimilation over Land: NCEP Stage IV rain accumulations

Observations: Combined hourly rain-gauge and NEXRAD radar precipitation accumulation.• ~1200 observations over continental US per 12-hour cycle.• Available in near real-time incl. quality indicators.Assimilation experiments:• T511L60, CY29R2, 20/05-20/06 2005;1D+4D-Var, 1D-Var uses only moist physics in observation operator.• Add Stage IV observations to operational data set:

Population: 0, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21

confidence: 90 population: 0, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 211000hPa Geopotential 00UTC

N.amer Lat 25.0 to 60.0 Lon -120.0 to -75.0Root m ean square error forecast

new m inus ctrlscatter plot

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15Population: 0, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21

confidence: 90 population: 0, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21, 21200hPa Geopotential 00UTC

N.atl Lat 25.0 to 65.0 Lon -70.0 to -10.0Root m ean square error forecast

new m inus ctrlscatter plot

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

RMSE Z1000 N.AMER (21 cases, own ana)

RMSE Z200 N.ATL (21 cases, own ana)

Global experimental systems: ECMWF

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noqUS – control noqUS+StageIV – noqUS

Mean differences of TCWV analyses at 00UTC

4D-Var Data Denial Experimentcontrol: all observations (incl. SSM/I rain

assimilation over oceans);

Experiments noqUS: withdraw TEMP-q, RH2m, HIRS, AMSU-B, SSM/I, AIRS, GOES-WV over US;

noqUS+StageIV: as noqUS but add Stage IV data.


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60°S60°S

30°S 30°S

0°0°

30°N 30°N

60°N60°N

120°W

120°W 60°W

60°W 0°

0° 60°E

60°E 120°E

120°E

ECMWF Analysis VT:Saturday 1 July 2006 00UTC Surface: **total column water vapour

kg/m2

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-0.25

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

2.5

5

10

Assimilation over Land: TRMM 2A12 Rain Rates

Mean TCWV analysis increments 1-25/07/2006 at 00UTC


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0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

20°W

20°W 10°W

10°W 0°

0° 10°E

10°E 20°E

20°E 30°E

30°E 40°E

40°E 50°E

50°ETCWV esx8: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-07-25 00:00:00 +24h

kg/m2

10

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

60

70

80

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

20°W

20°W 10°W

10°W 0°

0° 10°E

10°E 20°E

20°E 30°E

30°E 40°E

40°E 50°E

50°ETCWV eswt: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-07-25 00:00:00 +24h

kg/m2

10

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

60

70

80

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

20°W

20°W 10°W

10°W 0°

0° 10°E

10°E 20°E

20°E 30°E

30°E 40°E

40°E 50°E

50°ETCWV eswt - esx8 : 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-07-25 00:00:00 +24h

kg/m2

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-2.5

-1

-0.75

-0.5

-0.25

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

2.5

5

10

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

20°W

20°W 10°W

10°W 0°

0° 10°E

10°E 20°E

20°E 30°E

30°E 40°E

40°E 50°E

50°E24h Precipitation esx8: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-07-25 00:00:00 +0-24h

mm/day

1

2

3

5

7

10

12

15

20

30

50

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

20°W

20°W 10°W

10°W 0°

0° 10°E

10°E 20°E

20°E 30°E

30°E 40°E

40°E 50°E

50°E24h Precipitation eswt: 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-07-25 00:00:00 +0-24h

mm/day

1

2

3

5

7

10

12

15

20

30

50

0°0°

10°N 10°N

20°N20°N

30°N 30°N

20°W

20°W 10°W

10°W 0°

0° 10°E

10°E 20°E

20°E 30°E

30°E 40°E

40°E 50°E

50°E24h Precipitation eswt - esx8 : 2006-07-01 00:00:00 / 2006-07-25 00:00:00 +0-24h

mm/day

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0.2

0.4

1

2

4

10

20RR24h

TCWV RR24h

TCWV

24-hour Forecast Differences: Rain – No RainRain

Rain - No Rain


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Analysis system:General: 1st global operational 4D-Var system (since June 2005)!

Introduces first satellite observations in cloud/rain affected areas. Incremental 4D-Var efficient and well behaved.

Summary

Observations:- Radiance measurements provide sensitivity in both clear and cloudy conditions (compared to rain rate observations).- Microwave radiances very accurately measured, stable calibration, continuous availability from operational satellites.- Combined microphysics + microwave radiative transfer operator well behaved and not too non-linear.

Errors:- Observation + modelling errors can only be indirectly derived (but realistic).- Background errors require improved specification inside clouds/precipitation.

Control variable:- Desirable: Control variable that includes water vapour and condensates.

1D+4D-Var: Advantage: - additional quality control,- safe first implementation,

Disadvantage: - background fields are used twice,- only moisture increments provided to 4D-

Var,- loss of vertical information,- only instantaneous measurements are

assimilated.

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Future

• Employ 1D+4D-Var system with microwave sounder/imager observations over land surfaces.

• Fully implement direct 4D-Var radiance assimilation system:- make use of quality control lessons learned from 1D+4D-Var

system.- allow variable use of different imager/sounder channel

combinations as in clear-sky applications.- extend to infra-red observations from space.

• Requires: - Background error formulation that is more cloud/precipitation specific. - Developments towards total water control variable.

- Continuous efforts towards improved moist physics parameterizations.

Combined efforts of physics/data assimilation/satellite sections at ECMWF

Programmatic involvement: - Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) mission, NASA & JAXA, 2013+. - Post-EPS programme, Eumetsat, 2020+. - Earth Explorer programme, ESA, uncertain.

- WMO International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG).

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50.30 H 36.50 H

15.30 H 52.80 V

85.50 H 116.47 V

100.49 H 50.30 H

52.61 V 52.80 V

53.24 H 150.00 H

53.24 V 100.49 V

150.00 V 164.10 V 166.90 V 158.00 V

164.75 V

52.61 V 53.24 V

100.49 V 166.90 V

164.10 V

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

120.16 V 166.90 V

119.91 V 120.16 V

191.70 V 191.17 V

120.16 V 166.90 V

174.90 V

189.42 V 188.17 V 188.92 V 120.91 V 120.66 V 191.42 V 120.41 V 191.70 V

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

ocean land

AMSR-E+

AMSR-E+

AMSR-E+

AMSR-E+

Rain Snow

• Eumetsat Polar System (EPS) follow-on, 2020+ • Study on dedicated specifications for clouds and precipitation: channel selection• Channel identification and hydrometeor retrieval accuracy estimation (also with AMSR-E as baseline)

(Channel priorities for land/ocean surfaces, global profile datasets, optimal estimation theory, x-axis: mean entropy reduction)

Definition of passive microwave imager specs for post-EPS

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Andersson, E., P. Bauer, A. Beljaars, F. Chevallier, E. Hólm, M. Janisková, P. Kallberg, G. Kelly, P. Lopez, A. McNally, E. Moreau, A. Simmons and J.-N. Thépaut, 2005: Assimilation and Modelling of the Hydrological Cycle. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 387-402.

Andersson, E., E. Hólm, P. Bauer, A. Beljaars, G.A. Kelly, A.P. McNally, A.J. Simmons, and J.-N. Thépaut, 2006: Analysis and forecast impact of the main humidity observing system. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., submitted.

Bauer, P., J.-F. Mahfouf, S. di Michele, F.S. Marzano, W.S. Olson, 2002: Errors in TMI rainfall estimates over ocean for variational data assimilation. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2129-2144.

Bauer, P., E. Moreau, F. Chevallier, and U. O'Keefe, 2006: Multiple-scattering microwave radiative transfer for data assimilation applications. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1259-1281.

Bauer, P., P. Lopez, A. Benedetti, D. Salmond, and E. Moreau, 2006: Implementation of 1D+4D-Var assimilation of precipitation affected microwave radiances at ECMWF, Part I: 1D-Var. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.

Bauer, P., P. Lopez, A. Benedetti, D. Salmond, S. Saarinen and M. Bonazzola, 2006: Implementation of 1D+4D-Var assimilation of precipitation affected microwave radiances at ECMWF, Part II: 4D-Var. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.

Benedetti, A., P. Lopez, P. Bauer, and E. Moreau, 2005: Experimental use of TRMM Precipitation Radar observations in 1D+4D-Var assimilation. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2473-2495.

Benedetti, A., P. Lopez, E. Moreau, P. Bauer and V. Venugopal. 2005: Verification of TMI-Adjusted Rainfall Analyses of Tropical Cyclones at ECMWF Using TRMM Precipitation Radar. J. Appl. Meteor., 44, 1677-1690.

Chevallier, F., P. Bauer, J.-F. Mahfouf, and J.-J. Morcrette, 2002: Variational retrieval of cloud profiles from ATOVS observations., Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2511-2525.

Chevallier, F. and P. Bauer, 2003: Model rain and clouds over oceans: Comparison with SSM/I observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1240-1255.

Errico, R., P. Bauer, and J.-F. Mahfouf, 2006: Assimilation of cloud and precipitation data: Current issues and future prospects. J. Atmos. Sci., submitted.

Lopez, P., and E. Moreau, 2005: A convection scheme for data assimilation: Description and initial tests. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 409--436.

Lopez, P., A. Benedetti, P. Bauer, M. Janisková, M. and M. Köhler, 2006: Experimental 2D-Var assimilation of ARM cloud and precipitation observations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 1325-1347.

Mahfouf, J.-F., P. Bauer, and V. Marécal, 2003: The comparative impact of the assimilation of SSM/I and TMI rainfall rates in the ECMWF 4D-Var system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 437-458.

Marécal V. and J.-F. Mahfouf, 2000: Variational retrieval of temperature and humidity profiles from TRMM precipitation data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3853-3866.

Marécal, V., J.-F. Mahfouf, and P. Bauer, 2002: Comparison of TMI rainfall estimates and their impact on four-dimensional variational rainfall assimilation. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2737-2758.

Marécal V. and J.-F. Mahfouf, 2002: Four-dimensional variational assimilation of total column water vapour in rainy areas. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 43-58.

Marécal V. and J.-F. Mahfouf, 2003: Experiments on 4D-Var assimilation of rainfall data using an incremental formulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 3137-3160

Moreau, E., P. Bauer, and F. Chevallier, 2002: Variational retrieval of rain profiles from spaceborne passive microwave radiance observations. J. Geophys. Res., 203, D16, 4521, doi: 10.1029/2002JD003315, ACL11-1-ACL11-18.

Moreau, E., P. Lopez, P. Bauer, A. Tompkins, M. Janisková, and F. Chevallier, 2003: Rainfall vs. microwave brightness temperature assimilation: A comparison of 1D-Var results using TMI and SSM/I observations. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 827-852.

O'Dell, C.W., P. Bauer, and R. Bennartz, 2006: A fast cloud overlap parameterization for microwave radiance assimilation. J. Atmos. Sci., submitted.

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