2011 Partners in Preparedness Conference2011 Partners in Preparedness Conference

10 things you need to know about the 10 things you need to know about the l i b k dl i b k dvolcano in your backyardvolcano in your backyard

Cynthia Gardner and Carolyn DriedgerU.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory26 April 2011

Course Outline

1 Your volcano will erupt again1. Your volcano will erupt again2. You will get warning (monitoring, messages)3. The warnings will not be black and white, i.e, there is a

l t f t i t i d li ith l i ti itlot of uncertainty in dealing with volcanic activity4. Emergency managers will need to make decisions and

take actions long before outcomes are known5. The types of hazards are known - IAVCEI video6. Near-source hazards can develop rapidly - evacuation

prior to an event will be necessary (issues about long-prior to an event will be necessary (issues about longterm evacuation; funding for closures, etc.)

Course outline (cont.)

7. Lahars (volcanic mudflows) follow river valleys that start on volcanoes - affects may last long after eruption is overvolcanoes affects may last long after eruption is over

8 Tephra (volcanic ash) moves in the direction and at the speed of the wind - it will take time to get downwind

9 Th l l t t t b th l th t9. The volcano closest to you may not be the one only one that affects you

10. Volcanic eruptions can last for days to years and do not have to be large to be disruptive

Bringing it home to your communityBringing it home to your communityScenario

Do you have questions that you want answered in this course?Do you have questions that you want answered in this course?

Your volcano will erupt againSubduction is the process behind many hazards in the PNW

1Subduction is the process behind many hazards in the PNW

• Subduction earthquakes >>> volcanic earthquakes• Volcanic eruptions are rarely triggered by a subduction eqs

Your volcano will erupt againC d l h l lif d t hi t iCascade volcanoes have long life spans and recent histories

Your volcano will erupt againp gNot all volcanic eruptions occur at the big volcanoes

By Jason Brewer, 1977

You will be warned2

Volcanoes often give days to months of warning

As magma moves to the surface:As magma moves to the surface: Surface deformation

•• It breaks a pathwayIt breaks a pathway•• It releases gasesIt releases gases•• The chamber or conduit mayThe chamber or conduit mayThe chamber or conduit may The chamber or conduit may increase or decrease in volumeincrease or decrease in volume

These processes result in effects These processes result in effects that we can measure: that we can measure:

•• EarthquakesEarthquakes•• Emission of magmatic gasesEmission of magmatic gasesEmission of magmatic gases, Emission of magmatic gases, principally COprincipally CO22 and S gasesand S gases•• Ground deformationGround deformation

Input ofmagmaInput ofmagma

You will be warnedM it i i ti l t l d t ti f t tiMonitoring is essential to early detection of unrest, eruption

and hazardous events

USGS mandate is to provide warningp gUSGS alertUSGS alert--level system focuses on the state of the volcano with an level system focuses on the state of the volcano with an

emphasis on ash for the aviation communityemphasis on ash for the aviation community

TERM COLOR DESCRIPTIONDESCRIPTIONAlert level Aviation Color Code

Volcano is in normal non-eruptive state

Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest

GREEN

YELLOWElevated unrest above known

NORMAL

ADVISORY

Typical background, non-eruptive state

Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background levels

Volcano is exhibiting heightened/escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption

OR ti d ith

YELLOW

ORANGE

Elevated unrest above known background activity

Heightened/escalating unrest with increasedpotential for eruptive activity. timeframe variable OR minor eruption underway

ADVISORY

WATCHOR, eruption underway with no or

minor ash emissions

Eruption is forecasted to be imminent with significant emission of ash into the

atmosphere likely OR, RED

variable, OR, minor eruption underway that poses limited hazards

Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminentWARNING p y

Eruption is underway with significant ash into the atmosphere

or imminent

You will be warnedKnow your communication links

C ll DCall Downsex. Mount St. Helens

C ll d d hCall downs are used when changing alert-levels, to update officials about a

significant change insignificant change in activity, or when eruptive

activity ceases

How do you fit into this call down?

You will be warnedKnow all of your sources of information and how youKnow all of your sources of information and how you

will be informed

Scientific information:Scientific information:• USGS and PNSN for volcanic activity•USGS for warning - Alert•USGS for warning - Alert Level System• USGS and NWS for ash fall and lahar warningsand lahar warnings

Response Information• NIMS/ Unified Command

Websites: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov

S/ U ed Co a d• Interagency response plans

Public information• Media• Social media

Alert Level Change - Normal to AdvisoryProbably most difficult step for scientists

Diffic lt to pinpoint hen something is o t of the ordinar• Difficult to pinpoint when something is out of the ordinary• Likely to bring intense media scrutiny• Joint Information Center likely needed• Responders should start reviewing plans• Conference calls• No promise of that an eruption will occurNo promise of that an eruption will occur

Warnings will not be B&W3

Scientists cannot directly measure the magma system

Like weather systems uncertaintySurface

deformation Like weather systems, uncertainty about outcome (size, style, timing, eruption/no eruption, vent area) is high

deformation

high

Unlike weather systems, we don’t yet have physics-based models to

Everything we want to know is

forecast outcome

beneath ground and we don’t yet have instruments to directly measure what it is that we

o ld like to knoInput ofmagma would like to knowmagma

Warnings will not be B&WWarnings will not be B&WAll Cascade volcanoes show a range in eruptive size and style

The 1980s eruption was about 5 times larger than the 2004 to 2008 eruption; largest MSH event about 6 to 8 times larger than the 1980-86 event.

Warnings will not be B&WWarnings will not be B&WVent location determines what areas will be affected

Warnings will not be B&WV l i t ll l t l th th t lV l i t ll l t l th th t lVolcanic unrest generally lasts longer than other natural Volcanic unrest generally lasts longer than other natural

hazardshazards

Event DurationWarningHazardous Event Weeks to

monthsDays Days Weeks to

monthsMonths to years

Flood

Hurricane

y

Earthquake/tsunami

Hurricane

Wildfire

Eruption

Wildfire

Hazardous events can occur during unrestHazardous events can occur during unrest

EMs will need to make decisions long EMs will need to make decisions long before outcomes are knownbefore outcomes are known

5

“Decision window”

before outcomes are knownbefore outcomes are known

for public officials

Shape, character, aram

eter

s

p , ,duration very irregular

Build-up suggests eruption is likelyni

torin

g pa

eruption is likely

Cannot guarantee that eruption will not occursi

ty o

f mon

e up o o occu

Inte

ns

Time

EMs will need to make decisions long before outcomes are known

Eruption1

before outcomes are knowns

Decision window for Eruption1 Eruption 3

aram

eter

s public officials

onito

ring

pans

ity o

f mo

Back tosleepBack to

sleep2 4

Inte

n

Time

Decision making across culturesScientists and public officials who understand eachScientists and public officials who understand each other’s culture beforehand, will likely work well together

Scientists

Public officials

We all want to succeed, we all need to succeed

Volcano hazardsN t thi ill ff t t

5

Not everything will affect you at once

•• Proximal areas ( ≤15 mi) subject Proximal areas ( ≤15 mi) subject t lti l l th l h dt lti l l th l h d i tto multiple lethal hazards: to multiple lethal hazards: minutes to tens of minutes

•• Intermediate areas (> 15 <100) Intermediate areas (> 15 <100) Lahars, tephra fall and floods affect Lahars, tephra fall and floods affect river valleys: river valleys: tens of minutes to hours

•• Distal hazards (>100 mi) Distal hazards (>100 mi) -- Tephra Tephra fall affects areas downwind: fall affects areas downwind: hour(s) to days( ) y

•• Excess sediment in watersheds Excess sediment in watersheds reduces flood capacity: reduces flood capacity: week(s) to decadesdecades

Volcano Hazards

IAVCEI videoIAVCEI videoInternational Association for

Volcanology and Chemistry of theVolcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior

Volcano hazardsN t thi ill ff t tNot everything will affect you at once

•• Proximal areas ( ≤15 mi) subject Proximal areas ( ≤15 mi) subject t lti l l th l h dt lti l l th l h d i tto multiple lethal hazards: to multiple lethal hazards: minutes to tens of minutes

•• Intermediate areas (> 15 <100) Intermediate areas (> 15 <100) Lahars, tephra fall and floods affect Lahars, tephra fall and floods affect river valleys: river valleys: tens of minutes to hours

•• Distal hazards (>100 mi) Distal hazards (>100 mi) -- Tephra Tephra fall affects areas downwind: fall affects areas downwind: hour(s) to days( ) y

•• Excess sediment in watersheds Excess sediment in watersheds reduces flood capacity: reduces flood capacity: week(s) to decadesdecades

Proximal hazards6

Near source hazards can develop rapidly

30 i t l i ti30 minutes or less warning time too short to detect the activity, give warning and take action

Officials have difficult decisions:• Limiting access• Road closures• Evacuations• Alternate escape routes• Warning system• Securing the closed area• Securing the closed area• Recovery issues

Big questions -- duration, g quest o s du at o ,resources and resiliency

Lahar hazardsL h i ll th t t t th l

7

Lahars occur in valleys that start on the volcano; generally not all valleys affected

Know which rivers start on your lvolcano

Ask scientists where the most likely vent area will be and what rivers it might affect

Have a plan to deal with reservoirs on potentially ff t d iaffected rivers

Lahar hazardsLahar hazardsHazards can persist long after an eruption is over

Lahar hazardsa a a a dsHazards can persist long after an eruption is over

Bridge crossing immediately affected by the eruption; months latermonths later

Some communities in the Philippines were not affected untilPhilippines were not affected until years to a decade after the eruption

Tephra (ash) hazards8

Tephra (ash) hazardsTephra moves in the direction(s) of and at the speed(s) of the wind

How far downwind are you? In what direction?

Tephra (ash) hazardsep a (as ) a a dsTephra affects aviation, which may impede recovery efforts

• ~2000 flights over the Cascades daily• Ash can reach cruise altitudes in a matter of minutes

How would reduced aviation affect your recovery?

Tephra (ash) hazardsM i 1980Many more resources since 1980

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/ash/

A distal volcano may affect you the mostTephra (ash) can affect communities far from sourceTephra (ash) can affect communities far from sourceTephra (ash) can affect communities far from sourceTephra (ash) can affect communities far from source

9

Eruption duration10

Volcanic events can last for weeks, months, decadesVolcanic events can last for weeks, months, decades

Event DurationWarningHazardous Event Weeks to

monthsDays Days Weeks to

monthsMonths to years

Flood

Hurricane

y

Earthquake/tsunami

Hurricane

Wildfire

Eruption

Wildfire

Eruption durationEruption durationYour volcano may be above or below average

Mount St. Helens, WA: 1980-86Mount St. Helens: 2004-08

Kasatochi, AK 2008: 20 hoursOkmok, AK 2008: 3 weeksRedoubt, AK: 1989-1990; 5 monthsC t P k AK 1992 3 5 th

A d ti <6

Crater Peak, AK: 1992, 3.5 months

Unzen Volcano, Japan: 1991-1994Sourfriere Hills, Volcano, Montserrat: Average duration <6 mos , ,1995 - presentSanta Maria Voclano, Guatemala: 1923 - present

Small eruptions can be disruptiveEven small explosive eruptions have had world-wide affects

E-15 eruption was small, but affected millions in Europe

Lightning often occurs during ash eruptions; can affecteruptions; can affect nearby power and communications

Re-suspension of ash affected Icelandic communities for months afterwards

Small eruptions can be destructivepHot rocks interacting with snow and ice can generate large lahars

23 000 l l t th i li h23,000 people lost their lives hours after a small eruption at Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia in 1985

Above: Nevado del Ruiz Right: The town of Amero after the about 1 month after the catastropic er ption onthe catastropic eruption on 13 November 1985

Bringing it home to your community

• Get to know the hazards in your communityyour community• Know the interagency response plan for your community• Know what materials are available for training your g yCERT team• Include volcanoes in your multi hazard trainingmulti-hazard training• Know how to inform your community (learn, inquire, plan)

Bringing it home to your communityK h t h d ff tKnow what hazards affect your area

• Are you affected by lahars?• Do you have a regional lava flow hazard?• Are you directly or indirectly affected by volcanic events?

H ld h ff t• How could ash affect your recovery plans/ability to help a neighboring jurisdiction?

Bringing it home to your communityF ili i lf ith th h d d th thFamiliarize yourself with the hazards and the ways they

could affect your community

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/publications/assessments.php

Bringing it home to your communityF ili i lf ith ’ l dFamiliarize yourself with your agency’s response plan, and

your role in unified command

At the JIC - MSH crisis October 2004

Bringing it home to your communityg g y yAdd volcano preparations to your CERT multi-hazard

training materialsg

Bringing it home to your communityBringing it home to your communityMessages USGS gives to the public

• Learn—Become knowledgeable about volcano issues. Learn whether you live, work or go to school in a volcano hazard zone.

• Inquire---Ask public officials how they advise you to respondto respond.

• Plan---For how you and your family will respond in the event of any natural disaster.in the event of any natural disaster.

The goal of planning is to prevent natural processes from becomingnatural processes from becoming

human disasters

Cascades Volcano Observatory Cascades Volcano Observatory y360-993-8973 www.vulcan.usgs.gov

y360-993-8973 www.vulcan.usgs.gov

Scenario - Mount HoodScenario Mount Hood

What’s at risk - Mount Hood• Community of Government Camp at base of volcano; other communities within 30 minutes of being affected by lahars

• Hwys 26 and 35. Hwy 26, major route to central Oregon with over 8200 vehicles passing by Government Camp daily.

•• Major air traffic route into Portland, flying at altitudes <25k; over 600Major air traffic route into Portland, flying at altitudes 25k; over 600 commercial flights/day = ~120,000 people/day; ~1700 tons/day air cargo; 30th largest airport in the U.S.

• Bull Run watershed major water supply to Portland; some pipes still• Bull Run watershed, major water supply to Portland; some pipes still exposed in lahar hazard zone

•• Four ski areas; summer training grounds for US Ski Team. Prime backcountry recreational area.

• Iconic Timberline Lodge on flank of volcano; major tourist destination

Potential to affect Col mbia Ri er ater a barging fish ater q alit• Potential to affect Columbia River waterway: barging, fish, water quality

Hazard zones - Mount HoodHazard zones Mount Hood

Mount Hood eruptive stylep y

•Few sustained explosive events (>1Few sustained explosive events ( 1 hour)

• Lava flow or lava dome growth and collapse collapses difficult tocollapse - collapses difficult to predict

•Dome collapse results in hot rock interacting with snow and ice to produce lahars

• Dome collapse results in ash pclouds lofting to altitudes of 15,000 to 30,000 feet and drifting downwind (normally eastward)

How are you being affected?How are you being affected?How are you getting information?y g g

What information do you want?

What actions are you taking? Unified Command/JIC?

?How are your resources holding up?

How are you getting information out?y g g

What questions are you getting from your community? From the media?From the media?

Notes or Action Items

Notes or Action Items

Mount Hood scenario: Days 1-14Mount Hood scenario: Days 1 14• Day 1: USGS detects eq swarm; nothing unusual mentions swarm in weekly update

• Day 3: Swarm continues; USGS releases Information Statement noting continued activity; picked up by some local media

• Day 6 (Saturday night): Three mid-M3 eqs and 5 high M2 eqs rock volcano; felt y ( y g ) q g qat TL and Govt. Camp; USGS changes Alert Level to Advisory early Sunday a.m.

• Day 7: Poor weather, can’t see volcano; media calls increase considerably: eqs continuing mostly M1s and 2s but at higher rateq g y g

• Day 9: Weather clears; detection of minor CO2 and H2S; no obvious changes at volcano, but eqs continue as do media inquiries

• Day 10: Several more M3 eqs; mid-day under clear skys, steam and ash emission; higher gas output; USGS raises alert level to Watch; USFS closes down mountain • Day 14: First steam and ash emission to 25 000 ft ; last 10 minutes and• Day 14: First steam and ash emission to 25,000 ft.; last 10 minutes and drifts eastwards; vents located north of Devil’s kitchen area

Mount Hood scenario: Days 14-28Mount Hood scenario: Days 14 28• Day 14: First steam and ash emission to 25,000 ft.; last 10 minutes and drifts eastwards; vents located north of Devil’s kitchen area;

• Day 15: Another steam and ash emission to 20,000 ft lasting 25 minutes, moving westward; instrument placed on Crater Rock to look at movement: gas output increases; media and tourists flocking to areap g

• Day 16-19: Poor weather and intense rain; instrument suggests movement of Crater Rock, but no confirmation due to weather; two more explosion signals; small lahar generated in White and ZigZag rivers

• Day 20: Good weather; Gas output increased 2 fold since last measurement, with notable SO2; USGS indicates unrest increasing, but does not change alert level; lahars appear related to rain, not volcanic activity• Days 21-28: Good weather continues; gas measurements up, but steam and ash explosions cease; eqs continuing at moderate levels; public interest high; minor movement of Crater Rock

How are you being affected?

No declaration - will you be able to maintain vigilance?

What information do you need to make decisions?

Are any areas closed?Are any areas closed?

What pressures may be pushing back at you?

Mount Hood scenario: Days 28-49• Days 21-28: Good weather continues; gas measurements up, but steam and ash explosions cease; eqs continuing at moderate levels; public interest high; minor movement of Crater Rockmovement of Crater Rock

• Day 32, July 4th weekend: New seismic signal appears, USGS believes eruption imminent, raises alert level to highest level (Warning)

• Day 35: No eruption has occurred, USGS decreases alert level back to intense unrest (Watch)

•Day 40, late evening: size of eqs decreasing, but rate increasing; glow seen in y g q g g gDevil’s Kitchen area; Alert level raised to Warning

• Day 41: Lava dome extrusion begins. Later in day, explosion destroys growing dome and sends ash to 35,000 feet drifting westward; small lahar generated do e a d se ds as to 35,000 eet d t g est a d; s a a a ge e ateddown White River

• Day 49: Lava dome growth continues, grows rapidly, major failure in mid-day sends lahar down White and Sandy River: on White reaches confluence withsends lahar down White and Sandy River: on White reaches confluence with Deschutes, on Sandy reaches town of Sandy, 20 feet thick in Welches…

Friday, 29 August (3 years later)

A small dome collapse yesterday was 200th collapse since the eruption began; ash cloud p p greached 25k feet, ash drifting westward; Portland received light dusting

Alert Level has been downgraded to Watch/Warning from Warning/Red as there is no longer any collapse activity

Gas, seismicity still well above background

In the past 3 years ago, > 90 ft of sediment has been deposited in former location of Timberline Lodge and in headwaters of Sandy River; river has aggraded over 45 ft in reach near Welches; air traffic has been disrupted for parts to all of 115 days out of past 1095 days since eruption beganparts to all of 115 days out of past 1095 days since eruption began

Notes or Action Items

Get to know the hazards in your community

Mo nt BakerMount Baker

Get to know the hazards in your community

Glacier PeakGlacier Peak

Get to know the hazards in your community

Mount RainierMount Rainier

Get to know the hazards in your community

Mount AdamsMount Adams

Get to know the hazards in your community

Mount St HelensMount St. Helens

Get to know the hazards in your community

Mount HoodMount Hood