10 things you should know about the us debt ceiling _ firstpost.pdf
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The American government is staring at a big problem ahead. Come 17 October, and it will hit the debt ceiling set by the American Congress. If this
happens it will have global implications. Given that, it is important to understand what the debt ceiling really means and how it can impact the whole
world.
So what is the debt ceiling?
The American government, like almost every government in the world, spends more than what it earns. The difference between what it spends and
what it earns is met through borrowing money. There is an overall limit to the amount the American government can borrow. This limit is currently
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10 things you should know about the US debt ceiling
by Vivek KaulOct 9, 2013
#American Treasury Secretary Jack Lew#Barack Obama#Debt Ceiling Crisis#HowThisWorks#John Boehner#US#US Debt Ceiling
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set at $16.69 trillion.
So what will actually happen on 17 October?
The American Treasury Secretary Jack Lew (equivalent of the finance minister in India) has said that on 17 October, the Treasury department will
run out of the extraordinary measures it had put in place to ensure that the government doesnt cross the debt ceiling of $16.69 trillion. Since May
2013, Lew has taken a number of extraordinary measures, like delaying pension fund payments, to ensure that the government expenditure remain
under control and hence, the government does not cross the debt ceiling.
So the American government will run out of money on 17 October?
The answer to this question is not very clear. Lew has said that as on October 17,the government will be left to meet our countrys commitments
at that time with only approximately $30bn.
And this amount will not be enough to meet expenditures of the government, which on certain days can be as high as $60 billion. He has not
clarified the exact expected expenditure of the American government as on October 17. Hence, we dont know if the American government will
run out of money on October 17.
So when will the American government actually run out of money?
There are various estimates going around on this. Most analysts agree that the government wont run out of money on 18 October, and will keep
chugging along for a brief while.
The Bipartisan Policy Center expects this date to be anywhere between 22 October and 1 November.
As it points outUpdated data on Treasury cash flows through the first week of October show that the range for the Bipartisan Policy Centers
(BPC) X Date the date on which the United States will be unable to meet all of its financial obligations in full and on time has narrowed to
between October 22 and November 1.
Economists at JP Morgan have come up with a more precise date of October 24th. As an article on Time.compoints out They (i.e. the
economists at JP Morgan) write that it is extremely unlikely the Treasury will be able to make its payments more than a few days after the 24th,
and that the Treasury would most certainly have to default on some payments by 1 November, when large outlays for Social Security, Medicare,
retirement benefits for military and civil services workers, and interest payments are due.
What will happen on 17 October? AFP photo
So what will be the impact of this?
The expenditure of the American government will be greater than its income. Until now it has been able to borrow money to finance the gap. It
wont be able to borrow any more. Given that, it will have to cut down on its expenditure.
As Eric Posner writes on Slate.com:
If the debt ceiling is not raised, and the executive branch stops borrowing, the government will need to cut spending by about 15 to
20 percentor almost 40 percent of spending on everything (yes, Medicare and defense) other than the interest on the debt.
The impact of the cut in expenditure will be immediate. As Henry J Aaron writes in The New York TimesA decision to cut spending enough to
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avoid borrowing would instantaneously slash outlays by approximately $600 billion a year. Cutting payments to veterans, Social Securit
benefits and interest on the national debt by half would just about do the job. But such cuts would not only illegally betray promises to
veterans, the elderly and disabled and bondholders.
Other than having economic consequences, this cut in expenditure will also have social consequences. As Mark Blyth writes in Austerity The
History of a Dangerous Idea in a slightly different context but still applicable in this case, Seventy-two percent of the working population(in
America) live paycheck to paycheck, have few if any savings, and would have trouble raising $2000 at short notice. There are, as far as
we can tell, about 70 million handguns in the United States. So what would happen ifno paychecks were being paid out?
Hence, cutting expenditure can have dramatic social and economic consequences.
So why is the American government doing nothing about this?
As must be clear by now the consequences of the American government hitting the debt ceiling and not being able to meet its expenditure, will be
disastrous. Given this, why hasnt the government done something about it? Why havent they increased the debt ceiling?
The answer lies in the fact that the two houses of the American Congress are currently in a logjam. The House of Representatives is dominated by
the Republican Party and the Senate is dominated by the Democratic Party. And both the parties are refusing to talk to each other. The
Republicans believe that fiscal profligacy of the American government has gone on for too long and needs to be reined in.
In fact, many Republican Congressmen are not concerned about the debt ceiling at all. As Senator Richard Burr recently said Im not as
concerned as the president is on the debt ceiling, because the only people buying our bonds right now is the Federal Reserve. So its like scaring
ourselves.
So are Republicans right on only the Federal Reserve buying government bonds?
This statement has been true in the recent past. The Federal Reserve of United States, the American central bank has been printing money to buy
American government bonds. This helps the government finance its fiscal deficit. Fiscal deficit is the difference between between what a
government earns and what it spends.
But Burrs statement does not take into account the fact that foreign countries hold nearly $5.6 trillion of American government bonds. In
comparison, the treasury holds bonds worth $1.93 trillion. These bonds were issued by the American government to borrow money to finance its
fiscal deficit.
Interest on these bonds needs to be paid. Also, maturing bonds needs to be repaid. The American government has reached a stage, where it pays
the interest on bonds as well as repays maturing bonds, by raising money by selling new bonds and taking on more debt. Any decision to stop
paying interest on bonds or default on maturing bonds, will lead to a global financial crisis.
As Posner writes: If he(i.e Obama) stops interest payments, the United States will default. This will not only raise interest payments
costing taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollarsbut could spark a financial panic like the meltdown of 2008.
The US government bonds are the ultimate risk free asset. If the government defaults on interest payments and/or principal repayment, then
investors all over the world are going to exit all kinds of financial markets. No wonder China which holds more than a trillion dollars of American
government bonds is worried. The Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao recently saidWe naturally are paying attention to financial
deadlock in the U.S. and reasonably demand that the U.S. guarantee the safety of Chinese investment there.
So that brings us back to the question why arent Republicans and Democrats talking?
This basically boils down to the fact that Republican Congressmen seem to be confident that the government is in a position to work its way around
the debt ceiling. As Senator Orrin Hatch recently said: I think the administration could work on who gets paid and who doesnt in a way thatwould pull us through.
It is easy to ask the government to prioritize payments, but anything done around those lines could have serious legal implications.
It needs to be pointed out that there are no legal provisions to decide which expenditure should be cut first.
There is no clear legal basis for deciding what programs to cut. Defense contractors, or Medicare payments to doctors? Education
grants, or the F.B.I.? Endless litigation would follow. No matter how the cuts might be distributed, they would, if sustained for more tha
a very brief period, kill the economic recovery and cause unemployment to return quickly to double digits, Aaron points out in The New
York Times.
The politicians on both the sides are also taking it easy because the markets havent reacted to this lack of communication between the two politica
parties on the debt ceiling. As Senator Hatch put it I dont think the markets have been spooked so far, and I personally believe that if they
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/10/07/republican_senator_we_can_crash_into_debt_limit_because_the_only_people.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404579121353213485532.html?mod=rss_US_Newshttp://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/10/07/republican_senator_we_can_crash_into_debt_limit_because_the_only_people.html -
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realized there was a legitimate attempt to make the government work, they would be less likely [to be spooked].
So why havent the markets reacted?
The debt ceiling has been in place since 1939. And since then the American Congress has raised it numerous times to allow the government to
borrow more. As an article in the Christian Science Monitorpoints outAn overall cap on federal debt has been in place since 1939, and
Congress has raised it numerous times since then. The Treasury Department counts 78 times since 1960.
What has happened 78 times is also likely to happen one more time.
This explains why the various financial markets in America and around the world continue to remain stable and are not taking into account thepossibility of another crisis.
As Bill Gross manager of the worlds biggest bond fund, told Bloomberg Television The odds of a default are a million-to-one as the Treasury
Department will be able to take other measures to ensure it is servicing the countrys debt.
Hence, the market is currently expecting the Republicans and the Democrats to sit down and solve the problem before October 17.
So will the markets continue to remain stable?
Thats a tricky question to answer. The closer we get to 17 October without any solution in sight, the more the stability of the markets will be
threatened. In fact, if the American stock market falls it might even get the Republicans and the Democrats to start talking.
As John Cassidy of The New Yorkermagazines writes on his blog If the market fell by, say, three or four hundred points for three days in a
row, and then lurched down another eight hundred points, or even a thousand points, the effect would be salutary. How can I say that?
Tens of millions of Americans would grow alarmed about their 401k plans. On Wall Street, there would be margin calls, liquidity runs,
and other disturbing developments that inevitably accompany market breaks. Rumors would start to spread about the health of various
financial institutions. You dont have to subscribe to a tail-wags-the-dog view of finance and politics to believe that this would lead to a
rapid change of thinking, and of behaviour, in Washington.
This will get the two sides talking on the debt ceiling for sure.
Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek
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Sumit
I mustthank you for this great comprehensive clear and simply written article. Very simply written easily understandable.!
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An urag
good one
4
kuriakose
Simplification spoils the spirit of economics
3
Sridhar Garikipati
Explained in a most simpler way, good article.
5
Siddiq
Thanks vivek, for explaining in a very simple and effective manner. The need of the hour is economists/journalists/writers write
more on the ponzi schemes of the governments in particular in a simple languages understood by the masses. The
governments are running these ponzi schemes on the ignorance of the masses, this ignorance stems from the fact that not
everybody is from an economics background. And these ponze scheme operators using complex sounding teminology(ex.
Quantitative Easing) to make it appear as something with lot of theory behind but if the same is explained "print money and
distribute to banks" there would atleast be some revolt or anguish or apprehension in the general public.
Modern Banking is also one such ponzi scheme. Hope to see some thought provoking article on "The Modern day Banking" by
you some day.
It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and money system, for if they did, I believe there
would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford, founder of the Ford Motor Company.
8
The Dude
Insightful, articulate and comprehensive writing by Mr Kaul as always! Can you please hold a masterclass for some of the othe
FirstPost "writers" so that they stop pushing out inane BS masquerading as 'insights'/news.
4
Bharat Bhakta
Very informative Article by Vivek...As always..Are u suggestin that we are sitting on a tickin bomb?
Vivek Kaul
I think they will resolve it. The consequences of not resolving it are too explosive...The Republicans ultimately need to go
back to the electorate.
1
Bharat Bhakta
They will surely but isnt this just delaying the inevitable...This debt celing coupled with QE.....Is it another bubble?
ndd
knowing that US is profligate and if it defaults why should investors exit from other markets. should it not be that investors of US
should lose faith in US and run to other markets. over the last few quarters it is being reported that even if US economy
improves than investors run to safer shores namely US, even if they default still they will exit other markets this is not
understood.
in india our industrialists are very eager to lose faith in economy and invest abroad.
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same.
ultimately as long as you raise debt to pay interest, and earlier debts what does it reflect of the country. in india the savings rate
is 50 to 60% whereas 72% americans live on paycheck to paycheck. here people survive even if they don;t get any paycheck b
doing odd jobs and there every body is worrried about social effects
so why does every body get so spooked about US and instead reflect on their wrongs and in general stop giving this importanc
that every time US sneezes the world gets cold and reduce the dollar hegemony of the world.
Siddharth
That's because most of the big governments have heavily invested in US Treasury paper. Should US default, that would
severely erode their balance sheets and result in a avalanche of crises across global financial markets.
ComicProject
Obama is such an idiot, just pass an ordinance...MMS goes to the US and doesnt give Obama any good advice
10
letsdiscuz
Great Post, Vivek. Thanks for the information.
3
Siddharth
Thanks for the article, Vivek. What impact do you foresee on the Indian stock markets should the debt ceiling be raised (which I
think is the most probable option)?
2
Rachit Gupta
Nice article. Can you also explain why did they decided to have a limit or why don't they just remove the limit when it is evident
that there is no significance of having it
1
Vivek Kaul
Its a political which each side uses to blackmail the other side. As far as I understand the American constitution does
not have a provision for a debt ceiling
2
Vivek Kaul
I meant political tool
1
Raveesh Kote
Great one Vivek!!! I have one doubt. You mention that most of the governments spend more than they earn. And to borrow
money they issue bonds for which interest needs to be paid. They pay the interests for the existing bonds by issuing more
bonds (I understand govt will have income source as well but atleast some percentage will go for this). So the govts across the
world are running ponzi schemes?
6
Vivek Kaul
Yes governments around the world are running Ponzi schemes. You are right.
18
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Why Muslim faces in Mod is K anpur rally may not turn
into votes
u people talk as if india's destiny is in hands
of muslims only and hindus r just to feed the muslim
Kanpur Rally: Narendra Modi unveils a new strategy
I remember that way back in 2004 or sometime
around that, Modi commented on rahul gandhi "he is not
Kanpur rally: Is Modi a hoax or is he for real? The
doubt lingers
Modi is hoax or Real, we don't know but we know
90 percent media is offers paid service, Pay Per
In the Modi vs Rahul clamour, real issues are missed
Wah Mr. Patel. Your syndicated articles which
appear in Pakistan tribune as well, are
Ayus h
If the governments around the world are running on Ponzi schemes and running on borrowed money then who i
the ultimate beneficiary ?
Niraj Upadhyay
the 1%!! why?? because they sit at the top of the ponzi scheme!
1
SM
Excellent piece. Thanks Vivek
Suffering S aint
another great article Vivek
1
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MORE FROM
Vivek Kaul
US debt rises: Why the American Ponzi scheme might just keep running
Oct 19, 2013
October 16, 2013 The day 50-over cricket died
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8/14/2019 10 things you should know about the US debt ceiling _ Firstpost.pdf
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VIEW MOR
Oct 19, 2013
Debt ceiling absurdity: How the US Fed is running a ponzi scheme
Oct 17, 2013
The theory that caused the financial crisis, gets a Nobel prize
Oct 15, 2013
Inflation at 8 month high is a sure spoiler to FM's 'all is well' party
Oct 14, 2013
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1
Nawaz Sharif to raise issue of drone attacks with Obama
2
US took Nawaz Sharifs help to avert al-Qaeda attack: Reports
3
Violin that played as Titanic sank fetches over $1.6 mn at auction
4
Internal migrants contribute 10 pc to GDP, says UNESCO
5
China, Russia visits will create strategic opportunities for India: PM
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Why Prince Charming Rahul Gandhi can't win votes for Congress
The accusations of incompetence against Rahul again is solely based on the Congress performance in the government over the past nine
years.
Why Raghuram Rajan has to deliver a kick in UPA's pants
The only institution that can act to stem inflation right now is the RBI. Raghuram Rajan has a unique opportunity to deliver the system a
shock by raising interest rates by a larger-than-expected 0.5-1 percent. Politicians no longer have the credibility to act
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Shamed and scarred: Stories of 'legal' abortions in India
Abortion in India is legal in name only. It is most often a painful, shaming experience that often causes permanent medical damage.
Katiyabaaz: Documenting Kanpur's battle for electricity
This documentary about the terrible power situation in the industrial centre of Kanpur unfolds with all the drama and charm of a feature film.
Debt ceiling absurdity: How the US Fed is running a ponzi scheme
This is a perfect Ponzi scheme where the government is paying off old debt by issuing new debt.
Modi-led BJP now has momentum to cross 200 in 2014
The momentum is building for BJP in the run-up to 2014. The imponderables are UP and Bihar, but even here there is a pro-Modi trend.
Live: Respect the dead, says Rahul; Chouhan hits back
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Coalgate: Why the CBI's decision to file an FIR against Birla isn't wrong
The CBI hasnt erred in filing the FIR given the implication of impropriety but it should have filed it against all those who may be culpable.
Coalgate: logic of naming KM Birla is to tar system and maybe save PM
The CBIs decision to name Kumar Birla in an FIR related to the Coalgate scam smells fishy.
Jamiat chief Madani destroys Congress' Rahul vs Modi game plan
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Review: Akshay Kumar's Boss is shameless and mediocre
It is shamelessly mediocre cinematic swill posing as masala entertainment.
Without AAP, BJP would win Delhi elections, says expert
Delhi is a month away from assembly elections, and all three parties (BJP, Congress and AAP) are vying for an advantage. Where the state
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its biggest drawback: the lack of a strong []
Vadra's biceps and Modi's kurtas: Politics of fashion
Mirror, mirror on the wall, whos the fairest of them all? Our political movers and shakers might not dress flashily but it doesnt mean they
dont worry about their looks. Whether its Modi pondering new style choices, or Robert Vadra keeping his biceps and under a suit in India
our men dress to impress.
1 November: Buy iPhone 5s for Rs 54,000, 5c for Rs 42,000 in India
It has been confirmed that Apples iPhone 5 is coming to India on 1 November, and that the device will be sold by Airtel and RCom. The
iPhone 5s will cost Rs 54,000 while the cheaper iPhone 5c will cost Rs 42,000.
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US debt debate is hogwash: Uncle Sam has already defaulted
The argument between Democrats and Republicans over the US debt ceiling is really meaningless: it is guns versus butter as against guns
versus margarine. Nothing significant.
MP temple stampede: NDMA should also handle overcrowding
Its almost certain that every big temple festival in India will have some casualties because of over crowding and poor crowd-management.
How did we hold off Phailin but not MP temple stampede?
Preparedness works. That is the big message from Odisha and Andhra Pradesh and what should have been followed by authorities in the
Ratnagarh temple.
Cyclone Phailin: We should all be proud of Naveen Patnaik
Part of the reason Naveen Patnaik is getting all the praise is the fact that Phailin hit the state barely a few months after the great tragedy in
Uttarakhand.
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Amit Kumar: The wonderkid who could be the next Sushil Kumar
In a word, Amit Kumar is Indias wrestling wonderkid showing plenty of promise and fulfilling most of it.
Cyclone Phailin live: Cyclone shifts to Jharkhand, weakens to low pressure
Heavy rain brought by cyclone Phailin on Sunday triggered floods in Odisha, forcing authorities to evacuate thousands of people after rain
water entered their homes, officials said on Monday.
August IIP shows green shoots theorists were off the mark
With investment demand and consumer demand low, RBI will now be watching the inflation figures keenly before taking a view on future
action.
Sachin Tendulkar's 200th Test likely to be held at Wankhede Stadium
A top BCCI official said that Mumbai is almost certain to host the historic match though it will be made official only after the BCCIs tours
and fixtures committee meets.
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