100 percent unemployed-20141208

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Of Chessboards and Rice Ellermeyer Connect Breakfast October 22, 2014 10/22/2014 ©dbkAssociates, Inc. 2014 1 And 100% Unemployment

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Page 1: 100 percent unemployed-20141208

Of Chessboards and Rice

Ellermeyer Connect Breakfast

October 22, 2014

10/22/2014 ©dbkAssociates, Inc. 2014 1

And 100% Unemployment

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Premise – trending to 100% Unemployment

• There is no work related human activity that a machine will not do better

• If “we” can do it, we will do it — no stopping technology

• We are now on the steep part of the exponential technology growth curve

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What’s in a number?

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What happens if you put 1 grain of rice on the first space, 2 on the second, 4 on the third, and on . . .?You wind up with a rice stack as high as Everest!

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Here’s what that looks like

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Modern example: Moore’s Law

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Plot of CPU transistor counts against dates of introduction. Note the logarithmic scale on ordinate or “Y” axis; the trend line corresponds to exponential growth with transistor count doubling every two years.

From 28nm on, cost will go up as we double the transistors on a die.

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Kevin Surace

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Kevin Surace is an American technology innovator and serial entrepreneur. He is the CEO of Appvance, a provider of web app validation software and services. He was Inc. Magazine’s 2009 entrepreneur of the Year.Born: 7/12/62Education: Rochester Institute of Technology

“Humans will be obsolete by the year 2064.”— Kevin Surace, TEDx Orange Coast, 9/19/2014

Employment

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Andrew McAfee

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Andrew Paul McAfee is the associate director of the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management, studying the ways information technology affects businesses and studying business as a whole.Education: PhD, Harvard Business School

“I honestly believe that I’m gonna live to see a ridiculously bountiful economy that just doesn’t need very much human labor.”— Andrew McAfee, Council on Foreign Relations, 10/6/2014

Employment

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Mike Farmer – Leap.it

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The Start-Up Job Myth

When Mike Farmer started a digital search company in 2004, he had a staff of 10.

Today, in his third start-up, he has one employee: himself, aided by seven contractors working more or less part time.

His budget, like his head count, is smaller, and by his account the new model is much more sustainable.

Employment

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The 99.9%

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“At the same time that people like you and me are thriving beyond the dreams of any plutocrats in history, the rest of the country—the 99.99 percent—is lagging far behind. The divide between the haves and have-nots is getting worse really, really fast.”

NICK HANAUER IS ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL ENTREPRENEURS,

INVESTORS AND MANAGERS IN THE NORTHWEST

Employment

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Start-ups fewer and leaner

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Employment

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For more than 200 years . . .

• We have predicted technology killing jobs

• And, it HAS killed many jobs, AND . . .

• It has created more jobs in the end, AND

• It has created more wealth in the end. Still…

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Hasn’t it always been the “human dream” to be free from a job and just do what we want, when we want? To pursue

our passion regardless of financial rewards? Be careful what you wish for!

Employment

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So why different now?

• Between 31% and 34% contingent workers

– Project to be 40% by 2020

• Startups 4.7 employees vs 7.7 in 1999

• On-shored mfg. employs 50-80% of workers

• GDP is ~ 16.7 T with same employed as 14.7

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Exponential Growth in Technologytrumps all past history.

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Hope is not a strategy

So, now what?Don’t leave me in this funk.

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Accept reality

• We will not “stop” technology’s advance

• We must do all we can to embrace technology

• Must improve US education – STEM

• Encourage entrepreneurs and

• Portfolio work, independent contractors

• Be open to new economic models (guaranteed minimum incomes for everyone perhaps?)

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There is a little transition time

• Economic models willchange

• Business models willchange

• Collaboration is critical

• Real NetWORKING

• Re-invent yourself

• Free Agent – truly

• New ways to add value

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References

• The Age of Spiritual Machines – Ray Kurzweil

• The Second Machine Age – Erik Brynjolfsson

• Big Bang Disruption – Larry Downes

• Importance of Startups – Kauffman (2010)

• Don’t judge the Economy by startups – HBR

• The Era of Technological Unemployment –McAfee 10/6/14

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References - Continued

• This is probably a good time to say that I don’t believe robots will eat all the jobs. Marc Andreessen, 6/13/14

• Special report on the Economy – The economist, 10/4/2014

• The Pitchforks are Coming – Hanauer 7/2014

• Too Easy to Dismiss Tech Critics – Forbes 9/19/14

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References, Continued

• How To Avoid A Fully Automated Future –OnPoint podcast, Carr, 9/30/14

• Temp work raises long-term questions for economy – CBS News

• Trickle Of Jobs Returning To U.S. Shores Could Soon Become A Torrent – Forbes, 2/27/14

• Who actually creates jobs? Washington Post, 4/25/13

• Life at the Speed of Light – J. Craig Venter

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Discussion – Factory of the Future

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The factory of the future will have only two employees. A man and a dog. The man is there to feed the dog. The dog is there to keep the man from touching the equipment. — Warren G. Bennis