100% renewable energy system · 2016-12-07 · 100% renewable energy system 25 may 2016 6th china...
TRANSCRIPT
100% RENEWABLEENERGY SYSTEM
25 May 20166th China International Energy Storage Station Congress
Conference & Exhibition Center, Shenzhen, China
Pasi Vainikka
Principal scientist, VTT Technical research centre of FinlandAdjunct professor, Lappeenranta university of technology LUT
/ CONTENTS 1. Climate targets
2. Technology space and theongoing disruption
3. Case: North-East Asiarenewable power system andthe role of energy storages
/ CLIMATETARGETS
/ TECHNOLOGIES
NUCLEAR
CCS
RENEWABLES
Great electrification
/ ARCHITECTURE
SOLAR AND WIND
NEOCARBONISATION
BRIDGING
STORAGE
Currentbusiness
New businessopportunities
/ DISRUPTION
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
LNG
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200
1950
1955
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2005
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€/M
Wh
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
LNG
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1950
1955
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1985
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€/M
Wh
Solar PV
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
LNG
Wind Power
Li-ion battery
Power-to-gas
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1950
1955
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€/M
Wh
Solar PV
RESIDENTIAL
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
POWER PLANT
ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM
TRANSMISSION
/ NORTH-EAST ASIANSUPER GRID FOR100% RENEWABLEENERGY POWERSUPPLY
WP2: Energy System AnalysesWP2: Energy System Analyses
WP3: New Business arising from theEnergy Market’s Strategic ChangeWP3: New Business arising from theEnergy Market’s Strategic Change
WP4: Process simulationand modellingWP4: Process simulationand modelling
WP5: PtX conversionprocess developmentWP5: PtX conversionprocess development
WP6: International collaborationWP6: International collaboration
WP7:Management, disseminationWP7:Management, dissemination
WP1: Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-GrowthSociety – Transformative Energy Futures
Project work packages
Thank you to the team!Lead by Christian Breyer, professor for solar economy
The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish FundingAgency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the number 40101/14.
For your referenceNorth-East Asian Super Grid for 100% renewable energy supply: Optimal mix of energy technologies for electricity, gas and heatsupply options. Article in Energy Conversion and Management 112:176-190. March 2016.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291556438_North-East_Asian_Super_Grid_for_100_renewable_energy_supply_Optimal_mix_of_energy_technologies_for_electricity_gas_and_heat_supply_options
North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy Power Supply: Distributed Small-scale and Centralised Large-scaleSolar PV as a Major Energy Source. Conference Paper. September 2015. 31st EU PVSEC, At Hamburg.https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282027280_North-East_Asian_Super_Grid_for_100_Renewable_Energy_Power_Supply_Distributed_Small-scale_and_Centralised_Large-scale_Solar_PV_as_a_Major_Energy_Source
North-East Asian Super Grid: Renewable energy mix and economics. Article in Japanese Journal of Applied Physics54(8S1):08Kj01. August 2015. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280098413_North-East_Asian_Super_Grid_Renewable_energy_mix_and_economics
North-East Asian Super Grid: Renewable Energy Mix and Economics. Conference Paper. November 2014. 6th World Conferenceon Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC-6), At Kyoto. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268743535_North-East_Asian_Super_Grid_Renewable_Energy_Mix_and_Economics
Strategic target:simulation of global energy internet
Objective of the current workDefinition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply
• optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources,• optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and every sub-region of North-East Asia,• optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system,• least cost energy supply for the given constraints.
LUT Energy model, key features• linear optimization model• hourly resolution• multi-node approach• flexibility and expandability
Input data• historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind
speed and hydro precipitation• available sustainable resources for biomass and
geothermal energy• synthesized power load data• gas and water desalination demand• efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants• efficiency of energy conversion processes• capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources• min and max capacity limits for all RE resources• nodes and interconnections configuration
Scenarios assumptions15 regions
• West and East Japan (divided by 50/60Hz border)
• South and North Korea• 8 regions in China (based on State
Grid Corporation of China grid)• Mongolia• Russian regions: East Siberian and
Far East economy districts
Key data• ~1550 mio population• ~10000 TWh electricity demand (2030)• ~1653 GW peak load (2030)• ~22 mio km2 area• ~142 bil m3/a water desalination
demand (2030)
Capacity additions
Cumulative capacity
MethodologyFull system
Renewable energy sources• PV ground-mounted(optimally tilted)• PV rooftop• Wind onshore• Hydro run-of-river• Hydro dam• Geothermal• CSP• Waste• Biogas• Biomass
Electricity transmission• node-internal AC transmission• interconnected by HVDC lines
Storage options• Batteries• Pumped hydro storages• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas
• Water electrolysis• Methanation• CO2 from air• Gas storage
Energy Demand• Electricity• Water Desalination• Industrial Gas
Scenarios assumptionsGrid configurations
Assumption
Scenarios
Regional-wideopen trade
Country-wideopen trade
Area-wideopen trade
Area-wide open tradeDes-Gas
PV self-consumption X X X X
Water Desalination XIndustrial gasdemand X
• Regional-wide open trade• (no interconnections between regions)
• Country-wide open trade• (no interconnections between countries)
• Area-wide open trade• (country-wide HVDC grids are interconnected)
• Area-wide open trade with waterdesalination and industrial gas production
Scenarios assumptionsFinancial assumptions (year 2030)
Technology Capex[€/kW]
Opex fix[€/kW]
Opex var[€/kWh]
Lifetime[a]
PV fixed-tilted 550 8 0 35PV rooftop 813 12 0 35PV 1-axis 620 9 0 35Wind onshore 1000 20 0 25Hydro Run-of-River 2560 115.2 0.005 60Hydro Dam 1650 66 0.003 60Geothermal 4860 87 0 30Water electrolysis 380 13 0.001 30Methanation 234 5 0 30CO2 scrubbing 356 14 0.0013 30CCGT 775 19 0.002 30OCGT 475 14 0.011 30Biomass PP 2500 175 0.001 30Wood gasifier CHP 1500 20 0.001 40Biogas CHP 370 14.8 0.001 20Steam Turbine 700 14 0 30
Technology Capex[€/(m3∙h)]
Opex fix[€/(m3∙h)]
Opex var[€/(m3∙h)]
Lifetime[a]
Water Desalination 815 35 0 30
Generation costsTechnology Energy/Power Ratio [h]Battery 6PHS 8Gas Storage 80*24
Efficiency [%]Battery 90PHS 92Gas Storage 100Water Electrolysis 84CO2 Scrubbing 78Methanisation 77CCGT 58OCGT 43Geothermal 24MSW Incinerator 34Biogas CHP 40Steam Turbine 42CSP collector 51
Technology Capex[€/kWh]
Opex fix[€/(kWh∙a)]
Opex var[€/kWh]
Lifetime[a]
Battery 150 10 0.0002 10PHS 70 11 0.0002 50Gas Storage 0.05 0 0 50
Technology Capex[€/(m3∙h)]
Opex fix[€/(m3∙h∙a)]
Opex var[€/(m3∙h)]
Lifetime[a]
Water Storage 65 1 0 50
Technology Capex[€/(m3∙h∙km)]
Opex fix[€/(m3∙h∙km∙a)]
Opex var[m3∙h∙km]
Lifetime[a]
Horizontalpumping 15 2.3 0.0004 30
Vertical pumping 23 2.4 0.0036 30
Technology Capex[€/(kW∙km)]
Opex fix[€/(kW∙km∙a)] Opex var [€/kW] Lifetime
[a]TransmissionLine 0.612 0.0075 0 50
Technology Capex [€/kW] Opex fix [€/(kW∙a)] Opex var [€/kW] Lifetime [a]Converter Station 180 1.8 0 50
Scenarios assumptionsFinancial assumptions (year 2030)
Storage and transmission costs
WACC = 7%
Scenarios assumptionsFull load hours
Region PV fixed-tilted FLH
PV 1-axisFLH
CSPFLH
WindFLH
East Japan 1316 1536 1230 3362West Japan 1365 1604 1288 3204South Korea 1467 1733 1486 2946North Korea 1469 1749 1495 2890Northeast China 1457 1832 1706 3519North China 1592 2011 1844 3541East China 1340 1549 1228 2083Central China 1471 1726 1284 2608South China 1435 1678 1208 2310Tibet 1983 2719 2417 5208Northwest China 1739 2221 1963 3703Uygur 1666 2124 1957 2724Mongolia 1572 2062 1975 3288Russia Siberia 1158 1476 1380 3082Russia Far East 1136 1477 1397 2712
FLH of region computed as weighed average of regionalsub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each):
0%-10% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.310%-20% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.320%-30% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.230%-40% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.140%-50% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.1
Data: based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), 2009. SSE release 6.0)reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., 2012. Dissertation, Stuttgart)
Scenarios assumptionsPV and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2030)
Scenarios assumptionsGeneration profile (area aggregated)
PV generation profileAggregated area profile computed usingearlier presented weighed average rule.
Wind generation profileAggregated area profile computed usingearlier presented weighed average rule.
Scenarios assumptionsLoad (area aggregated)
Total load (2030)Synthesized load curves for each region
Total load (2030)- excluding PV prosumers
Key insights:• PV self-consumption reduces peak load by about 13%• grid cost reduced by PV self-consumption
/ RESULTS
Results
LCOW: 0.98 €/m3
LCOG: 0.142 €/kWh,gas
2030 ScenarioTotalLCOE
LCOEprimary LCOC LCOS LCOT Total ann.
costTotal
CAPEXRE
capacitiesGeneratedelectricity
[€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [bn €] [bn €] [GW] [TWh]Region-wide 0.077 0.042 0.003 0.032 0.000 790 6722 6642 12447Country-wide 0.072 0.041 0.003 0.025 0.003 724 6326 5891 11993Area-wide 0.068 0.041 0.002 0.021 0.004 697 6171 5609 11753Area-wideDes-Gas*,** 0.058 0.038 0.002 0.013 0.005 876 7939 7057 15322
TotalLCOE***
prosumer
LCOEprimary
prosumer
LCOSprosumer
Total ann.Cost
prosumer
TotalCAPEX
prosumer
REcapacitiesprosumer
Generatedelectricityprosumer
[€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [bn €] [bn €] [GW] [TWh]0.092 0.052 0.040 142 1290 1492 2184
* additional demand 82% gasand 18% desalination
** LCOS does not include the costfor the industrial gas (LCOG)
*** fully included in table above
ResultsComponents of LCOE – area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas
Area-wide open trade
Area-wide open trade desalination gas
ResultsSelf-Consumption – North-East Asia super-region area-wide open trade
2030RES COM IND
Electricity price [€/kWh] 0.152 0.143 0.142PV LCOE [€/kWh] 0.030 0.040 0.040Self-consumption PV LCOE [€/kWh] 0.047 0.056 0.054Self-consumption PV and Battery LCOE [€/kWh] 0.089 0.092 0.092Self-consumption LCOE [€/kWh] 0.078 0.085 0.086Benefit [€/kWh] 0.074 0.058 0.056
Installed capacities RES COM INDPV [GW] 307 286 900Battery storage [GWh] 410 339 1190
Generation RES COM INDPV [TWh] 443 413 1328Battery storage [TWh] 131 108 384Excess [TWh] 146 104 312
Utilization RES COM INDSelf-consumption of generated PV electricity [%] 63.7 72.0 73.3Self-coverage market segment [%] 18.2 14.4 15.1Self-coverage operators [%] 90.8 72.0 75.7
Source (electricity prices): Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Breyer Ch., 2014. Impact of Financing Cost onGlobal Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September 22-26
ResultsInstalled Capacities
2030Scenario
Wind PV HydroRoR
Hydrodams
Biogas Biomass Waste Geothermal Battery PHS PtGelectrolyzers GT
[GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWel] [GW]
Region-wide 1733 3951 115 191 66 80 5 6.5 5423 98 323 540Country-wide 1930 3093 115 191 99 67 4 6 4270 98 221 433Area-wide 2034 2750 112 195 110 67 4 6 3734 105 173 381Area-wideDes-Gas 2435 3929 113 195 54 50 4 5 4060 105 550 294
2030Scenario
PV0-axis
PV1-axis
PVprosumers
PVtotal
Batterysystem
Batteryprosumers
Batterytotal
[GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh]Region-wide 481 1977 1493 3951 3485 1938 5423Country-wide 72 1528 1493 3093 2332 1938 4270Area-wide 1 1256 1493 2750 1796 1938 3734Area-wideDes-Gas 1 2435 1493 3929 2122 1938 4060
ResultsRegions Electricity Capacities – area-wide open trade
• Importing regions generateeconomic benefit from significantlocal PV self-consumption share
Key insights:• Area-wide desalination gas scenario
is dominated by PV• PV 1-axis and wind are the main
sources of electricity for waterdesalination and industrial gasproduction, especially for importingregions
Key insights:• Area-wide scenario
shows high PVcapacities due to(prosumer) LCOEcompetitiveness inmajority of theregions
Area-wide open trade
Area-wide open trade desalination gas
ResultsImport / Export (year 2030)
Area-wide open trade
Key insights:• Net Importers: Japan, South Korea, East China• Net Exporters: Russia, Tibet, North and Northwest China
0100200300400500600700800900
1000
Independent sectors Integrated system
Tota
lann
ualc
ost(
bn€)
Axis Title
02000400060008000
1000012000140001600018000
Independent sectors Integrated system
Tota
lEle
ctric
ityge
nera
tion
RE
(TW
h)
ResultsBenefits of electricity and industrial gas sectors integration – Area-wide desalination gas
Key insights:• integration benefits: decrease in total
electricity demand and total annuallevelized cost
• descrease in total electricity curtailmentlosses of 17% (163 TWh absolute) and intotal capex by 6% (55 bn€ absolute)
Ind Gas SectorDesalinationSector
Power Sector
Ind Gas Sector
DesalinationSector
Power Sector
6% relative integration benefit55.2 bn€ absolute integration benefit
4.3 % relative integration benefit688 TWh absolute integration benefit
/ STORAGES
ResultsStorages
Storage capacities Throughput of storages Full cycles per year
2030 ScenarioBattery PHS Gas Battery PHS Gas Battery PHS Gas[TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [-] [-] [-]
Region-wide 5.4 0.1 492 1674 22 1069 308.6 219.7 2.2Country-wide 4.3 0.1 470 1358 23 846 318.1 232.7 1.8Area-wide 3.7 0.1 441 1203 26 710 322.3 248.5 1.6Area-wideDes-Gas 4.1 0.1 462 1267 24 349 312.1 226.3 0.8
ResultsStorages Capacities – area-wide
Key insights:• Hydro dams as virtual battery very
important, batteries in a key role forprosumers but also on the grid level andgas storages for balancing periods ofwind and solar shortages
/ HOURLYOPERATION
ResultsNet importer region – South Korea
ResultsBalancing region – Northwest China
ResultsNet exporter region – Tibet
As complex as it can get?Case East Japan 2050
/ ENERGYEFFICIENCY!
ResultsEnergy flow of the System of area-wide open trade (2030)
ResultsEnergy flow of the System of area-wide open trade desalination gas
(2030)
ResultsEnergy flow of the System of region-wide open trade scenario (2030)
Key insights:• Even for region-wide open trade scenario CSP and thermal
storages do not play a significant role. PV in total is a majorenergy source.
Summary• 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable in North-East Asia!• super grid interconnection decrease average cost of electricity to 0.068 €/kWh of the total area from 0.072
€/kWh (country-only) and 0.077 €/kWh (region-only)• integration benefit of gas and desalination is about 4-6% (generation and cost ) due more efficient usage
of storage and flexibility options• in 2030, for region scenario PV technologies dominate in the electricity sector in most regions of North-
East Asia, however for country and area-wide open trade scenarios wind starts to play the most importantrole
• hydro dams can be used as a virtual battery for solar and wind electricity storage, in the same time RoRhydro is not cost competitive to PV and Wind
• the shift to power in the gas, desalination, heat and mobility sector will be driven by higher supply of leastcost solar PV and wind sites
• despite an upper limit 50% higher than the current capacity for hydro dams and RoR, in all the consideredscenarios PV and wind are more profitable technologies according to the availability of the regions’resources
• 100% RE system is more cost competitive than a nuclear-fossil option!
/ CONTACTVTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLANDMr Pasi VAINIKKADSc (Tech.)Principal Scientist, Adjunct Professor
Skinnarilankatu 34, LappeenrantaP.O.Box 20, FI-53851 LAPPEENRANTA, FINLAND
Tel. +358 40 5825 [email protected]/neocarbonenergyTwitter: @neocarbonenergy
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