Global futures and Strategic Foresight for wheat and maize: progress and way

forward - CIMMYTGlobal Futures and Strategic Foresight for Maize and Wheat:

progress and challenges

CIMMYT Foresight Team

May 26, 2015

Rome, Italy

Outline• Team members• Progress on research activities:– Quantification of bio-economic impact of improved

wheat technologies– DT wheat in CWANA: do adoption pathways matter? – Calibration of dynamic CGE models: maize- and

wheat-based systems– Quantification of impact of heat-tolerant maize in

South Asia– Efforts on global maize baseline modeling– Other activities: diseases and pest modeling; IAAE;

• Way forward

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Global Futures and Strategic Foresight at CIMMYT

Core team• Crop modeling (Kindie )• Economist (Sika )• SEP director (Olaf)Supporting team (CRP Maize and Wheat) GIS analysis (Kai) BM Prasanna (maize breeder) Dan Makumbi (maize breeder) Jill Cairns (maize physiologist) Bis Das (maize breeder; pathologist) Tom Payne (wheat breeder) Marta Lopes (wheat breeder) Mathew Reynolds (wheat physiologist) Etienne Duveiller (wheat pathologist)

Bio-economic impact of promising wheat technologies

• Objectives– Model promising wheat technologies (tolerance to

drought, heat and combined heat and drought)• Validate simulated productivity of promising technologies

with data collected by breeders in field trials

– Quantify impact of promising wheat technologies on global food security

• Status: draft paper is in process of being written

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Partnerships

• Kenneth Boote – Univ of Florida (maize modeling)• Senthold Asseng – Univ of Florida (wheat modeling)• Daniel Mason-D'Croz – IMPACT model (IFPRI)• Richard Robertson – spatial crop modeling (IFPRI)• Keith Wiebe – IFPRI• Bekele Shiferaw – Socio-economic modeling (Policy for

Economic Partnership - PEP)• Uran Chung – cluster modeling for wheat (APEC)

DT wheat in CWANA: do adoption pathways matter?

• Objective: use bio-economic model to quantify impact of DT wheat on global food security under various adoption pathways in CWANA

• Status: draft results were ready in November 2014 using IMPACT 2; got updated results using IMPACT 3 (problems with calorific intake); getting updated results using IMPACT 3.2

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Calibration of dynamic CGE model: maize- and wheat-based systems

• Objective: quantify economy-wide impact of promising technologies in maize- and wheat-based systems in Africa and Asia

• Countries: Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Pakistan, India

• Status: all models have been calibrated and baseline runs are ok; for Kenya and India, preliminary results on impact of promising technologies; special issue in journal

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• Increase in maize productivity: real income of households involved in maize activities (farmers; etc.) and consumer prices fall; households gain (smaller than gain in IMPACT)

• Increase in wheat productivity: real income gain for households which translate into increased consumption

• Increase in maize and wheat productivity + decrease in transport margin (infrastructure): greatest impact

Baseline global maize production• Efforts underway

to develop global baseline maize simulations: different crop management (e.g., split application of fertilizer for rainfed and irrigated maize)

• Simulation against FAOSTAT data

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f(x) = 0.517038485310893 x + 1378.84381702102R² = 0.672097845678274

1:1

Yield from FAO (kg/ha) for major producers

Sim

ulat

ed Y

ield

(kg/

ha)

Other activities• Pest and disease modeling for wheat and

maize:– Attended February workshop (AgMIP)– Action points: meeting on incorporating wheat

pests and diseases• IPR review:– Positive response from breeders and physiologists:

with maintenance research, what would be projected productivity growth rate?

• Follow-up workshop on crop modeling: planned for 2015; good collaboration

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IAAE conference• Symposium on ‘Interpreting results from using

bio-economic modeling for global and regional ex ante impact assessment’: accepted for IAAE conference

• By June 2015, we’ll need to:– Speakers: registered and paid for conference;

Cynthia, Keith, and John Antle– Background papers are uploaded on IAAE website:

discussion paper on promising technologies (Keith); draft presentation for Cynthia (take lead on this)

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1. Key outputs: Papers under journal submission

• Papers under journal submission:– Impact of promising wheat technologies– DT wheat in vulnerable countries: do adoption

pathways matter?– Using CGE models to assess impact of promising

maize and wheat technologies– Impact of heat-tolerant maize in South Asia

Thank You!

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