Climate ChangeSession 11 – Copenhagen Special Session

Dr Becky Briant

The Copenhagen Climate ExerciseAvailable at: http://www.climateinteractive.org/

Assigning GroupsAssigning Groups“I Can Most Identify With…” (pick one)1. The island nations, Africa, less-developed Asia and , , p

the global lowest income people who deal day to day with the effects of climate change

2 The industrialized nations that struggle with making 2. The industrialized nations that struggle with making the biggest changes in their economies, energy infrastructure, and habits of life in order to reduce CO emissionsCO2 emissions

3. The less-developed nations that have the possibility of raising living standards and addressing g g gwidespread poverty at home, and look to the developed world to begin significant emissions reductions.

Roles / Groups

Developed NationsLed by US EU Japan but also Russia/FSUs/ Eastern

/ p

Led by US, EU, Japan, but also Russia/FSUs/ Eastern Europe, South Korea, Australia/NZ, Canada

Developing ALed by China, India, Brazil, but also South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, Phillipines, Thailand, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singaporeg p

Developing BSmall Island Nations and “LDCs”, representing Other S ll A i C t l/S th A i Middl E t B l d hSmall Asia, Central/South America, Middle East, Bangladesh

Welcome Delegatesg

2009 UN Climate Summit

Our Global TaskOur Global Task

Manage the Unavoidablegand

Avoid the Unmanageable

Your Goals by 20:00Your Goals by 20:00

Achieve emissions reduction commitments that stabilize CO2levels in the atmosphere around or levels in the atmosphere around or below 450 ppm by 2100Agree on a deal to share costs of Mitigation and Adaptation Fundg p

Baseline DataBaseline Data

Developed Nations: Steady Growth in EmissionsSteady Growth in Emissions

12 B

9 B

6 B

onsC

/yea

r

3 B

to

Developed

Source: CDIAC, WEO, C-ROADS

01908 1928 1948 1968 1988 2008

Developing A Nations: Emissions RisingDeveloping A Nations: Emissions Rising12 B

9 B

6 B

onsC

/yea

r

3 B

to

Developed

01908 1928 1948 1968 1988 2008

Source: CDIAC, WEO, C-ROADS

Developing B Nations: Emissions Rising

12 B

9 B

6 B

onsC

/yea

r

3 B

to

Developed

01908 1928 1948 1968 1988 2008

Source: CDIAC, WEO, C-ROADS

Global Deforestation emissions

12 B

9 B

6 B

onsC

/yea

r

3 B

to

Developed

01908 1928 1948 1968 1988 2008

Source: CDIAC, WEO, C-ROADS

Baseline DataBaseline Data

How will we assess our decisions?How will we assess our decisions?

1990 baseline1990 baseline

C-ROADS Projections vs. AR4 Ensemble

*

** * *

*4

3

2D

egre

esC

*1

0

IPCC AR4 Fig. SPM.5

Task 1

Each Group will set its own fossil fuel emissions targetsYou will set:

Reference yearStart yearTarget yearTarget year% change

Developing Countries A and B will set future deforestation and Developing Countries A and B will set future deforestation and afforestation

Deforestation: a value of 1 yields constant emissions through 2050, 0 yields a 90% drop by 2050, and 0.5 yields a drop of 45%.p y , y pAfforestation: a "0-1" index for the annual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere due to the creation of new forests, starting in 2009 and continuing until 2050. A value of 1 delivers the IPCC estimated maximum of 1 6 b ll b d 0 5 d l h lf f h 1.6 billion tons carbon removed per year; 0.5 delivers half of the maximum.

Task 2Task 2We are creating the “UN Global Fund for Mitigation and Adaptation” forand Adaptation for

Disaster reliefFood and waterImmigration and refugeesMitigation - Investing in any necessary non-cost-saving mitigation to achieve Task 1 goals

Total cost is $X per year for next 10 yearsWhat is your proposal for the fraction of the annual y p pcost each Group should pay? And why?

You Can Change These in the next 20 minutesYou Can Change These in the next 20 minutes

Ref Start Target % Future Future % % % year year

gyear chg defores

-tationaffores-tation

contribD’ped

contribD’pingA

contribD’pingB

D’ped X XD ped X X

D’ping A

D’ping B

Example 1990 2012 2050 -80 0.6 0.3 10% 15% 75%

After 20 minutesAfter 20 minutesEach group will:

1 Confirm submitted new emissions commitment or 1. Confirm submitted new emissions commitment or confirm “business as usual”

2. Give a 3-minute presentation about their emissions preduction commitment, their Fund commitment and why they have chosen these

T h illTogether, we will:1. Simulate climate results and learn if we are on track to

meet our goal and agree on a division of Fund costsmeet our goal and agree on a division of Fund costs2. If necessary, prepare for the next round

Debrief

Feeling and experienceFeeling and experience

In pairs:Complete the sentence, “When I played my role in the policy exercise, I felt…” y p y(actual feelings, not thoughts about climate change or analysis about the climate change or analysis about the exercise - angry, sad, glad, confused, etc.)

I th h l h iIn the whole group - share experiences

AssumptionsAssumptions

In pairs:Discuss the assumptions you found yourselves making both about your yourselves making, both about your own group and about other groups

In the whole group - share experiencesexperiences

What about current actual proposals?

www.climateinteractive.org/scoreboard

What about current actual proposals?

www.climateinteractive.org/scoreboard

Current actual proposalsCurrent actual proposals

Group 1990 annual CO2emissions

2030 annual CO2emissions

% change

OECD+ 10.4 tpc x 1090 m 5.7 tpc x 1334 m = -33%= 11336 m t 7603.8 m t

Other Major Economies

3.4 tpc x 1605 m = 5457 m t

5.2 tpc x 2140 m = 11128 m t

+200%

Other Countries 1.4 tpc x 2568 m = 3595.2 m t

1.4 tpc x 4753 m = 6654.2 m t

+185%

IEA ‘450 IEA 450 scenario’

IEA 450 i CIEA 450 scenario C-Learn results

Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 1Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 1International Institute for Environment and Development (2009) COP15 for journalists: a guide Development (2009). COP15 for journalists: a guide to the UN climate change summit. Available from: http://www.iied.org/climate-change/media/cop15-for-p g g pjournalists-guide-un-climate-change-summitDECC’s Copenhagen pages: http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/en/media-centre/negotiations/UNFCC Daily Programme: http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/conference_programme/daily programme/items/5068 phpmme/daily_programme/items/5068.php

Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 2Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 2Two parallel sets of talks:

Kyoto second commitment period – Ad-hoc Working Group F h C i f A 1 P i d h K on Further Commitments for Annex 1 Parties under the Kyoto

Protocol (AWG-KP)Bali Action Plan – new negotiating track aimed at bringing US into line with other developed nations Ad hoc Working Group into line with other developed nations. Ad-hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA).

Agreement required by the end of COP15:Agreement required by the end of COP15:Shared visionMitigationAdaptationAdaptationTechnology transfer and development (both adaptation and mitigation)Finance and investmentFinance and investment

Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 3Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 3Negotiating blocks (number of countries):

G77/ China (130)G77/ China (130)African Group (50)Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) (43)Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) (43)Least Developed Countries (LDCs) (49)European Union (EU) (27)Umbrella Group (10)(Environmental Integrity Group)(Organisation of Oil Producing Countries (OPEC) (13)

Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 4Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 4Possible COP15 outcomes:

No agreementNo agreementA decision or set of decisionsA political ‘implementing agreement’ - not legally bindingA single new legally binding agreement (Copenhagen Protocol) - replaces the Kyoto Protocol includes Protocol) replaces the Kyoto Protocol, includes additional issues such as adaptationTwo protocols:

amended Kyoto Protocolnew legally binding agreement as above

Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 5Bluffers Guide to Copenhagen # 5Hot topics:

Shared vision – targets – types and end-yearsg yp yREDD - reducing emissions from deforestation and (forest) degradation in developing countriesFossil fuels – OPEC compensation?Fossil fuels OPEC compensation?Vulnerability – who is vulnerable?Intellectual property for technology transferFinance

World Bank estimates for developing nations:US$400 billion per year for mitigationp y gUS$75- 100 billion per year for adaptation

Funding requirementHow funding will be raisedgHow funding will be disbursed and used

Interesting referencesInteresting referencesNew et al. (2009). Mind the gap. Nature Reports Climate Change doi:10.1038/climate.2009.126. Available from: http://www nature com/climate/2009/0912/pdf/climate 2009 12http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0912/pdf/climate.2009.126.pdfCheck out the automatically-updating Climate Scoreboard that you can embed in blogs Facebook etc at you can embed in blogs, Facebook etc.. at http://www.climateinteractive.org/scoreboardCheck out the ‘bathtub simulator’ at: http://scripts mit edu/~jfmartin/sip/master/http://scripts.mit.edu/ jfmartin/sip/master/Sterman, J. and L. Booth Sweeney (2007). Understanding Public Complacency About Climate Change: Adults' Mental Models of Climate Change Violate Conservation of Matter, Climatic Climate Change Violate Conservation of Matter, Climatic Change 80(3-4): 213-238. Available from: http://scripts.mit.edu/~jsterman/docs/Sterman-2007-UnderstandingPublicComplacency.pdfg p y p

What has happened today?

Birkbeck results 8th December 2009Birkbeck results 8 December 2009Refyear

Start year

Target year

% chg

Future deforestation

Future afforestation

% contribD’ped

% contribD’ping

% contribD’ping-tation -tation D ped D ping

AD pingB

D’ped 2005 2015 2099 -10 X X 20 51 282005 2012 2080 12 X X 35 65 02005 2012 2080 -12 X X 35 65 01990 2012 2099 -20 X X 49 51 0

D’ping A 2005 2012 2050 -5 0.5 0.5 90 5 52005 2020 2099 +25 0.5 0.5 100 0 02005 2015 2099 +100 0.3 0.7 100 0 0

D’ping B 1990 2009 2050 +100 1 0 80 20 02005 2015 2050 +75 0.9 0 48 51 02005 2015 2050 +100 0.3 0.7 100 0 0

Total fossil fuel emissions - comparativeTotal fossil fuel emissions comparative

Global emissions total - comparativeGlobal emissions total comparative

CO2 in atmosphere – comparativeCO2 in atmosphere comparative

Temperature -comparativeTemperature comparative

Sea level rise - comparativeSea level rise comparative